Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis transmission for the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain). To do this, we used a set of key variables related to parasite transmission: the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated via an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of Dirofilaria spp. generations. The resulting model was validated with the prevalence and geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all provinces and districts. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. A quantitative estimate of the risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp. was obtained at a resolution of 1 km². The entire analyzed territory was susceptible to contact with the parasite. The highest risk of infection was found throughout the eastern coastal strip and the south of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, as well as in the areas surrounding the basins of the main rivers, and the lowest risk was located in the higher-altitude areas. We found a robust and positive relationship between the risk of dirofilariosis and the observed prevalence of infested dogs in the study area (β ± SE = 3.32 ± 1.43 p < 0.05). In 2080, the percentage of territory gain for Cx. pipiens will increase to 49.98%, which will increase the risk of infection. This new model provides a high predictive value for the current and predicted presence and risk and can serve as a tool for the management and control of dirofilariosis.

Heartworm disease is a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by Dirofilaria immitis. The Canary Islands (Spain), geolocated close to the coast of Western Sahara, is an archipelago considered hyperendemic where the average prevalence in domestic dogs is high, heterogeneous, and non-uniform. In addition, Culex theileri has been reported as a vector of the disease on two of the most populated islands. Our aim was to develop a more accurate transmission risk model for dirofilariosis for the Canary Islands. For this purpose, we used different variables related to parasite transmission; the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex spp. was calculated using the ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of D. immitis. The resulting model was validated with the geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all islands. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. There is a risk of transmission on all islands, being high in coastal areas, moderate in midland areas, and minimal in higher altitude areas. Most of the dogs infected with D. immitis were geolocated in areas with a high risk of transmission. In 2080, the percentage of territory that will have been gained by Culex spp. is small (5.02%), although it will occur toward the midlands from coastal areas. This new model provides a high predictive power for the study of cardiopulmonary dirofilariosis in the Canary Islands, as a hyperendemic area of the disease, and can be used as a tool for its prevention and control.

The Spanish Castilla y León region is one of the most important wintering areas in Europe for the Red Kite Milvus milvus. At the same time, the steepest population declines of Red Kite have been recorded there, electrocution by power lines being one of the main causes. Thus, knowledge about the annual spatio-temporal ecology of this raptor, and its relationship to electrocution events, is necessary to develop effective conservation measures. Distribution models for the breeding and wintering populations of the Red Kite in Castilla y León were developed, considering climate, topography and land uses, to analyse the potential spatial variation between them. Models for electrocution risk also considered the technical characteristics of the power poles to determine their impact on electrocution events in both seasons. Our results show two different areas are used seasonally: 1) an important wintering area in the centre of the region, characterised by crop zones, moderate temperatures, rubbish dump sites and human presence, and 2) a nesting area in the south of the region, in which the availability of livestock carcasses, low levels of precipitation, distance from landfills and gentle relief were the most influential variables. The electrocution risk model indicates that the most suitable areas for Red Kite reproduction are also those that are most risky, including power poles of the most dangerous types; those with straight or vaulted cross-arms. Finally, the theoretical approach presented here provides a framework for the design of management and control measures aimed at minimising Red Kite electrocutions in the northern half of the Iberian Peninsula. —Crespo-Luengo, G., Hernández-Lambraño, R.E., Barbero-Bermejo, I. & Sánchez-Agudo, J.A. (2020). Analysis of spatio-temporal patterns of Red Kite Milvus milvus electrocution. Ardeola, 67: 247-268.