Predicting alfalfa biomass and crop yield for livestock feed is important to the daily lives of virtually everyone, and many features of data from this domain combined with corresponding weather data can be used to train machine learning models for yield prediction. In this work, we used yield data of different alfalfa varieties from multiple years in Kentucky and Georgia, and we compared the impact of different feature selection methods on machine learning (ML) models trained to predict alfalfa yield. Linear regression, regression trees, support vector machines, neural networks, Bayesian regression, and nearest neighbors were all developed with cross validation. The features used included weather data, historical yield data, and the sown date. The feature selection methods that were compared included a correlation-based method, the ReliefF method, and a wrapper method. We found that the best method was the correlation-based method, and the feature set it found consisted of the Julian day of the harvest, the number of days between the sown and harvest dates, cumulative solar radiation since the previous harvest, and cumulative rainfall since the previous harvest. Using these features, the k-nearest neighbor and random forest methods achieved an average R value over 0.95, and average mean absolute error less than 200 lbs./acre. Our top R² of 0.90 beats a previous work’s best R² of 0.87. Our primary contribution is the demonstration that ML, with feature selection, shows promise in predicting crop yields even on simple datasets with a handful of features, and that reporting accuracies in R and R² offers an intuitive way to compare results among various crops.

The total boll count from a plant is one of the most important phenotypic traits for cotton breeding and is also an important factor for growers to estimate the final yield. With the recent advances in deep learning, many supervised learning approaches have been implemented to perform phenotypic trait measurement from images for various crops, but few studies have been conducted to count cotton bolls from field images. Supervised learning models require a vast number of annotated images for training, which has become a bottleneck for machine learning model development. The goal of this study is to develop both fully supervised and weakly supervised deep learning models to segment and count cotton bolls from proximal imagery. A total of 290 RGB images of cotton plants from both potted (indoor and outdoor) and in-field settings were taken by consumer-grade cameras and the raw images were divided into 4350 image tiles for further model training and testing. Two supervised models (Mask R-CNN and S-Count) and two weakly supervised approaches (WS-Count and CountSeg) were compared in terms of boll count accuracy and annotation costs. The results revealed that the weakly supervised counting approaches performed well with RMSE values of 1.826 and 1.284 for WS-Count and CountSeg, respectively, whereas the fully supervised models achieve RMSE values of 1.181 and 1.175 for S-Count and Mask R-CNN, respectively, when the number of bolls in an image patch is less than 10. In terms of data annotation costs, the weakly supervised approaches were at least 10 times more cost efficient than the supervised approach for boll counting. In the future, the deep learning models developed in this study can be extended to other plant organs, such as main stalks, nodes, and primary and secondary branches. Both the supervised and weakly supervised deep learning models for boll counting with low-cost RGB images can be used by cotton breeders, physiologists, and growers alike to improve crop breeding and yield estimation.

Increased Intracranial Pressure (ICP) is a serious and often life-threatening condition. If the increased pressure pushes on critical brain structures and blood vessels, it can lead to serious permanent problems or even death. In this study, we propose a novel regression model to forecast ICP episodes in children, 30 min in advance, by using the dynamic characteristics of continuous intracranial pressure, vitals and medications during the last two hours. The correlation between physiological parameters, including blood pressure, respiratory rate, heart rate and the ICP, is analyzed. Linear regression, Lasso regression, support vector machine and random forest algorithms are used to forecast the next 30 min of the recorded ICP. Finally, dynamic features are created based on vitals, medications and the ICP. The weak correlation between blood pressure and the ICP (0.2) is reported. The Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of the random forest model decreased from 1.6 to 0.89% by using the given medication variables in the last two hours. The random forest regression gave an accurate model for the ICP forecast with 0.99 correlation between the forecast and experimental values.

Alfalfa is critical to global food security, and its data is abundant in the U.S. nationally, but often scarce locally, limiting the potential performance of machine learning (ML) models in predicting alfalfa biomass yields. Training ML models on local-only data results in very low estimation accuracy when the datasets are very small. Therefore, we explore synthesizing non-local data to estimate biomass yields labeled as high, medium, or low. One option to remedy scarce local data is to train models using non-local data; however, this only works about as well as using local data. Therefore, we propose a novel pipeline that trains models using data synthesized from non-local data to estimate local crop yields. Our pipeline, synthesized non-local training (SNLT pronounced like sunlight), achieves a gain of 42.9% accuracy over the best results from regular non-local and local training on our very small target dataset. This pipeline produced the highest accuracy of 85.7% with a decision tree classifier. From these results, we conclude that SNLT can be a useful tool in helping to estimate crop yields with ML. Furthermore, we propose a software application called Predict Your CropS (PYCS pronounced like Pisces) designed to help farmers and researchers estimate and predict crop yields based on pretrained models.

We provide a method of translating theories of Nute's defeasible logic into logic programs, and a corresponding translation in the opposite direction. Under certain natural restrictions, the conclusions of defeasible theories under the ambiguity propagating defeasible logic ADL correspond to those of the well-founded semantics for normal logic programs, and so it turns out that the two formalisms are closely related. Using the same translation of logic programs into defeasible theories, the semantics for the ambiguity blocking defeasible logic NDL can be seen as indirectly providing an ambiguity blocking semantics for logic programs. We also provide antimonotone operators for both ADL and NDL, each based on the Gelfond–Lifschitz (GL) operator for logic programs. For defeasible theories without defeaters or priorities on rules, the operator for ADL corresponds to the GL operator and so can be seen as partially capturing the consequences according to ADL. Similarly, the operator for NDL captures the consequences according to NDL, though in this case no restrictions on theories apply. Both operators can be used to define stable model semantics for defeasible theories.

Previous work used machine learning (ML) to estimate past and current alfalfa yields and showed that domain adaptation (DA) with data synthesis shows promise in classifying yields as high, medium, or low. The current work uses similar techniques to forecast future alfalfa yields. A novel technique is proposed for forecasting alfalfa time series data that exploits stationarity and predicts differences in yields rather than the yields themselves. This forecasting technique generally provides more accurate forecasts than the established ARIMA family of forecasters for both univariate and multivariate time series. Furthermore, this ML-based technique is potentially easier to use than the ARIMA family of models. Also, previous work is extended by showing that DA with data synthesis also works well for predicting continuous values, not just for classification. The novel scale-invariant tabular synthesizer (SITS) is proposed, and it is competitive with or superior to other established synthesizers in producing data that trains strong models. This synthesis algorithm leads to R scores over 100% higher than an established synthesizer in this domain, while ML-based forecasters beat the ARIMA family with symmetric mean absolute percent error (sMAPE) scores as low as 12.81%. Finally, ML-based forecasting is combined with DA (ForDA) to create a novel pipeline that improves forecast accuracy with sMAPE scores as low as 9.81%. As alfalfa is crucial to the global food supply, and as climate change creates challenges with managing alfalfa, this work hopes to help address those challenges and contribute to the field of ML.