The first UKCCCR Anal Cancer Trial (1996) demonstrated the benefit of chemoradiation over radiotherapy (RT) alone for treating epidermoid anal cancer, and it became the standard treatment. Patients in this trial have now been followed up for a median of 13 years. A total of 577 patients were randomised to receive RT alone or combined modality therapy using 5-fluorouracil and mitomycin C. All patients were scheduled to receive 45 Gy by external beam irradiation. Patients who responded to treatment were recommended to have boost RT, with either an iridium implant or external beam irradiation. Data on relapse and deaths were obtained until October 2007. Twelve years after treatment, for every 100 patients treated with chemoradiation, there are an expected 25.3 fewer patients with locoregional relapse (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.5–32.0 fewer) and 12.5 fewer anal cancer deaths (95% CI: 4.3–19.7 fewer), compared with 100 patients given RT alone. There was a 9.1% increase in non-anal cancer deaths in the first 5 years of chemoradiation (95% CI +3.6 to +14.6), which disappeared by 10 years. The clear benefit of chemoradiation outweighs an early excess risk of non-anal cancer deaths, and can still be seen 12 years after treatment. Only 11 patients suffered a locoregional relapse as a first event after 5 years, which may influence the choice of end points in future studies.

In stage III colon cancer, oxaliplatin/5-fluorouracil (5-FU)-based adjuvant chemotherapy (FOLFOX) improves disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). In rectal adenocarcinoma following neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT), we examined the benefit of postoperative adjuvant capecitabine and oxaliplatin (XELOX) chemotherapy. Eligible patients were randomly assigned following fluoropyrimidine-based CRT and curative resection to observation or six cycles of XELOX. The primary end point was DFS; secondary end points were acute toxicity and OS. 390 patients were required in each arm, to detect an improvement in 3-year DFS from 40% to 50.5%, with 85% power and two-sided 5% significance level. The study closed prematurely in 2008 because of poor accrual. Only 113 patients were randomly assigned to either observation (n = 59) or XELOX (n = 54). Compliance was poor, 93% allocated chemotherapy started and 48% completed six cycles. Protocolised dose reductions in XELOX were 39%, and levels of G3/G4 toxicity 40%. After a median follow-up of 44.8 months, 16 patients (27%) in the observation arm had relapsed or died compared with 12 patients (22%) in XELOX. The 3-year DFS rate was 78% with XELOX and 71% with observation [hazard ratio (HR) for DFS = 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38–1.69; P = 0.56]. The 3-year OS for XELOX and observation were 89% and 88%, respectively (HR for OS = 1.18; 95% CI 0.43–3.26; P = 0.75). The observed improvement in DFS for adjuvant XELOX and similar OS were not statistically significant, as expected given the small number of patients and consequent low power. Our findings support the need for trials that test the role of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. NCT00427713.

Guidelines for anal cancer recommend assessment of response at 6-12 weeks after starting treatment. Using data from the ACT II trial, we determined the optimum timepoint to assess clinical tumour response after chemoradiotherapy. The previously reported ACT II trial was a phase 3 randomised trial of patients of any age with newly diagnosed, histologically confirmed, squamous cell carcinoma of the anus without metastatic disease from 59 centres in the UK. We randomly assigned patients (by minimisation) to receive either intravenous mitomycin (one dose of 12 mg/m2 on day 1) or intravenous cisplatin (one dose of 60 mg/m2 on days 1 and 29), with intravenous fluorouracil (one dose of 1000 mg/m2 per day on days 1-4 and 29-32) and radiotherapy (50·4 Gy in 28 daily fractions); and also did a second randomisation after initial therapy to maintenance chemotherapy (fluorouracil and cisplatin) or no maintenance chemotherapy. The primary outcome was complete clinical response (the absence of primary and nodal tumour by clinical examination), in addition to overall survival and progression-free survival from time of randomisation. In this post-hoc analysis, we analysed complete clinical response at three timepoints: 11 weeks from the start of chemoradiotherapy (assessment 1), 18 weeks from the start of chemoradiotherapy (assessment 2), and 26 weeks from the start of chemoradiotherapy (assessment 3) as well as the overall and progression-free survival estimates of patients with complete clinical response or without complete clinical response at each assessment. We analysed both the overall trial population and a subgroup of patients who had attended each of the three assessments by modified intention-to-treat. This study is registered at controlled-trials.com, ISRCTN 26715889. We enrolled 940 patients from June 4, 2001, until Dec 16, 2008. Complete clinical response was achieved in 492 (52%) of 940 patients at assessment 1 (11 weeks), 665 (71%) of patients at assessment 2 (18 weeks), and 730 (78%) of patients at assessment 3 (26 weeks). 691 patients attended all three assessments and in this subgroup, complete clinical response was reported in 441 (64%) patients at assessment 1, 556 (80%) at assessment 2, and 590 (85%) at assessments 3. 151 (72%) of the 209 patients who had not had a complete clinical response at assessment 1 had a complete clinical response by assessment 3. In the overall trial population of 940 patients, 5 year overall survival in patients who had a clinical response at assessments 1, 2, 3 was 83% (95% CI 79-86), 84% (81-87), and 87% (84-89), respectively and was 72% (66-78), 59% (49-67), and 46% (37-55) for patients who did not have a complete clinical response at assessments 1, 2, 3, respectively. In the subgroup of 691 patients, 5 year overall survival in patients who had a clinical response at assessment 1, 2, 3 was 85% (81-88), 86% (82-88), and 87% (84-90), respectively, and was 75% (68-80), 61% (50-70), and 48% (36-58) for patients who did not have a complete clinical response at assessment 1, 2, 3, respectively. Similarly, progression-free survival in both the overall trial population and the subgroup was longer in patients who had a complete clinical response, compared with patients who did not have a complete clinical response, at all three assessments. Many patients who do not have a complete clinical response when assessed at 11 weeks after commencing chemoradiotherapy do in fact respond by 26 weeks, and the earlier assessment could lead to some patients having unnecessary surgery. Our data suggests that the optimum time for assessment of complete clinical response after chemoradiotherapy for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus is 26 weeks from starting chemoradiotherapy. We suggest that guidelines should be revised to indicate that later assessment is acceptable. Cancer Research UK.

A proportion of patients, who receive preoperative chemoradiation for locally advanced (T3, T4, NX) rectal cancer achieve a complete clinical response and a pathologic complete response in the region of 15 to 30 percent. Support is growing in the United Kingdom for the concept of “waiting to see” and not proceeding to radical surgery when a complete clinical response is observed. The purpose of this review was to use a literature search to assess how often complete clinical response is achieved after neoadjuvant chemoradiation, the concordance of this finding with pathologic complete response, and to determine whether it is feasible to observe patients who achieve complete clinical response rather than proceed to surgery. In total, 218 Phase I/II or retrospective studies and 28 Phase III trials of preoperative radiotherapy or chemoradiation were identified: 96 percent of trials documented the pathologic complete response, but only 38 trials presented data on the achievement of a complete clinical response/partial clinical response. Only five studies were found in which patients with clinically staged T2/T3 tumors were treated with radiotherapy/chemoradiation and did not routinely proceed to surgery and also reported on the long-term outcome of a “wait and see” policy. It remains uncertain whether the degree of response to chemoradiation in terms of complete clinical response or pathologic complete response is a useful clinical end point. Studies that include T3 rectal cancer are associated with high local recurrence rates after nonsurgical treatment. Few studies report long-term outcome after achievement of a complete clinical response. The end point of complete clinical response is inconsistently defined and seems insufficiently robust with only partial concordance with pathologic complete response. The rationale of a “wait and see” policy when complete clinical response status is achieved relies on retrospective observations, which are currently insufficient to support this policy except in patients who are recognized to be unfit for or refuse radical surgery.