Natural hazard risk assessment generally focuses on a single hazard type, such as earthquakes, landslides, or floods. This emphasis tends to consider physical processes in isolation. However, most locations are simultaneously at risk to multiple, interacting hazards that generate cascading effects or synergies. Although scholars have proposed a multi-hazard risk framework based on probabilities, the quality and quantity of data required for such an approach are often unavailable in developing countries. Using geospatial and socioeconomic data, this study represents a first step in assessing multi-hazard risk in the city of Dharan, Nepal. Three hazards—landslides, floods, and earthquakes—were considered for an integrated hazard assessment using statistical methods and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We employed a Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to create a vulnerability map of the study area, which was then combined with a multi-hazard hazard map to produce a total risk map. Our results indicate that eastern Dharan along the Seuti River and southwestern Dharan on the left bank of the Sardu River are at high risk to multiple hazards. Central Dharan and the hills in the western portion of the city are categorized as low risk areas. Data limitations, such as availability and spatial resolution, did not allow for dynamic modeling; however, our results identified the spatial extent of low to high risk areas, which can inform future disaster planning. For example, the methodology and results of this study could assist in the development of disaster risk reduction programs and policies.
1 February 2008 in Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research
Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), an important treeline conifer in northern Montana, is considered both a keystone and foundation species in high-elevation ecosystems. The introduced fungal pathogen Cronartium ribicola, which causes white pine blister rust, has resulted in severe declines in whitebark pine in subalpine forest communities throughout the northern Rockies during past decades. However, the prevalence of blister rust in whitebark pine within the alpine treeline community and its impact remain to be determined. We gathered field data on blister rust infection incidence in the treeline ecotone at two locations east of the Continental Divide in the northern Rocky Mountains, Montana, U.S.A. Our objectives were (1) to examine the potential importance of whitebark pine in tree island formation, (2) to determine if blister rust is present in whitebark pine within the alpine treeline community, and (3) to characterize the incidence and intensity of blister rust in krummholz tree islands. We found that whitebark pine is the primary initial colonizer in tree island formation, indicating that the species is important in generating vegetation pattern in these communities. Thirty-five percent of all sampled whitebark pine were infected with blister rust. Although more cankers were found in solitary whitebark pine trees, highest infection incidence per tree occurred in trees that were part of multitree islands. Finally, we found a significant correlation between tree island length and infection incidence. These results have important implications with respect to alpine treeline dynamics on a landscape scale, especially in the context of climate change.
Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) has the largest and most northerly distribution of any white pine (Subgenus Strobus) in North America, encompassing 18° latitude and 21° longitude in western mountains. Within this broad range, however, whitebark pine occurs within a narrow elevational zone, including upper subalpine and treeline forests, and functions generally as an important keystone and foundation species. In the Rocky Mountains, whitebark pine facilitates the development of krummholz conifer communities in the alpine-treeline ecotone (ATE), and thus potentially provides capacity for critical ecosystem services such as snow retention and soil stabilization. The invasive, exotic pathogen Cronartium ribicola, which causes white pine blister rust, now occurs nearly rangewide in whitebark pine communities, to their northern limits. Here, we synthesize data from 10 studies to document geographic variation in structure, conifer species, and understory plants in whitebark pine treeline communities, and examine the potential role of these communities in snow retention and regulating downstream flows. Whitebark pine mortality is predicted to alter treeline community composition, structure, and function. Whitebark pine losses in the ATE may also alter response to climate warming. Efforts to restore whitebark pine have thus far been limited to subalpine communities, particularly through planting seedlings with potential blister rust resistance. We discuss whether restoration strategies might be appropriate for treeline communities.
The impacts of natural hazards are typically measured in terms of loss of human lives and economic damage, and recent studies demonstrate that deaths attributed to natural hazards have increased. Using the publicly available DesInventar database, we examined spatial and temporal patterns of natural hazard mortality from 1971 to 2011 at the district and village levels of Nepal and identified natural hazards that contributed most to mortality. Spatial clusters of mortality at the district and village levels were detected using local and global spatial autocorrelation measures (Moran's I). Landslides (41.91%) and floods (32.52%) accounted for approximately three quarters of natural hazard mortalities over the study period. A Global Moran's I test positively confirmed clustering at both the district (0.199, p < .001) and village (0.256, p < .001) levels, whereas a Local Moran's I test further detected clustering in the central and terai regions, where dynamic geologic and geomorphic processes combined with human-environment interaction constitute major risk factors. A better understanding of multihazard mortality patterns across geographic landscapes and time has the potential to aid policy makers, planners, and local officers to more efficiently allocate scarce capital and human resources to reduce mortality.
Venezuela will soon become the first Andean country to lose all of its glaciers, as the “eternal snows” of the Sierra Nevada de Mérida (SNM) disappear. Although documentation of glacier retreat in Venezuela commenced over a century ago, an updated reconstruction at sufficient spatial resolution is warranted. Our objectives were to (a) produce detailed multitemporal maps of glacier cover in the SNM since 1952 and revise historical estimates for 1910 and (b) document changes in cover and rates of glacier retreat of the last Venezuelan glacier at Humboldt Peak. We integrated multiple information sources, including topographic/geomorphic evidence, high-resolution aerial photographs, satellite images, historical maps, panoramic photos, and field observations. We present 1:5,000 maps of glacier cover between 1952 and 2019 and revise the maps of 1910. In Venezuela, glacial area has decreased 98 percent between 1952 and 2019 (from 2.317 km2 to 0.046 km2). Glacier retreat rates increased after 1998, with a maximum of −16.9 percent year−1 between 2016 and 2019. These new maps should provide an essential tool for biophysical, ecological, and historical studies and a key reference for promoting awareness on climate change in the tropical Andes, where glaciers are intimately linked with cultural identity.