This page has only limited features, please log in for full access.
Paul Drummond is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Sustainable Resources at University College London (UCL ISR). His research interests focus on energy, climate and innovation economics and policy.
Finance is vital for the green energy transition, but access to low cost finance is uneven as the cost of capital differs substantially between regions. This study shows how modelled decarbonisation pathways for developing economies are disproportionately impacted by different weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions. For example, representing regionally-specific WACC values indicates 35% lower green electricity production in Africa for a cost-optimal 2 °C pathway than when regional considerations are ignored. Moreover, policy interventions lowering WACC values for low-carbon and high-carbon technologies by 2050 would allow Africa to reach net-zero emissions approximately 10 years earlier than when the cost of capital reduction is not considered. A climate investment trap arises for developing economies when climate-related investments remain chronically insufficient. Current finance frameworks present barriers to these finance flows and radical changes are needed so that capital is more equitably distributed.
Nadia Ameli; Olivier Dessens; Matthew Winning; Jennifer Cronin; Hugues Chenet; Paul Drummond; Alvaro Calzadilla; Gabrial Anandarajah; Michael Grubb. Higher cost of finance exacerbates a climate investment trap in developing economies. Nature Communications 2021, 12, 1 -12.
AMA StyleNadia Ameli, Olivier Dessens, Matthew Winning, Jennifer Cronin, Hugues Chenet, Paul Drummond, Alvaro Calzadilla, Gabrial Anandarajah, Michael Grubb. Higher cost of finance exacerbates a climate investment trap in developing economies. Nature Communications. 2021; 12 (1):1-12.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNadia Ameli; Olivier Dessens; Matthew Winning; Jennifer Cronin; Hugues Chenet; Paul Drummond; Alvaro Calzadilla; Gabrial Anandarajah; Michael Grubb. 2021. "Higher cost of finance exacerbates a climate investment trap in developing economies." Nature Communications 12, no. 1: 1-12.
Elena Verdolini; Benjamin K Sovacool; Paul Drummond. Channeling diverse innovation pressures to support European sustainability transitions. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 061001 .
AMA StyleElena Verdolini, Benjamin K Sovacool, Paul Drummond. Channeling diverse innovation pressures to support European sustainability transitions. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (6):061001.
Chicago/Turabian StyleElena Verdolini; Benjamin K Sovacool; Paul Drummond. 2021. "Channeling diverse innovation pressures to support European sustainability transitions." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 6: 061001.
City-level decisions are crucial for delivering a low carbon transition, particularly as urban population dynamics and environments change in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ensuring appropriate governance structures, mechanisms and resources to facilitate these decisions is therefore essential. Based on a systematic literature review by van der Heijden (2019), this paper develops a simple framework to assess the state of ten enabling factors for effective urban climate governance, and applies it to low-carbon passenger mobility in London. Drawing on documentary evidence and a series of semi-structured expert interviews, it finds that London’s city authorities have a strong capacity for autonomy, stakeholder participation, local leadership and coordination on climate action and mobility, of which they make extensive use. The national legal and political framework remains broadly supportive following the UK’s departure from the EU, but multi-level co-ordination is thin, and funding issues have intensified conflict over political jurisdiction since the pandemic began. Spatial variation in urban form and infrastructure, coupled with dual-layer city administration, complicate the socio-political landscape and drive for climate action in mobility.
Paul Drummond. Assessing City Governance for Low-Carbon Mobility in London. Sustainability 2021, 13, 2480 .
AMA StylePaul Drummond. Assessing City Governance for Low-Carbon Mobility in London. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (5):2480.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Drummond. 2021. "Assessing City Governance for Low-Carbon Mobility in London." Sustainability 13, no. 5: 2480.
We conduct a systematic, interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions). Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (1) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers - general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (2) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (3) Overall Innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modeling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research.
Michael Grubb; Paul Drummond; Alexandra Poncia; Will McDowall; David Popp; Sascha Samadi; Cristina Penasco; Kenneth T Gillingham; Sjak Smulders; Matthieu Glachant; Gavin Hassall; Emi Mizuno; Edward S Rubin; Antoine Dechezleprêtre; Giulia Pavan. Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO2 mitigation. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 043007 .
AMA StyleMichael Grubb, Paul Drummond, Alexandra Poncia, Will McDowall, David Popp, Sascha Samadi, Cristina Penasco, Kenneth T Gillingham, Sjak Smulders, Matthieu Glachant, Gavin Hassall, Emi Mizuno, Edward S Rubin, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Giulia Pavan. Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO2 mitigation. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (4):043007.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMichael Grubb; Paul Drummond; Alexandra Poncia; Will McDowall; David Popp; Sascha Samadi; Cristina Penasco; Kenneth T Gillingham; Sjak Smulders; Matthieu Glachant; Gavin Hassall; Emi Mizuno; Edward S Rubin; Antoine Dechezleprêtre; Giulia Pavan. 2021. "Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO2 mitigation." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 4: 043007.
The Lancet Countdown is an international, multidisciplinary collaboration, dedicated to monitoring the evolving health profile of climate change, and providing an independent assessment of the delivery of commitments made by governments worldwide under the Paris Agreement.
Nick Watts; Markus Amann; Nigel Arnell; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Kristine Belesova; Maxwell Boykoff; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Stuart Capstick; Jonathan Chambers; Carole Dalin; Meaghan Daly; Niheer Dasandi; Michael Davies; Paul Drummond; Robert Dubrow; Kristie L Ebi; Matthew Eckelman; Paul Ekins; Luis E Escobar; Lucia Fernandez Montoya; Lucien Georgeson; Hilary Graham; Paul Haggar; Ian Hamilton; Stella Hartinger; Jeremy Hess; Ilan Kelman; Gregor Kiesewetter; Tord Kjellstrom; Dominic Kniveton; Bruno Lemke; Yang Liu; Melissa Lott; Rachel Lowe; Maquins Odhiambo Sewe; Jaime Martinez-Urtaza; Mark Maslin; Lucy McAllister; Alice McGushin; Slava Jankin Mikhaylov; James Milner; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Simon Munzert; Maria Nilsson; Tara Neville; Tadj Oreszczyn; Fereidoon Owfi; Olivia Pearman; David Pencheon; Dung Phung; Steve Pye; Ruth Quinn; Mahnaz Rabbaniha; Elizabeth Robinson; Joacim Rocklöv; Jan C Semenza; Jodi Sherman; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Meisam Tabatabaei; Jonathon Taylor; Joaquin Trinanes; Paul Wilkinson; Anthony Costello; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery. The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate. The Lancet 2019, 394, 1836 -1878.
AMA StyleNick Watts, Markus Amann, Nigel Arnell, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Kristine Belesova, Maxwell Boykoff, Peter Byass, Wenjia Cai, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Stuart Capstick, Jonathan Chambers, Carole Dalin, Meaghan Daly, Niheer Dasandi, Michael Davies, Paul Drummond, Robert Dubrow, Kristie L Ebi, Matthew Eckelman, Paul Ekins, Luis E Escobar, Lucia Fernandez Montoya, Lucien Georgeson, Hilary Graham, Paul Haggar, Ian Hamilton, Stella Hartinger, Jeremy Hess, Ilan Kelman, Gregor Kiesewetter, Tord Kjellstrom, Dominic Kniveton, Bruno Lemke, Yang Liu, Melissa Lott, Rachel Lowe, Maquins Odhiambo Sewe, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, Mark Maslin, Lucy McAllister, Alice McGushin, Slava Jankin Mikhaylov, James Milner, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Karyn Morrissey, Kris Murray, Simon Munzert, Maria Nilsson, Tara Neville, Tadj Oreszczyn, Fereidoon Owfi, Olivia Pearman, David Pencheon, Dung Phung, Steve Pye, Ruth Quinn, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Elizabeth Robinson, Joacim Rocklöv, Jan C Semenza, Jodi Sherman, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Meisam Tabatabaei, Jonathon Taylor, Joaquin Trinanes, Paul Wilkinson, Anthony Costello, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery. The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate. The Lancet. 2019; 394 (10211):1836-1878.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNick Watts; Markus Amann; Nigel Arnell; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Kristine Belesova; Maxwell Boykoff; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Stuart Capstick; Jonathan Chambers; Carole Dalin; Meaghan Daly; Niheer Dasandi; Michael Davies; Paul Drummond; Robert Dubrow; Kristie L Ebi; Matthew Eckelman; Paul Ekins; Luis E Escobar; Lucia Fernandez Montoya; Lucien Georgeson; Hilary Graham; Paul Haggar; Ian Hamilton; Stella Hartinger; Jeremy Hess; Ilan Kelman; Gregor Kiesewetter; Tord Kjellstrom; Dominic Kniveton; Bruno Lemke; Yang Liu; Melissa Lott; Rachel Lowe; Maquins Odhiambo Sewe; Jaime Martinez-Urtaza; Mark Maslin; Lucy McAllister; Alice McGushin; Slava Jankin Mikhaylov; James Milner; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Simon Munzert; Maria Nilsson; Tara Neville; Tadj Oreszczyn; Fereidoon Owfi; Olivia Pearman; David Pencheon; Dung Phung; Steve Pye; Ruth Quinn; Mahnaz Rabbaniha; Elizabeth Robinson; Joacim Rocklöv; Jan C Semenza; Jodi Sherman; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Meisam Tabatabaei; Jonathon Taylor; Joaquin Trinanes; Paul Wilkinson; Anthony Costello; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery. 2019. "The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate." The Lancet 394, no. 10211: 1836-1878.
The finance sector’s response to pressures around climate change has emphasized disclosure, notably through the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). The implicit assumption—that if risks are fully revealed, finance will respond rationally and in ways aligned with the public interest—is rooted in the “efficient market hypothesis” (EMH) applied to the finance sector and its perception of climate policy. For low carbon investment, particular hopes have been placed on the role of institutional investors, given the apparent matching of their assets and liabilities with the long timescales of climate change. We both explain theoretical frameworks (grounded in the “three domains”, namely satisficing, optimizing, and transforming) and use empirical evidence (from a survey of institutional investors), to show that the EMH is unsupported by either theory or evidence: it follows that transparency alone will be an inadequate response. To some extent, transparency can address behavioural biases (first domain characteristics), and improving pricing and market efficiency (second domain); however, the strategic (third domain) limitations of EMH are more serious. We argue that whilst transparency can help, on its own it is a very long way from an adequate response to the challenges of ‘aligning institutional climate finance’.
Nadia Ameli; Paul Drummond; Alexander Bisaro; Michael Grubb; Hugues Chenet. Climate finance and disclosure for institutional investors: why transparency is not enough. Climatic Change 2019, 160, 565 -589.
AMA StyleNadia Ameli, Paul Drummond, Alexander Bisaro, Michael Grubb, Hugues Chenet. Climate finance and disclosure for institutional investors: why transparency is not enough. Climatic Change. 2019; 160 (4):565-589.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNadia Ameli; Paul Drummond; Alexander Bisaro; Michael Grubb; Hugues Chenet. 2019. "Climate finance and disclosure for institutional investors: why transparency is not enough." Climatic Change 160, no. 4: 565-589.
Global trends in production and consumption and the associated use of natural resources are far from sustainable. There is a growing recognition of the need to tackle overexploitation of resources, including materials, land, water and carbon. However, transformations to a more resource-efficient economy and society are complex. This paper elaborates three possible scenarios for a resource-efficient economy in Europe. We describe three scenarios and characterize the key differences between them. The basis of the three scenarios - Global Cooperation, Europe Goes Ahead and Civil Society Leads - is very different governance models, worldviews and actors who drive the process. Each scenario encompasses a number of challenges, which are also described. A resource-efficient economy could be advanced through top-down agreements, through market-based mechanisms driving technological solutions, and through bottom-up behavioural changes and community based initiatives focusing on both efficiency and sufficiency. In reality, a combination of these approaches is likely to be required for the achievement of ambitious resource-efficiency targets in Europe.
Karin Schanes; Jill Jäger; Paul Drummond. Three Scenario Narratives for a Resource-Efficient and Low-Carbon Europe in 2050. Ecological Economics 2019, 155, 70 -79.
AMA StyleKarin Schanes, Jill Jäger, Paul Drummond. Three Scenario Narratives for a Resource-Efficient and Low-Carbon Europe in 2050. Ecological Economics. 2019; 155 ():70-79.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKarin Schanes; Jill Jäger; Paul Drummond. 2019. "Three Scenario Narratives for a Resource-Efficient and Low-Carbon Europe in 2050." Ecological Economics 155, no. : 70-79.
The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the health dimensions of the impacts of, and the response to, climate change. The Lancet Countdown tracks 41 indicators across five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; finance and economics; and public and political engagement.
Nick Watts; Markus Amann; Nigel Arnell; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Kristine Belesova; Helen Berry; Timothy Bouley; Maxwell Boykoff; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Jonathan Chambers; Meaghan Daly; Niheer Dasandi; Michael Davies; Anneliese Depoux; Paula Dominguez-Salas; Paul Drummond; Kristie L Ebi; Paul Ekins; Lucia Fernandez Montoya; Helen Fischer; Lucien Georgeson; Delia Grace; Hilary Graham; Ian Hamilton; Stella Hartinger; Jeremy Hess; Ilan Kelman; Gregor Kiesewetter; Tord Kjellstrom; Dominic Kniveton; Bruno Lemke; Lu Liang; Melissa Lott; Rachel Lowe; Maquins Sewe; Jaime Martinez-Urtaza; Mark Maslin; Lucy McAllister; Slava Jankin Mikhaylov; James Milner; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Maria Nilsson; Tara Neville; Tadj Oreszczyn; Fereidoon Owfi; Olivia Pearman; David Pencheon; Steve Pye; Mahnaz Rabbaniha; Elizabeth Robinson; Joacim Rocklöv; Olivia Saxer; Stefanie Schütte; Jan C Semenza; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Rebecca Steinbach; Meisam Tabatabaei; Julia Tomei; Joaquin Trinanes; Nicola Wheeler; Paul Wilkinson; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery; Anthony Costello. The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come. The Lancet 2018, 392, 2479 -2514.
AMA StyleNick Watts, Markus Amann, Nigel Arnell, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Kristine Belesova, Helen Berry, Timothy Bouley, Maxwell Boykoff, Peter Byass, Wenjia Cai, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Jonathan Chambers, Meaghan Daly, Niheer Dasandi, Michael Davies, Anneliese Depoux, Paula Dominguez-Salas, Paul Drummond, Kristie L Ebi, Paul Ekins, Lucia Fernandez Montoya, Helen Fischer, Lucien Georgeson, Delia Grace, Hilary Graham, Ian Hamilton, Stella Hartinger, Jeremy Hess, Ilan Kelman, Gregor Kiesewetter, Tord Kjellstrom, Dominic Kniveton, Bruno Lemke, Lu Liang, Melissa Lott, Rachel Lowe, Maquins Sewe, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, Mark Maslin, Lucy McAllister, Slava Jankin Mikhaylov, James Milner, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Karyn Morrissey, Kris Murray, Maria Nilsson, Tara Neville, Tadj Oreszczyn, Fereidoon Owfi, Olivia Pearman, David Pencheon, Steve Pye, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Elizabeth Robinson, Joacim Rocklöv, Olivia Saxer, Stefanie Schütte, Jan C Semenza, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Rebecca Steinbach, Meisam Tabatabaei, Julia Tomei, Joaquin Trinanes, Nicola Wheeler, Paul Wilkinson, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery, Anthony Costello. The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come. The Lancet. 2018; 392 (10163):2479-2514.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNick Watts; Markus Amann; Nigel Arnell; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Kristine Belesova; Helen Berry; Timothy Bouley; Maxwell Boykoff; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Jonathan Chambers; Meaghan Daly; Niheer Dasandi; Michael Davies; Anneliese Depoux; Paula Dominguez-Salas; Paul Drummond; Kristie L Ebi; Paul Ekins; Lucia Fernandez Montoya; Helen Fischer; Lucien Georgeson; Delia Grace; Hilary Graham; Ian Hamilton; Stella Hartinger; Jeremy Hess; Ilan Kelman; Gregor Kiesewetter; Tord Kjellstrom; Dominic Kniveton; Bruno Lemke; Lu Liang; Melissa Lott; Rachel Lowe; Maquins Sewe; Jaime Martinez-Urtaza; Mark Maslin; Lucy McAllister; Slava Jankin Mikhaylov; James Milner; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Maria Nilsson; Tara Neville; Tadj Oreszczyn; Fereidoon Owfi; Olivia Pearman; David Pencheon; Steve Pye; Mahnaz Rabbaniha; Elizabeth Robinson; Joacim Rocklöv; Olivia Saxer; Stefanie Schütte; Jan C Semenza; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Rebecca Steinbach; Meisam Tabatabaei; Julia Tomei; Joaquin Trinanes; Nicola Wheeler; Paul Wilkinson; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery; Anthony Costello. 2018. "The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come." The Lancet 392, no. 10163: 2479-2514.
Paul Ekins; Teresa Domenech; Paul Drummond. Policies for a Resource Efficient Economy in Europe: Findings From the POLFREE Project. Ecological Economics 2018, 155, 1 -6.
AMA StylePaul Ekins, Teresa Domenech, Paul Drummond. Policies for a Resource Efficient Economy in Europe: Findings From the POLFREE Project. Ecological Economics. 2018; 155 ():1-6.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Ekins; Teresa Domenech; Paul Drummond. 2018. "Policies for a Resource Efficient Economy in Europe: Findings From the POLFREE Project." Ecological Economics 155, no. : 1-6.
Michael Grubb; Will McDowall; Paul Drummond. On order and complexity in innovations systems: Conceptual frameworks for policy mixes in sustainability transitions. Energy Research & Social Science 2017, 33, 21 -34.
AMA StyleMichael Grubb, Will McDowall, Paul Drummond. On order and complexity in innovations systems: Conceptual frameworks for policy mixes in sustainability transitions. Energy Research & Social Science. 2017; 33 ():21-34.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMichael Grubb; Will McDowall; Paul Drummond. 2017. "On order and complexity in innovations systems: Conceptual frameworks for policy mixes in sustainability transitions." Energy Research & Social Science 33, no. : 21-34.
Nick Watts; Markus Amann; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Kristine Belesova; Timothy Bouley; Maxwell Boykoff; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Jonathan Chambers; Peter Cox; Meaghan Daly; Niheer Dasandi; Michael Davies; Michael Depledge; Anneliese Depoux; Paula Dominguez-Salas; Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins; Antoine Flahault; Howard Frumkin; Lucien Georgeson; Mostafa Ghanei; Delia Grace; Hilary Graham; Rébecca Grojsman; Andy Haines; Ian Hamilton; Stella Hartinger; Anne Johnson; Ilan Kelman; Gregor Kiesewetter; Dominic Kniveton; Lu Liang; Melissa Lott; Robert Lowe; Georgina Mace; Maquins Sewe; Mark Maslin; Slava Mikhaylov; James Milner; Ali Mohammad Latifi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Tara Neville; Maria Nilsson; Tadj Oreszczyn; Fereidoon Owfi; David Pencheon; Steve Pye; Mahnaz Rabbaniha; Elizabeth Robinson; Joacim Rocklöv; Stefanie Schütte; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Rebecca Steinbach; Meisam Tabatabaei; Nicola Wheeler; Paul Wilkinson; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery; Anthony Costello. The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health. The Lancet 2017, 391, 581 -630.
AMA StyleNick Watts, Markus Amann, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Kristine Belesova, Timothy Bouley, Maxwell Boykoff, Peter Byass, Wenjia Cai, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Jonathan Chambers, Peter Cox, Meaghan Daly, Niheer Dasandi, Michael Davies, Michael Depledge, Anneliese Depoux, Paula Dominguez-Salas, Paul Drummond, Paul Ekins, Antoine Flahault, Howard Frumkin, Lucien Georgeson, Mostafa Ghanei, Delia Grace, Hilary Graham, Rébecca Grojsman, Andy Haines, Ian Hamilton, Stella Hartinger, Anne Johnson, Ilan Kelman, Gregor Kiesewetter, Dominic Kniveton, Lu Liang, Melissa Lott, Robert Lowe, Georgina Mace, Maquins Sewe, Mark Maslin, Slava Mikhaylov, James Milner, Ali Mohammad Latifi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Karyn Morrissey, Kris Murray, Tara Neville, Maria Nilsson, Tadj Oreszczyn, Fereidoon Owfi, David Pencheon, Steve Pye, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Elizabeth Robinson, Joacim Rocklöv, Stefanie Schütte, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Rebecca Steinbach, Meisam Tabatabaei, Nicola Wheeler, Paul Wilkinson, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery, Anthony Costello. The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health. The Lancet. 2017; 391 (10120):581-630.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNick Watts; Markus Amann; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Kristine Belesova; Timothy Bouley; Maxwell Boykoff; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Jonathan Chambers; Peter Cox; Meaghan Daly; Niheer Dasandi; Michael Davies; Michael Depledge; Anneliese Depoux; Paula Dominguez-Salas; Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins; Antoine Flahault; Howard Frumkin; Lucien Georgeson; Mostafa Ghanei; Delia Grace; Hilary Graham; Rébecca Grojsman; Andy Haines; Ian Hamilton; Stella Hartinger; Anne Johnson; Ilan Kelman; Gregor Kiesewetter; Dominic Kniveton; Lu Liang; Melissa Lott; Robert Lowe; Georgina Mace; Maquins Sewe; Mark Maslin; Slava Mikhaylov; James Milner; Ali Mohammad Latifi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Tara Neville; Maria Nilsson; Tadj Oreszczyn; Fereidoon Owfi; David Pencheon; Steve Pye; Mahnaz Rabbaniha; Elizabeth Robinson; Joacim Rocklöv; Stefanie Schütte; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Rebecca Steinbach; Meisam Tabatabaei; Nicola Wheeler; Paul Wilkinson; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery; Anthony Costello. 2017. "The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health." The Lancet 391, no. 10120: 581-630.
Paul Ekins; Paul Drummond; Benjamin Görlach. Policy instruments for low-carbon development based on work from the EUFP7 project, CECILIA2050. Climate Policy 2017, 17, S1 -S7.
AMA StylePaul Ekins, Paul Drummond, Benjamin Görlach. Policy instruments for low-carbon development based on work from the EUFP7 project, CECILIA2050. Climate Policy. 2017; 17 (sup1):S1-S7.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Ekins; Paul Drummond; Benjamin Görlach. 2017. "Policy instruments for low-carbon development based on work from the EUFP7 project, CECILIA2050." Climate Policy 17, no. sup1: S1-S7.
Paul Ekins; Paul Drummond; Jim Watson; Estelle Cantillon; Barbara Chizzolini; Wolfgang Leininger; Ramon Marimon; Laszlo Matyas; Frode Steen; Marc Ivaldi; Richard Blundell. Economic Approaches to Energy, Environment and Sustainability. Innovation and Growth: The Schumpeterian Perspective 2017, 274 -323.
AMA StylePaul Ekins, Paul Drummond, Jim Watson, Estelle Cantillon, Barbara Chizzolini, Wolfgang Leininger, Ramon Marimon, Laszlo Matyas, Frode Steen, Marc Ivaldi, Richard Blundell. Economic Approaches to Energy, Environment and Sustainability. Innovation and Growth: The Schumpeterian Perspective. 2017; ():274-323.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Ekins; Paul Drummond; Jim Watson; Estelle Cantillon; Barbara Chizzolini; Wolfgang Leininger; Ramon Marimon; Laszlo Matyas; Frode Steen; Marc Ivaldi; Richard Blundell. 2017. "Economic Approaches to Energy, Environment and Sustainability." Innovation and Growth: The Schumpeterian Perspective , no. : 274-323.
Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins. Cost-effective decarbonization in the EU: an overview of policy suitability. Climate Policy 2016, 17, S51 -S71.
AMA StylePaul Drummond, Paul Ekins. Cost-effective decarbonization in the EU: an overview of policy suitability. Climate Policy. 2016; 17 (sup1):S51-S71.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Drummond; Paul Ekins. 2016. "Cost-effective decarbonization in the EU: an overview of policy suitability." Climate Policy 17, no. sup1: S51-S71.
This article examines the implications for the EU’s energy system if an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions is to be achieved by 2050 against 1990 levels, using the European TIMES Model (ETM-UCL) to project a least-cost pathway that meets this CO2 constraint (‘Policy Success’), along with milestone targets for 2020. A Reference scenario (no CO2 constraints post-2020) was analysed to allow for comparison. The key conclusions are as follows: (a) the achievement of negative emissions in the power sector via the use of biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) allows for much more limited decarbonization in the buildings and transport sectors; (b) CCS is also extensively used for decarbonization of the industrial sector; (c) because of the absence in the model of options for transport mode-switching and building fabric efficiency improvements, the transport and buildings sectors achieve relatively little abatement by 2050 – the inclusion of these options could considerably reduce the need for BECCS and the cost of abatement; (d) decarbonization of the EU’s energy system by 2050 would increase energy system costs by 14% compared to a Reference scenario with no CO2 constraints; and (e) average EU-wide marginal CO2 abatement costs in Policy Success reach $300/tCO2 in 2050. Such a value is within the (wide) range of marginal carbon prices produced by comparable scenarios in other studies. Policy relevance The EU has set itself a target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% by 2050, against 1990 levels. This will require a reduction of at least 80% in CO2 emissions from the energy system. This article, using results from the European TIMES Model (ETM-UCL), demonstrates that in the absence of significant decarbonization in the buildings and road transport sectors, substantial negative emissions in the power sector must be achieved, through as-yet unproven technologies (involving BECCS) . Therefore, a comprehensive strategy to reduce emissions across all energy-using sectors is required if this outcome is to be avoided. In addition, this article adds further evidence to the notion that substantial decarbonization of the EU’s energy system may be achieved through a relatively small additional investment above that required anyway.
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez; Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins. Decarbonizing the EU energy system by 2050: an important role for BECCS. Climate Policy 2016, 17, S93 -S110.
AMA StyleBaltazar Solano Rodriguez, Paul Drummond, Paul Ekins. Decarbonizing the EU energy system by 2050: an important role for BECCS. Climate Policy. 2016; 17 (sup1):S93-S110.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBaltazar Solano Rodriguez; Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins. 2016. "Decarbonizing the EU energy system by 2050: an important role for BECCS." Climate Policy 17, no. sup1: S93-S110.
Summary The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process—from November, 2016 to early 2017—to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.
Nick Watts; William Neil Adger; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Yuqi Bai; Peter Byass; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Tim Colbourn; Peter Cox; Michael Davies; Michael Depledge; Anneliese Depoux; Paula Dominguez-Salas; Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins; Antoine Flahault; Delia Grace; Hilary Graham; Andy Haines; Ian Hamilton; Anne Johnson; Ilan Kelman; Sari Kovats; Lu Liang; Melissa Lott; Robert Lowe; Yong Luo; Georgina Mace; Mark Maslin; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Tara Neville; Maria Nilsson; Tadj Oreszczyn; Christine Parthemore; David Pencheon; Elizabeth Robinson; Stefanie Schütte; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Paolo Vineis; Paul Wilkinson; Nicola Wheeler; Bing Xu; Jun Yang; Yongyuan Yin; Chaoqing Yu; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery; Anthony Costello. The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change. The Lancet 2016, 389, 1151 -1164.
AMA StyleNick Watts, William Neil Adger, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Yuqi Bai, Peter Byass, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Tim Colbourn, Peter Cox, Michael Davies, Michael Depledge, Anneliese Depoux, Paula Dominguez-Salas, Paul Drummond, Paul Ekins, Antoine Flahault, Delia Grace, Hilary Graham, Andy Haines, Ian Hamilton, Anne Johnson, Ilan Kelman, Sari Kovats, Lu Liang, Melissa Lott, Robert Lowe, Yong Luo, Georgina Mace, Mark Maslin, Karyn Morrissey, Kris Murray, Tara Neville, Maria Nilsson, Tadj Oreszczyn, Christine Parthemore, David Pencheon, Elizabeth Robinson, Stefanie Schütte, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Paolo Vineis, Paul Wilkinson, Nicola Wheeler, Bing Xu, Jun Yang, Yongyuan Yin, Chaoqing Yu, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery, Anthony Costello. The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change. The Lancet. 2016; 389 (10074):1151-1164.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNick Watts; William Neil Adger; Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson; Yuqi Bai; Peter Byass; Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum; Tim Colbourn; Peter Cox; Michael Davies; Michael Depledge; Anneliese Depoux; Paula Dominguez-Salas; Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins; Antoine Flahault; Delia Grace; Hilary Graham; Andy Haines; Ian Hamilton; Anne Johnson; Ilan Kelman; Sari Kovats; Lu Liang; Melissa Lott; Robert Lowe; Yong Luo; Georgina Mace; Mark Maslin; Karyn Morrissey; Kris Murray; Tara Neville; Maria Nilsson; Tadj Oreszczyn; Christine Parthemore; David Pencheon; Elizabeth Robinson; Stefanie Schütte; Joy Shumake-Guillemot; Paolo Vineis; Paul Wilkinson; Nicola Wheeler; Bing Xu; Jun Yang; Yongyuan Yin; Chaoqing Yu; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery; Anthony Costello. 2016. "The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change." The Lancet 389, no. 10074: 1151-1164.
To achieve European Union (EU) greenhouse gas emissions of 80–95% below 1990 levels by 2050, CO2 emissions from residential energy consumption must be substantially reduced. Recognition of this has led to the introduction of a range of policy instruments at both EU and member state level. These policies are examined for the EU and the UK, first by grouping them into three ‘pillars of policy’ – standards and engagement, markets and pricing, and strategic investment (each of which focus on different ‘domains of change’ embodying different economic processes) – and then by assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each pillar in terms of instrument coverage and effectiveness. Strengths and weaknesses common to both UK and EU policy landscapes are found, including a comprehensive but broadly ineffective standards and engagement pillar of policy, and an ineffective markets and pricing landscape (including effective subsidization of energy consumption in the UK, permitted by the EU), with poor coverage. The strategic investment landscape is found (until recently) to be substantially stronger in the UK compared with EU instruments and requirements. Priority reform actions are also proposed to address the weaknesses identified. The paper also offers discussion of recent policy developments in the UK.
Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins. Reducing CO2 emissions from residential energy use. Building Research & Information 2016, 44, 585 -603.
AMA StylePaul Drummond, Paul Ekins. Reducing CO2 emissions from residential energy use. Building Research & Information. 2016; 44 (5-6):585-603.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Drummond; Paul Ekins. 2016. "Reducing CO2 emissions from residential energy use." Building Research & Information 44, no. 5-6: 585-603.
The construction and subsequent analysis of scenarios using energy systems models is an essential tool in energy policy making. This paper presents two descriptive scenarios for the development of the UK energy system to 2050, using four subsequent decadal time-slices. The two scenarios, K_Scenario and Z_Scenario, were modelled with the use of the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) 2050 Pathways Calculator. K_Scenario is a scenario in which the use fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) are prominent in the power sector, while Z_Scenario focuses on the development of renewables with energy storage and nuclear power. Both scenarios seek to achieve the UK's legally binding target of an 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050. Abatement is achieved through numerous developments in each of the scenarios, including the development and use of shale gas, hydrogen, additional wind and solar deployment, the expansion of bioenergy and use of carbon capture and storage (CCS). These developments must be driven by policies designed to pursue dramatic decarbonisation
Catalina Spataru; Paul Drummond; Eleni Zafeiratou; Mark Barrett. Long-term scenarios for reaching climate targets and energy security in UK. Sustainable Cities and Society 2015, 17, 95 -109.
AMA StyleCatalina Spataru, Paul Drummond, Eleni Zafeiratou, Mark Barrett. Long-term scenarios for reaching climate targets and energy security in UK. Sustainable Cities and Society. 2015; 17 ():95-109.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCatalina Spataru; Paul Drummond; Eleni Zafeiratou; Mark Barrett. 2015. "Long-term scenarios for reaching climate targets and energy security in UK." Sustainable Cities and Society 17, no. : 95-109.
REVIEWJOURNAL ARTICLEThe 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. This Commission is multidisciplinary and international in nature, with strong collaboration between academic centres in Europe and China.\ud The central finding from the Commission's work is that tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century.The central funding for the Commission was provided by ClimateWorks Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, Microsoft Research Asia, the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD), the National Environment Research Council through an Impact Acceleration award to the University of Exeter (NE/L012782/1), Martin Rushton-Turner, the Stordalen Foundation, and University College London’s Grand Challenge for Global Health
Nick Watts; William Neil Adger; Paolo Agnolucci; Jason Blackstock; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Sarah Chaytor; Timothy Colbourn; Mat Collins; Adam Cooper; Peter Cox; Joanna Depledge; Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins; Victor Galaz; Delia Grace; Hilary Graham; Michael Grubb; Andy Haines; Ian Hamilton; Alasdair Hunter; Xujia Jiang; Moxuan Li; Ilan Kelman; Lu Liang; Melissa Lott; Robert Lowe; Yong Luo; Georgina Mace; Mark Maslin; Maria Nilsson; Tadj Oreszczyn; Steve Pye; Tara Quinn; My Svensdotter; Sergey Venevsky; Koko Warner; Bing Xu; Jun Yang; Yongyuan Yin; Chaoqing Yu; Qiang Zhang; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery; Anthony Costello. Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. The Lancet 2015, 386, 1861 -1914.
AMA StyleNick Watts, William Neil Adger, Paolo Agnolucci, Jason Blackstock, Peter Byass, Wenjia Cai, Sarah Chaytor, Timothy Colbourn, Mat Collins, Adam Cooper, Peter Cox, Joanna Depledge, Paul Drummond, Paul Ekins, Victor Galaz, Delia Grace, Hilary Graham, Michael Grubb, Andy Haines, Ian Hamilton, Alasdair Hunter, Xujia Jiang, Moxuan Li, Ilan Kelman, Lu Liang, Melissa Lott, Robert Lowe, Yong Luo, Georgina Mace, Mark Maslin, Maria Nilsson, Tadj Oreszczyn, Steve Pye, Tara Quinn, My Svensdotter, Sergey Venevsky, Koko Warner, Bing Xu, Jun Yang, Yongyuan Yin, Chaoqing Yu, Qiang Zhang, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery, Anthony Costello. Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. The Lancet. 2015; 386 (10006):1861-1914.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNick Watts; William Neil Adger; Paolo Agnolucci; Jason Blackstock; Peter Byass; Wenjia Cai; Sarah Chaytor; Timothy Colbourn; Mat Collins; Adam Cooper; Peter Cox; Joanna Depledge; Paul Drummond; Paul Ekins; Victor Galaz; Delia Grace; Hilary Graham; Michael Grubb; Andy Haines; Ian Hamilton; Alasdair Hunter; Xujia Jiang; Moxuan Li; Ilan Kelman; Lu Liang; Melissa Lott; Robert Lowe; Yong Luo; Georgina Mace; Mark Maslin; Maria Nilsson; Tadj Oreszczyn; Steve Pye; Tara Quinn; My Svensdotter; Sergey Venevsky; Koko Warner; Bing Xu; Jun Yang; Yongyuan Yin; Chaoqing Yu; Qiang Zhang; Peng Gong; Hugh Montgomery; Anthony Costello. 2015. "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health." The Lancet 386, no. 10006: 1861-1914.