Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = −0.018 y⁻¹). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (−0.015 to −0.18 y⁻¹), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y⁻¹), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species. Significance Kelp forests support diverse and productive ecological communities throughout temperate and arctic regions worldwide, providing numerous ecosystem services to humans. Literature suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of human impacts, including climate change, overfishing, and direct harvest. We provide the first globally comprehensive analysis of kelp forest change over the past 50 y, identifying a high degree of variation in the magnitude and direction of change across the geographic range of kelps. These results suggest region-specific responses to global change, with local drivers playing an important role in driving patterns of kelp abundance. Increased monitoring aimed at understanding regional kelp forest dynamics is likely to prove most effective for the adaptive management of these important ecosystems.

A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

Giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) is the most widely distributed kelp species on the planet, constituting one of the richest and most productive ecosystems on Earth, but detailed information on its distribution is entirely missing in some marine ecoregions, especially in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present an algorithm based on a series of filter thresholds to detect giant kelp employing Sentinel-2 imagery. Given the overlap between the reflectances of giant kelp and intertidal green algae (Ulvophyceae), the latter are also detected on shallow rocky intertidal areas. The kelp filter algorithm was applied separately to vegetation indices, the Floating Algae Index (FAI), the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and a novel formula (the Kelp Difference, KD). Training data from previously surveyed kelp forests and other coastal and ocean features were used to identify reflectance threshold values. This procedure was validated with independent field data collected with UAV imagery at a high spatial resolution and point-georeferenced sites at a low spatial resolution. When comparing UAV with Sentinel data (high-resolution validation), an average overall accuracy ≥ 0.88 and Cohen’s kappa ≥ 0.64 coefficients were found in all three indices for canopies reaching the surface with extensions greater than 1 hectare, with the KD showing the highest average kappa score (0.66). Measurements between previously surveyed georeferenced points and remotely-sensed kelp grid cells (low-resolution validation) showed that 66% of the georeferenced points had grid cells indicating kelp presence within a linear distance of 300 m. We employed the KD in our kelp filter algorithm to estimate the global extent of giant kelp and intertidal green algae per marine ecoregion and province, producing a high-resolution global map of giant kelp and intertidal green algae, powered by Google Earth Engine.

Understanding the processes that drive kelp forest communities is critical for management and conservation of these productive ecosystems. As a way to advance in this direction, we explored the effects of fishing pressure and upwelling intensity over kelp forest communities along the central coast of Chile. We sampled kelp communities in different upwelling conditions associated with contrasting management regimes, namely Territorial User Rights for Fisheries (TURFs) and open‐access (OA) areas. In TURF areas, we found a 2.6‐fold increase in reef fish biomass, higher diversity of all fish trophic groups, mainly dominated by benthic carnivore feeders, and a 1.8‐fold reduction in the number of kelp grazers. On the other hand, upwelling regimes evidence a 1.6‐fold increase in abundance and recruitment of the dominant kelp (Lessonia trabeculata), and also an increase in biomass of planktivorous reef fishes. We found that grazers were capable of reducing kelp condition (measured as canopy foliage index) in OA areas outside the influence of upwelling. Enclosure experiments in the field revealed the effect of grazers on kelps, reducing kelp growth (i.e., blade elongation) and increasing blade tissue loss. Results provide evidence that TURF areas could be important ancillary conservation instruments in kelp forest ecosystems, if key processes of the subtidal community assemblages (e.g., interactions between grazers and reef fish) are maintained. We conclude that human impact interplays with the influence of upwelling in structuring kelp communities.