Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. Methods and findings: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a “no-new-vaccine” counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. Conclusions: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.

Tuberculosis remains a major source of morbidity and mortality worldwide, with 10 million cases and 1.5 million deaths in 2018. Achieving ‘End TB’ prevention and care goals by 2035 will likely require a new tuberculosis vaccine. The tuberculosis vaccine development pipeline has seen encouraging progress; however, questions around their population impact and implementation remain. Mathematical modelling investigates these questions to inform vaccine development and deployment strategies. We provide an update on the current vaccine development pipeline, and a systematic literature review of mathematical modelling of the epidemiological impact of new tuberculosis vaccines. Fourteen prophylactic tuberculosis vaccine candidates are currently in clinical trials. Two candidates have shown promise in phase II proof‐of‐concept efficacy trials: M72/AS01_E demonstrated 49.7% (95% CI; 2.1, 74.2) protection against tuberculosis disease, and BCG revaccination demonstrated 45.4% (95% CI; 6.4, 68.1) protection against sustained Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Since the last modelling review, new studies have investigated the epidemiological impact of differential vaccine characteristics, age targeting and spatial/risk group targeting. Critical research priorities for M72/AS01_E include completing the currently in‐design trial, powered to improve the precision of efficacy estimates, include uninfected populations and further assess safety and immunogenicity in HIV‐infected people. For BCG revaccination, the priority is completing the ongoing confirmation of efficacy trial. Critical modelling gaps remain on the full value proposition of vaccines, comparisons with other interventions and more realistic implementation strategies. Using carefully designed trials and modelling, we must prepare for success, to ensure that new vaccines will be promptly received by those most in need.

VRE bacteraemia has a high mortality and continues to defy control. Antibiotic risk factors for VRE bacteraemia have not been adequately defined. We aimed to determine the risk factors for VRE bacteraemia focusing on duration of antibiotic exposure. A retrospective matched nested case-control study was conducted amongst hospitalized patients at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH) from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012. Cases who developed a first episode of VRE bacteraemia were matched 1:1 to controls by length of stay, year, specialty and ward type. Independent risk factors for VRE bacteraemia were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. Two hundred and thirty-five cases were compared with 220 controls. Duration of exposure to parenteral vancomycin, fluoroquinolones and meropenem was independently associated with VRE bacteraemia. Compared with patients with no exposure to vancomycin, those who received courses of 1–3 days, 4–7 days or >7 days had a stepwise increase in risk of VRE bacteraemia [conditional OR (cOR) 1.2 (95% CI 0.4–3.8), 3.8 (95% CI 1.2–11.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 1.9–22.8), respectively]. Other risk factors were: presence of a central venous catheter (CVC) [cOR 8.7 (95% CI 2.6–29.5)]; neutropenia [cOR 15.5 (95% CI 4.2–57.0)]; hypoalbuminaemia [cOR 8.5 (95% CI 2.4–29.5)]; malignancy [cOR 4.4 (95% CI 1.6–12.0)]; gastrointestinal disease [cOR 12.4 (95% CI 4.2–36.8)]; and hepatobiliary disease [cOR 7.9 (95% CI 2.1–29.9)]. Longer exposure to vancomycin, fluoroquinolones or meropenem was associated with VRE bacteraemia. Antimicrobial stewardship interventions targeting high-risk antibiotics are required to complement infection control procedures against VRE bacteraemia.

Background: Despite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India. Methods: We constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027–2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses. Results: By 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 73% (UI:66–76) and 72% (UI:65–77), and the PSI vaccine by 29% (UI: 27–31) and 47% (UI: 37–58) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 1.0 million (UI: 0.6–1.3) and 0.8 million (UI: 0.5–1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively. Conclusions: Novel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.

Recently, two Phase 2B tuberculosis vaccine trials reported positive efficacy results in adolescents and adults. However, experience in vaccinating these age groups is limited. We identified potential implementation strategies for the M72/AS01_E vaccination and BCG-revaccination-like candidates and explored their acceptability and feasibility. We conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews among key decision makers to identify implementation strategies and target groups in South Africa, India, and China. Thematic and deductive analysis using a coding framework were used to identify themes across and within settings. In all three countries there was interest in novel TB vaccines, with school-attending adolescents named as a likely target group. In China and India, older people were also identified as a target group. Routine vaccination was preferred in all countries due to stigma and logistical issues with targeted mass campaigns. Perceived benefits for implementation of M72/AS01_E were the likely efficacy in individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection and efficacy for people living with HIV. Perceived challenges for M72/AS01_E included the infrastructure and the two-dose regimen required. Stakeholders valued the familiarity of BCG but were concerned about the adverse effects in people living with HIV, a particular concern in South Africa. Implementation challenges and opportunities were identified in all three countries. Our study provides crucial information for implementing novel TB vaccines in specific target groups and on country specific acceptability and feasibility. Key groups for vaccine implementation in these settings were identified, and should be included in clinical trials and implementation planning.

Background: Published literature on surgical care in refugees tends to focus on the acute (‘emergent’) phase of crisis situations. Here we posit that there is a substantial burden of non-acute morbidity amenable to surgical intervention among refugees in the ‘chronic’ phase of crisis situations. We describe surgery for non-acute conditions undertaken at Mae La Refugee Camp, Thailand over a two year period. Methods: Surgery was performed by a general surgeon in a dedicated room of Mae La Refugee Camp over May 2005 to April 2007 with minimal instruments and staff. We obtained the equivalent costs for these procedures if they were done at the local Thai District General Hospital. We also acquired the list (and costs) of acute surgical referrals to the District General Hospital over September 2006 to December 2007. Results: 855 operations were performed on 847 patients in Mae La Refugee Camp (60.1% sterilizations, 13.3% ‘general surgery’, 5.6% ‘gynaecological surgery’, 17.4% ‘mass excisions’, 3.5% ‘other’). These procedures were worth 2,207,500 THB (75,683.33 USD) at costs quoted by the District General Hospital. Total cost encountered for these operations (including staff costs, consumables, anaesthesia and capital costs such as construction) equaled 1,280,000 THB (42,666 USD). Pertaining to acute surgical referrals to District General hospital: we estimate that 356,411.96 THB (11,880.40 USD) worth of operations over 14 months were potentially preventable if these cases had been operated at an earlier, non-acute state in Mae La Refugee Camp. Conclusions: A considerable burden of non-acute surgical morbidity exists in ‘chronic’ refugee situations. An in-house general surgical service is found to be cost-effective in relieving some of this burden and should be considered by policy makers as a viable intervention.