Agricultural intensification is a key strategy to help meet increasing demand for food and bioenergy. It has the potential to reduce direct and indirect land use change (LUC) and associated environmental impacts while contributing to a favorable economic performance of the agriculture sector. We conduct an integral analysis of environmental and economic impacts of LUC from projected agricultural intensification and bioenergy production in the Orinoquia region in 2030. We compare three agricultural intensification scenarios (low, medium, high) and a reference scenario, which assumes a business-as-usual development of agricultural production. The results show that with current inefficient management or with only very little intensification between 26% and 93% of the existing natural vegetation areas will be converted to agricultural land to meet increasing food demand. This results in the loss of biodiversity by 53% and increased water consumption by 111%. In the medium and high scenarios, the intensification allows meeting increased food demand within current agricultural lands and even generating surplus land which can be used to produce bioenergy crops. This results in the reduction of biodiversity loss by 8-13% with medium and high levels of intensification compared to the situation in 2018. Also, a positive economic performance is observed, stemming primarily from intensification of cattle production and additional energy crop production. Despite increasing irrigation efficiency in more intensive production systems, the water demand for perennial crops and cattle production over the dry season increases significantly, thus sustainable management practices that target efficient water use are needed. Agricultural productivity improvements, particularly for cattle production, are crucial for reducing the pressure on natural areas from increasing demand for both food products and bioenergy. This implies targeted investments in the agricultural sector and integrated planning of land use. Our results showed that production intensification in the Orinoquia region is a mechanism that could reduce the pressure on natural land and its associated environmental and economic impacts.

Energy crop expansion can increase land demand and generate displacement of food crops, which impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly through land-use change (LUC). Increased agricultural productivity could compensate for this. Our study aims to evaluate the regional combined GHG emissions of increasing agricultural yields for food crop and beef production and using the generated surplus land for biomass production to replace fossil fuels in the Orinoquia region of Colombia until 2030. The results show that surplus land for biomass production is obtained only when strong measures are applied to increase agricultural productivity. In the medium and high scenario, a land surplus of 0.6 and 2.4 Mha, respectively, could be generated. Such intensification results in up to 83% emission reduction in Orinoquia’s agricultural sector, largely coming from increasing productivity of cattle production and improving degraded pastures. Biofuel potential from the surplus land is projected at 36 to 368 PJ per year, with a low risk of causing indirect LUC, and results in GHG emission reductions of more than 100% compared to its fossil fuel equivalent. An integrated perspective of the agricultural land use enables sustainable production of both food and bioenergy.

The global energy transition is pushing the development of advanced biofuels to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the aviation industry. This study thoroughly evaluates the potential of the Colombian crude palm oil (CPO) sector to support sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Extensive primary data from 53 palm oil mills and 269 palm plantations were examined. The methodology included a carbon footprint analysis of SAF produced from Colombian CPO through the HEFA pathway, an economic aspects analysis, a review of renewable fuel standards, and an assessment of market access for low-CO₂-emitting feedstocks. The results show that the carbon footprint of the Colombian palm oil-SAF is 16.11 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ SAF, which is significantly lower than the 89.2 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ reference value for traditional jet fuel. This figure considers current direct Land Use-Change (DLUC) emissions and existing methane capture practices within the Colombian palm oil agro-industry. A sensitivity analysis indicated that this SAF’s carbon footprint could decrease to negative values of −4.58 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ if all surveyed palm oil mills implement methane capture. Conversely, excluding DLUC emissions from the assessment raised the values to 47.46 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹, highlighting Colombia’s favorable DLUC profile as a major factor in its low overall CPO carbon footprint. These findings also emphasize that methane capture is a key low-carbon practice for reducing the environmental impact of sustainable fuel production, as outlined by the CORSIA methodology. Based on the economic analysis, investing in Colombian CPO-based SAF production is a financially sound decision. However, the project’s profitability is highly susceptible to the volatility of SAF sales prices and raw material costs, underscoring the need for meticulous risk management. Overall, these results demonstrate the strong potential of Colombian palm oil for producing sustainable aviation fuels that comply with CORSIA requirements.