This paper proposes a novel method to incorporate unfavorable orientations of discontinuities into machine learning (ML) landslide prediction by using GIS-based kinematic analysis. Discontinuities, detected from photogrammetric and aerial LiDAR surveys, were included in the assessment of potential rock slope instability through GIS-based kinematic analysis. Results from the kinematic analysis, coupled with several commonly used landslide influencing factors, were adopted as input variables in ML models to predict landslides. In this paper, various ML models, such as random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and deep learning neural network (DLNN) models were evaluated. Results of two validation methods (confusion matrix and ROC curve) show that the involvement of discontinuity-related variables significantly improved the landslide predictive capability of these four models. Their addition demonstrated a minimum of 6% and 4% increase in the overall prediction accuracy and the area under curve (AUC), respectively. In addition, frequency ratio (FR) analysis showed good consistency between landslide probability that was characterized by FR values and discontinuity-related variables, indicating a high correlation. Both results of model validation and FR analysis highlight that inclusion of discontinuities into ML models can improve landslide prediction accuracy.

This paper focuses on numerical modelling and back analysis of the Hell’s Mouth landslide to provide improved understanding of the evolution of a section of the north coast of Cornwall, UK. Discontinuity control is highlighted through the formation of a ‘zawn’ or inlet, the occurrence of two successive landslides and evidence of ongoing instability through opening of tension cracks behind the cliff top. Several integrated remote sensing (RS) techniques have been utilised for data acquisition to characterise the slope geometry, landslide features and tension crack extent and development. In view of the structural control on the rock slope failures, a 3D distinct element method (DEM) code incorporating a discrete fracture network and rigid blocks has been adopted for the stability analysis. The onset and opening of tension cracks behind the modelled slope failure zones has also been studied by analysing the displacements of two adjoining landslide blocks, between which, a joint-related tension crack developed. In addition, a sensitivity analysis has been undertaken to provide further insight into the influence of key discontinuity parameters (i.e. dip, dip direction, persistence and friction angle) on the stability of this section of the coastline. Numerical modelling and field observations indicate that block removal and preferential erosion along a fault resulted in the formation of the inlet. The development of the inlet provides daylighting conditions for discontinuities exposed on the inlet slope wall, triggering the initial landslide which occurred on 23^rd September 2011. Numerical modelling, and evidence from a video of the initial landslide, suggests that the cliff instability is characterised by a combination of planar sliding, wedge sliding and toppling modes of failure controlled by the discrete fracture network geometry.

Estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) is vital for sustainable forest management and helps to understand the contributions of forests to carbon storage and emission goals. In this study, the effectiveness of plot-level AGB estimation using height and crown diameter derived from UAV-LiDAR, calibration of GEDI-L4A AGB and GEDI-L2A rh98 heights, and spectral variables derived from UAV-multispectral and RGB data were assessed. These calibrated AGB and height values and UAV-derived spectral variables were used to fit AGB estimations using a random forest (RF) regression model in Fuling District, China. Using Pearson correlation analysis, we identified 10 of the most important predictor variables in the AGB prediction model, including calibrated GEDI AGB and height, Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index green (VARIg), Red Blue Ratio Index (RBRI), Difference Vegetation Index (DVI), canopy cover (CC), Atmospherically Resistant Vegetation Index (ARVI), Red-Edge Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIre), Color Index of Vegetation (CIVI), elevation, and slope. The results showed that, in general, the second model based on calibrated AGB and height, Sentinel-2 indices, slope and elevation, and spectral variables from UAV-multispectral and RGB datasets with evaluation metric (for training: R² = 0.941 Mg/ha, RMSE = 13.514 Mg/ha, MAE = 8.136 Mg/ha) performed better than the first model with AGB prediction. The result was between 23.45 Mg/ha and 301.81 Mg/ha, and the standard error was between 0.14 Mg/ha and 10.18 Mg/ha. This hybrid approach significantly improves AGB prediction accuracy and addresses uncertainties in AGB prediction modeling. The findings provide a robust framework for enhancing forest carbon stock assessment and contribute to global-scale AGB monitoring, advancing methodologies for sustainable forest management and ecological research.

This paper focuses on the back analysis of an ancient, catastrophic rock avalanche located in the small city of Lettopalena (Chieti, Italy). The integrated use of various investigation methods was employed for landslide analysis, including the use of traditional manual surveys and remote sensing (RS) mapping for the identification of geological structures. The outputs of the manual and RS surveys were then utilised to numerically model the landslide using a 2D distinct element method. A series of numerical simulations were undertaken to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the uncertainty of discontinuity properties on the slope stability analysis and provide further insight into the landslide failure mechanism. Both numerical modelling and field investigations indicate that the landslide was controlled by translational sliding along a folded bedding plane, with toe removal because of river erosion. This generated daylighting of the bedding plane, creating kinematic freedom for the landslide. The formation of lateral and rear release surfaces was influenced by the orientation of the discrete fracture network. Due to the presence of an anticline, the landslide region was constrained in the middle-lower section of the slope, where the higher inclination of the bedding plane was detected. The landslide is characterized by a step-path slip surface at the toe of the slope, which was observed both in the modelling and the field. This paper highlights the combined use of a geological model and numerical modelling to provide an improved understanding of the origin and development of rock avalanches under the influence of river erosion, anticline structures, and related faults and fractures.

Legacy colliery spoil tip failures pose a significant hazard that can result in harm to persons or damage to property and infrastructure. In this research, the 2020 Wattstown tip landslide caused by heavy rainfall was examined to investigate the likely mechanisms and developmental factors contributing to colliery spoil tip failures in Welsh coalfields. To achieve this, an integrated method was proposed through the combination of remote sensing mapping, stability chart analysis, 2D limit equilibrium (LE) modelling, and 3D finite difference method (FDM) analysis. Various water table geometries were incorporated into these models to ascertain the specific groundwater condition that triggered the occurrence of the 2020 landslide. In addition, sensitivity analyses were carried out to assess the influence of the colliery spoil properties (i.e., cohesion, friction angle, and porosity) on the slope stability analysis. The results indicate that the landslide was characterised by a shallow rotational failure mode and spatially constrained by the critical water table and an underlying geological interface. In addition, the results also imply that the landslide was triggered by the rise of water table associated with heavy rainfall. Through sensitivity analysis, it was found that the properties of the colliery spoil played an important role in confining the extent of the landslide and controlling the process of its development. The findings underscore the detrimental effects of increased pore pressures, induced by heavy rainfall, on the stability of colliery tips, highlighting the urgent needs for local government to enhance water management strategies for this region.