Avian influenza virus (AIV) is enzootic to wild birds, which are its natural reservoir. The virus exhibits a large degree of genetic diversity and most of the isolated strains are of low pathogenicity to poultry. Although AIV is nearly ubiquitous in wild bird populations, highly pathogenic H5N1 subtypes in poultry have been the focus of most modeling efforts. To better understand viral ecology of AIV, a predictive model should 1) include wild birds, 2) include all isolated subtypes, and 3) cover the host’s natural range, unbounded by artificial country borders. As of this writing, there are few large-scale predictive models of AIV in wild birds. We used the Random Forests algorithm, an ensemble data-mining machine-learning method, to develop a global-scale predictive map of AIV, identify important predictors, and describe the environmental niche of AIV in wild bird populations. The model has an accuracy of 0.79 and identified northern areas as having the highest relative predicted risk of outbreak. The primary niche was described as regions of low annual rainfall and low temperatures. This study is the first global-scale model of low-pathogenicity avian influenza in wild birds and underscores the importance of largely unstudied northern regions in the persistence of AIV.

Avian Influenza (AI) is a complex but still poorly understood disease; specifically when it comes to reservoirs, co-infections, connectedness and wider landscape perspectives. Low pathogenic (Low-path LP) AI in chickens caused by less virulent strains of AI viruses (AIVs)—when compared with highly pathogenic AIVs (HPAIVs)—are not even well-described yet or known how they contribute to wider AI and immune system issues. Co-circulation of LPAIVs with HPAIVs suggests their interactions in their ecological aspects. Here we show for the Pacific Rim an international approach how to data mine and model-predict LP AI and its ecological niche with machine learning and open access data sets and geographic information systems (GIS) on a 5 km pixel size for best-possible inference. This is based on the best-available data on the issue (~ 40,827 records of lab-analyzed field data from Japan, Russia, Vietnam, Mongolia, Alaska and Influenza Research Database (IRD) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) database sets, as well as 19 GIS data layers). We sampled 157 hosts and 110 low-path AIVs with 32 species as drivers. The prevalence across low-path AIV subtypes is dominated by Muscovy ducks, Mallards, Whistling Swans and gulls also emphasizing industrial impacts for the human-dominated wildlife contact zone. This investigation sets a good precedent for the study of reservoirs, big data mining, predictions and subsequent outbreaks of HPAI and other pandemics.