Knowledge of current vegetation dynamics and an ability to make accurate predictions of ecological changes are essential for minimizing food scarcity in developing countries. Vegetation trends are also closely related to sustainability issues, such as management of conservation areas and wildlife habitats. In this study, AVHRR and MODIS NDVI datasets have been used to assess the spatial temporal dynamics of vegetation greenness in Rwanda under the contrasting trends of precipitation, for the period starting from 1990 to 2014, and for the first growing season (season A). Based on regression analysis and the Hurst exponent index methods, we have investigated the spatial temporal characteristics and the interrelationships between vegetation greenness and precipitation in light of NDVI and gridded meteorological datasets. The findings revealed that the vegetation cover was characterized by an increasing trend of a maximum annual change rate of 0.043. The results also suggest that 81.3% of the country’s vegetation has improved throughout the study period, while 14.1% of the country’s vegetation degraded, from slight (7.5%) to substantial (6.6%) deterioration. Most pixels with severe degradation were found in Kigali city and the Eastern Province. The analysis of changes per vegetation type highlighted that five types of vegetation are seriously endangered: The “mosaic grassland/forest or shrubland” was severely degraded, followed by “sparse vegetation,” “grassland or woody vegetation regularly flooded on water logged soil,” “artificial surfaces” and “broadleaved forest regularly flooded.” The Hurst exponent results indicated that the vegetation trend was consistent, with a sustainable area percentage of 40.16%, unsustainable area of 1.67% and an unpredictable area of 58.17%. This study will provide government and local authorities with valuable information for improving efficiency in the recently targeted countrywide efforts of environmental protection and regeneration.

This paper aimed to investigate the influence of climatic and topographic factors on the distribution of vegetation in the Virunga Volcanoes Massif using GIS and remote sensing techniques. The climatic variables considered were precipitation, Land Surface Temperature (LST), and evapotranspiration (ET), whereas the topographic factors considered were elevation and aspect. The dataset consisted of MODIS NDVI data, satellite-delivered precipitation, ET, and the LST. A 2014 Landsat 8 OLI image was used to produce a vegetation map of the study area, while DEM was used to derive the elevation attributes and to calculate the aspect angles. Moran’s I and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Model was used to analyze the relationships between the climatic factors and NDVI changes over elevation and aspect. The results indicated that among the nine vegetation types inventoried in the area, the Mean NDVI varied from 0.33 to 0.59 and the optimal vegetation growth was found at an elevation between 2000 and 3900 m, with mean NDVI values larger than 0.50. The peak mean NDVI value of 0.59 was found at the elevation from 2100 to 2800 m. Vegetation growth was found to be more sensitive to elevation, as NDVI values were more varied at a lower elevation (4000 m). Considering the aspect, the greater vegetation growth was found in SE (132°, 148°), SW (182°, 186°), and NW (309.5°–337.5°), with mean NDVI values larger than 0.56. This indicated that vegetation was susceptible to better growth conditions in the lower elevation ranges and in shady areas. The vegetation NDVI in this study area was mostly uncorrelated with precipitation (R² = 0.34), but was strongly correlated with LST (R² = 0.99) and ET (R² = 98). LST (≥18 °C) and ET (1286 mm/year⁻¹) were found to provide optimal conditions for vegetation growth in the Virunga Volcanoes Massif. Empirically, the results concluded that elevation, aspect, LST, and ET are the main factors controlling the spatial distribution and vegetation growth in this area. This information is significantly helpful for biodiversity conservation and constitutes a valuable input to environmental and ecological research.