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Abundant evidence exists that expected utility theory does not adequately describe decision making under risk. Although prospect theory is a popular alternative, it is rarely applied in strategic situations in which risk arises through individual interactions. This study fills this research gap by incorporating prospect theory preferences into a dynamic game theoretic model. Using a large field data set from multiple online pay-per-bid auction sites, the authors empirically show that their proposed model with prospect theory preferences makes a better out-of-sample prediction than a corresponding expected utility model. Prospect theory also provides a unified explanation for two behavioral anomalies: average auctioneer revenues above current retail prices and the sunk cost fallacy. The empirical results indicate that bidders are loss averse and overweight small probabilities, such that the expected revenue of the auction exceeds the current retail price by 25.46%. The authors illustrate and empirically confirm a managerial implication for how an auctioneer can increase revenue by changing the details of the auction design.
Tobias Brünner; Jochen Reiner; Martin Natter; Bernd Skiera. Prospect theory in a dynamic game: Theory and evidence from online pay-per-bid auctions. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 2019, 164, 215 -234.
AMA StyleTobias Brünner, Jochen Reiner, Martin Natter, Bernd Skiera. Prospect theory in a dynamic game: Theory and evidence from online pay-per-bid auctions. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. 2019; 164 ():215-234.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTobias Brünner; Jochen Reiner; Martin Natter; Bernd Skiera. 2019. "Prospect theory in a dynamic game: Theory and evidence from online pay-per-bid auctions." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 164, no. : 215-234.
Mystery shopping (MS) is a widely used tool to monitor the quality of service and personal selling. In consultative retail settings, assessments of mystery shoppers are supposed to capture the most relevant aspects of salespeople’s service and sales behavior. Given the important conclusions drawn by managers from MS results, the standard assumption seems to be that assessments of mystery shoppers are strongly related to customer satisfaction and sales performance. However, surprisingly scant empirical evidence supports this assumption. We test the relationship between MS assessments and customer evaluations and sales performance with large-scale data from three service retail chains. Surprisingly, we do not find a substantial correlation. The results show that mystery shoppers are not good proxies for real customers. While MS assessments are not related to sales, our findings confirm the established correlation between customer satisfaction measurements and sales results.
Gerald Blessing; Martin Natter. Do Mystery Shoppers Really Predict Customer Satisfaction and Sales Performance? Journal of Retailing 2019, 95, 47 -62.
AMA StyleGerald Blessing, Martin Natter. Do Mystery Shoppers Really Predict Customer Satisfaction and Sales Performance? Journal of Retailing. 2019; 95 (3):47-62.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGerald Blessing; Martin Natter. 2019. "Do Mystery Shoppers Really Predict Customer Satisfaction and Sales Performance?" Journal of Retailing 95, no. 3: 47-62.
Alfred Taudes; Martin Natter; Olivier Reimann. Udo Wagner zum 65. Geburtstag. Schmalenbachs Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung 2017, 69, 477 -482.
AMA StyleAlfred Taudes, Martin Natter, Olivier Reimann. Udo Wagner zum 65. Geburtstag. Schmalenbachs Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung. 2017; 69 (4):477-482.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfred Taudes; Martin Natter; Olivier Reimann. 2017. "Udo Wagner zum 65. Geburtstag." Schmalenbachs Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung 69, no. 4: 477-482.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare the impact of different multi-unit promotions (MUPs) and a single-unit promotion (SUP) on store-level sales and consumer-level purchase probability and quantity decision. Design/methodology/approach The paper combines two empirical studies. Study 1 applies a hierarchical multiplicative model to store-level sales data for four product categories provided by a large Dutch retail chain. Study 2 presents a laboratory experiment in which the quantity requirements of the two focal MUP frames are manipulated to assess their impact on consumer purchase decisions. Findings The paper provides empirical evidence for the superiority of the “X for $Y” above “X + N free”, which confirms the hypotheses based on prospect theory, mental accounting and theory about gift-giving. Quantity requirements of four to five units show the largest effects. In addition, the superiority of the “X for $Y” frame holds for functional product categories, but not for the hedonic categories. Practical implications The paper provides managerial insights into the relative effectiveness of alternative MUPs and an SUP and how this promotional effectiveness depends on the type of product category and quantity requirements. Originality/value This paper combines actual sales data and experimental data. This “mixed approach” extends existing knowledge by comprehensively evaluating two MUP frames, namely, “X + N free” and “X for $Y” promotions, and an SUP.
Salome Drechsler; Peter S. H. Leeflang; Tammo H. A. Bijmolt; Martin Natter. Multi-unit price promotions and their impact on purchase decisions and sales. European Journal of Marketing 2017, 51, 1049 -1074.
AMA StyleSalome Drechsler, Peter S. H. Leeflang, Tammo H. A. Bijmolt, Martin Natter. Multi-unit price promotions and their impact on purchase decisions and sales. European Journal of Marketing. 2017; 51 (5/6):1049-1074.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSalome Drechsler; Peter S. H. Leeflang; Tammo H. A. Bijmolt; Martin Natter. 2017. "Multi-unit price promotions and their impact on purchase decisions and sales." European Journal of Marketing 51, no. 5/6: 1049-1074.
We propose to use neural networks to value options when analytical solutions do not exist. The basic idea of this approach is to approximate the value function of a dynamic program by a neural net, where the selection of the network weights is done via simulated annealing. The main benefits of this method as compared to traditional approximation techniques are that there are no restrictions on the type of the underlying stochastic process and no limitations on the set of possible actions. This makes our approach especially attractive for valuing Real Options in flexible investments. We, therefore, demonstrate the method proposed by valuing flexibility for costly switch production between several products under various conditions. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Alfred Taudes; Martin Natter; Michael Trcka. Real option valuation with neural networks. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management 1998, 7, 43 -52.
AMA StyleAlfred Taudes, Martin Natter, Michael Trcka. Real option valuation with neural networks. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management. 1998; 7 (1):43-52.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfred Taudes; Martin Natter; Michael Trcka. 1998. "Real option valuation with neural networks." Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management 7, no. 1: 43-52.