Adaptation to climate change in forestry has become a growing concern, in part due to the impact of storms and other events that have raised the awareness of such risks amongst forest owners. Sweden is one of Europe’s most densely-forested countries, with this sector playing a major role economically. However adaptation has, to a large extent, been limited to the provision of recommendations to forest managers, most of which have only been partially implemented. This paper summarizes research with direct implications for adaptation to climate change within the forestry sector in Sweden. The focus is based in particular on providing examples of adaptations that illustrate the specific Swedish orientation to adaptation, in line with its relatively intensive forest management system. The paper thus illustrates a specific Swedish orientation to adaptation through active management, which can be contrasted with approaches to adaptation in other forestry systems, in particular those with limited management or management based on maintaining natural forests in particular.

Key message: There is considerable genetic gain of tree volume from clonal deployment in Norway spruce (Picea abies(L.) H. Karst) and clonal deployment will have at least 50% more or double genetic gain than the seedling deployment. Context: Genetic parameters and genetic gains for wood quality and growth traits were estimated in six large clonal progeny trials. Aims: Develop the optimal clonal deployment strategy of Norway spruce in Sweden. Methods: Wood quality and growth traits were measured in all clonal trials and additive and non-additive genetic variances are partitioned. Results: Additive and non-additive genetic variances were equally important for growth traits while non-additive variance was small or not significant for wood quality trait. The genetic gain predicted for clonal deployment was greater than any of the other four deployment strategies. Selecting the top 1% of tested clones (clonal forestry) would have 48.4% and 134.6% more gain than the gain predicted for the seedling deployment of selected full-sib families and half-sib family (family forestry), respectively, at the same selection intensity. Conclusion: This study highlights that testing of 30–40 clones per family would maximize the realized genetic gain for different clonal selection scenarios, either selecting the best ten or 20 clones without any co-ancestry restrictions or selecting the best single clone from each of the best ten or 20 families (e.g., co-ancestry restriction). Clonal mean selection and vegetative deployment are the most effective.

Deciding how to establish woodland in forest restoration is not straightforward as different outcomes may be obtained from different establishment approaches, each with cost implications and degree of success limitations attached. Planning restoration requires knowledge of site conditions, including how sites are likely to respond under climate change. For objectives of production and high timber quality it is likely that ground preparation will be used, and planting with forest reproductive material (FRM) of known traits, such as: high survival and growth in establishment, drought tolerance adequate for climate projections, good resistance to pests and pathogens. For objectives associated with biodiversity, carbon sequestration, water supply protection, soil protection, natural regeneration could be a less costly solution with a limited amount of assisted translocation of selected FRM to improve resilience. If objectives are for rewilding forest areas, a degree of natural colonisation perhaps with translocation of some FRM could be a solution. Ignoring site conditions and suitability of available sources of FRM for forest restoration is likely to provide unexpected results with a mix of open ground, scrub and scattered trees resulting from climate, herbivore, and browsing impacts. The recent B4EST EU Horizon 2020 project examined progress in novel rapid approaches for testing the quality of FRM from existing genetic trials. Here we review the work of B4EST to show the opportunities from transformative tree breeding in forest restoration schemes, including: new climate projection ensembles at high temporal and spatial resolution to develop norms of reaction and transfer models with genetic components; multi-environment genotype-phenotype associations and multi-locus genotype-environment associations in identifying drivers of local adaptation; techniques for genomic selection using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays to derive functional traits from polygenic associations; work on seed orchard site and climate specific FRM and zones for deployment; and work on some of the forest ecosystem service benefits derived at a landscape scale. We conclude that tree-breeding will provide robust forest restoration for planting, and rewilding (assisted natural regeneration), and if not “ignoring” but instead assisting natural colonisation processes – tree breeding may improve long-term forest resilience under environmental change.

Summary: Vast population movements induced by recurrent climatic cycles have shaped the genetic structure of plant species. During glacial periods species were confined to low‐latitude refugia from which they recolonized higher latitudes as the climate improved. This multipronged recolonization led to many lineages that later met and formed large contact zones. We utilize genomic data from 5000 Picea abies trees to test for the presence of natural selection during recolonization and establishment of a contact zone in Scandinavia. Scandinavian P. abies is today made up of a southern genetic cluster originating from the Baltics, and a northern one originating from Northern Russia. The contact zone delineating them closely matches the limit between two major climatic regions. We show that natural selection contributed to its establishment and maintenance. First, an isolation‐with‐migration model with genome‐wide linked selection fits the data better than a purely neutral one. Second, many loci show signatures of selection or are associated with environmental variables. These loci, regrouped in clusters on chromosomes, are often related to phenology. Altogether, our results illustrate how climatic cycles, recolonization and selection can establish strong local adaptation along contact zones and affect the genetic architecture of adaptive traits.