Short-term electrical load forecasting plays an important role in the safety, stability, and sustainability of the power production and scheduling process. An accurate prediction of power load can provide a reliable decision for power system management. To solve the limitation of the existing load forecasting methods in dealing with time-series data, causing the poor stability and non-ideal forecasting accuracy, this paper proposed an attention-based encoder-decoder network with Bayesian optimization to do the accurate short-term power load forecasting. Proposed model is based on an encoder-decoder architecture with a gated recurrent units (GRU) recurrent neural network with high robustness on time-series data modeling. The temporal attention layer focuses on the key features of input data that play a vital role in promoting the prediction accuracy for load forecasting. Finally, the Bayesian optimization method is used to confirm the model’s hyperparameters to achieve optimal predictions. The verification experiments of 24 h load forecasting with real power load data from American Electric Power (AEP) show that the proposed model outperforms other models in terms of prediction accuracy and algorithm stability, providing an effective approach for migrating time-serial power load prediction by deep-learning technology.
Smart agricultural greenhouses provide well-controlled conditions for crop cultivation but require accurate prediction of environmental factors to ensure ideal crop growth and management efficiency. Due to the limitations of existing predictors in dealing with massive, nonlinear, and dynamic temporal data, this study proposes a bidirectional self-attentive encoder–decoder framework (BEDA) to construct the long-time predictor for multiple environmental factors with high nonlinearity and noise in a smart greenhouse. Firstly, the original data are denoised by wavelet threshold filter and pretreatment operations. Secondly, the bidirectional long short-term-memory is selected as the fundamental unit to extract time-serial features. Then, the multi-head self-attention mechanism is incorporated into the encoder–decoder framework to improve the prediction performance. Experimental investigations are conducted in a practical greenhouse to accurately predict indoor environmental factors (temperature, humidity, and CO2) from noisy IoT-based sensors. The best model for all datasets was the proposed BEDA method, with the root mean square error of three factors’ prediction reduced to 2.726, 3.621, and 49.817, and with an R of 0.749 for temperature, 0.848 for humidity, and 0.8711 for CO2 concentration, respectively. The experimental results show that the favorable prediction accuracy, robustness, and generalization of the proposed method make it suitable to more precisely manage greenhouses.
Deep learning effectively identifies and predicts modes but faces performance reduction under few-shot learning conditions. In this paper, a time series prediction framework for small samples is proposed, including a data augmentation algorithm, time series trend decomposition, multi-model prediction, and error-based fusion. First, data samples are augmented by retaining and extracting time series features. Second, the expanded data are decomposed based on data trends, and then, multiple deep models are used for prediction. Third, the models’ predictive outputs are combined with an error estimate from the intersection of covariances. Finally, the method is verified using natural systems and classic small-scale simulation datasets. The results show that the proposed method can improve the prediction accuracy of small sample sets with data augmentation and multi-model fusion.