Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

About 41% of households globally, mainly in developing countries rely on solid fuels for cooking with consequences for fetal growth and development. Previous reviews were limited in scope, assessing only two outcomes (birth weight, stillbirth). With important evidence accumulating, there is a need to improve the previous estimates and assess additional outcomes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the quality and strength of available evidence on household air pollution (HAP) and the whole range of adverse pregnancy outcomes. PubMed, Ovid Medline, Scopus and CINAHL were searched from their inception to the end of April 2013. All epidemiological study designs were eligible for inclusion in the review. The random-effects model was applied in computing the summary-effect estimates (EE) and their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Of 1505 studies screened, 19 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria. Household combustion of solid fuels resulted in an 86.43 g (95% CI: 55.49, 117.37) reduction in birth weight, and a 35% (EE = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.23, 1.48) and 29% (EE = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.41) increased risk of LBW and stillbirth respectively. Combustion of solid fuels at home increases the risk of a wide range of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Access to clean household energy solutions is the surest way to combat HAP and mitigate their adverse effects.

Globally, 41% of households, over 2.8 billion people, rely on solid fuels (coal and biomass) for cooking and heating. In developing countries in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa where these fuels are predominantly used, women who are customarily responsible for cooking, and their young children, are most exposed to the resulting air pollution. Solid fuels are still in widespread use and it appears that intervention efforts are not keeping pace with population growth in developing countries. Here we pinpoint the challenges and identify opportunities for addressing household air pollution while mitigating global climate change and promoting the sustainable development goals. We recommend the following actions: implementation of the WHO indoor air quality guidelines on household fuel combustion; effective promotion and dissemination of improved cookstoves through formation of country alliances for clean cookstoves; expansion of liquefied petroleum gas production facilities and distribution networks; harnessing renewable energy potential; promotion of biogas production at both household and community level; ensuring improved ventilation of homes through education and enforcement of building standards; and exploiting opportunities in the health and other sectors for changing health-damaging cooking behaviour.

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from −90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures (‘lockdowns’). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95–0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92–0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94–1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96–1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88–1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88–1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87–1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02–1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03–1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03–1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05–1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways.

Three previous reviews on the association of vitamin D insufficiency in pregnancy with preterm birth (PTB) and stillbirth were limited in scope and deemed inconclusive. With important new evidence accumulating, there is the need to update the previous estimates and assess evidence on other clinically important outcomes such as spontaneous abortion and Apgar score. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the quality and strength of the available evidence on the relations between vitamin D nutritional status, and pregnancy and birth outcomes. PubMed and Scopus databases were searched from their inception to June, 2015 with no language restrictions imposed. Eighteen longitudinal studies satisfied the inclusion criteria. Random effects model was applied in computing the summary effect estimates and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Serum 25(OH)D levels <75 nmol/l was associated with 83% (95% CI: 1.23, 2.74) and 13% (95% CI: 0.94, 1.36) increased risk of PTB measured at <32–34 weeks and <35–37 weeks, respectively. An inverse dose-response relation was observed for both PTB outcome. Serum 25(OH)D levels <75 nmol/l was also associated with 11% increased risk of spontaneous PTB (<35–37 weeks; RR = 1.11; 95% CI: 0.75, 1.65) with a dose-response relation also noted. Vitamin D insufficiency was not associated with risk of spontaneous abortion and stillbirth (RR of 1.04 [95% CI: 0.95, 1.13] and 1.02 [95% CI: 0.96, 1.09], respectively), as well as short gestational length (ES = -0.24, 95% CI: -0.69, 0.22), and low Apgar score. We found vitamin D insufficiency to be associated with risk of PTB. Regarding spontaneous abortion and stillbirth, the available evidence suggest no association with low vitamin D levels. The evidence on vitamin D nutrition and Apgar score is conflicting and controversial. Overall, the experimental evidence uncovered was small and weak. Hence, the benefits of vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy should be further evaluated through rigorous intervention studies.