Background: Diabetes Mellitus is an increasingly prevalent chronic disease characterized by the body’s inability to metabolize glucose. The objective of this study was to build an effective predictive model with high sensitivity and selectivity to better identify Canadian patients at risk of having Diabetes Mellitus based on patient demographic data and the laboratory results during their visits to medical facilities. Methods: Using the most recent records of 13,309 Canadian patients aged between 18 and 90 years, along with their laboratory information (age, sex, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein), we built predictive models using Logistic Regression and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) techniques. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory capability of these models. We used the adjusted threshold method and the class weight method to improve sensitivity – the proportion of Diabetes Mellitus patients correctly predicted by the model. We also compared these models to other learning machine techniques such as Decision Tree and Random Forest. Results: The AROC for the proposed GBM model is 84.7% with a sensitivity of 71.6% and the AROC for the proposed Logistic Regression model is 84.0% with a sensitivity of 73.4%. The GBM and Logistic Regression models perform better than the Random Forest and Decision Tree models. Conclusions: The ability of our model to predict patients with Diabetes using some commonly used lab results is high with satisfactory sensitivity. These models can be built into an online computer program to help physicians in predicting patients with future occurrence of diabetes and providing necessary preventive interventions. The model is developed and validated on the Canadian population which is more specific and powerful to apply on Canadian patients than existing models developed from US or other populations. Fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides were the most important predictors in these models.

Background: Many methods under the umbrella of inter-rater agreement (IRA) have been proposed to evaluate how well two or more medical experts agree on a set of outcomes. The objective of this work was to assess key IRA statistics in the context of multiple raters with binary outcomes. Methods: We simulated the responses of several raters (2–5) with 20, 50, 300, and 500 observations. For each combination of raters and observations, we estimated the expected value and variance of four commonly used inter-rater agreement statistics (Fleiss’ Kappa, Light’s Kappa, Conger’s Kappa, and Gwet’s AC1). Results: In the case of equal outcome prevalence (symmetric), the estimated expected values of all four statistics were equal. In the asymmetric case, only the estimated expected values of the three Kappa statistics were equal. In the symmetric case, Fleiss’ Kappa yielded a higher estimated variance than the other three statistics. In the asymmetric case, Gwet’s AC1 yielded a lower estimated variance than the three Kappa statistics for each scenario. Conclusion: Since the population-level prevalence of a set of outcomes may not be known a priori, Gwet’s AC1 statistic should be favored over the three Kappa statistics. For meaningful direct comparisons between IRA measures, transformations between statistics should be conducted.

Graphical Gaussian models with edge and vertex symmetries were introduced by Højsgaard & Lauritzen (2008), who gave an algorithm for computing the maximum likelihood estimate of the precision matrix for such models. In this paper, we take a Bayesian approach to its estimation. We consider only models with symmetry constraints and which thus form a natural exponential family with the precision matrix as the canonical parameter. We identify the Diaconis–Ylvisaker conjugate prior for these models, develop a scheme to sample from the prior and posterior distributions, and thus obtain estimates of the posterior mean of the precision and covariance matrices. Such a sampling scheme is essential for model selection in coloured graphical Gaussian models. In order to verify the precision of our estimates, we derive an analytic expression for the expected value of the precision matrix when the graph underlying our model is a tree, a complete graph on three vertices, or a decomposable graph on four vertices with various symmetries, and we compare our estimates with the posterior mean of the precision matrix and the expected mean of the coloured graphical Gaussian model, that is, of the covariance matrix. We also verify the accuracy of our estimates on simulated data.

Summary: We consider situations where the data consist of a number of responses for each individual, which may include a mix of discrete and continuous variables. The data also include a class of predictors, where the same predictor may have different physical measurements across different experiments depending on how the predictor is measured. The goal is to select which predictors affect any of the responses, where the number of such informative predictors tends to infinity as the sample size increases. There are marginal likelihoods for each experiment; we specify a pseudolikelihood combining the marginal likelihoods, and propose a pseudolikelihood information criterion. Under regularity conditions, we establish selection consistency for this criterion with unbounded true model size. The proposed method includes a Bayesian information criterion with appropriate penalty term as a special case. Simulations indicate that data integration can dramatically improve upon using only one data source.

Motivated by questions arising from the field of statistical genetics, we consider the problem of testing main, nested, and interaction effects in unbalanced factorial designs. Based on the concept...