Coastal upwelling systems off the coasts of Peru and Chile are among the most productive marine ecosystems in the world, sustaining a significant percentage of global primary production and fishery yields. Seasonal and interannual variability in these systems has been relatively well documented; however, an understanding of recent trends and the influence of climate change on marine processes such as surface cooling and primary productivity is limited. This study presents evidence that winds favorable to upwelling have increased within the southern boundary of the Humboldt Current System (35°–42°S) in recent decades. This trend is consistent with a poleward movement of the influence of the Southeast Pacific Anticyclone and resembles the spatial pattern projected by Global Circulation Models for warming scenarios. Chlorophyll a levels (from 2002 to present) determined by satellite and field-based time-series observations show a positive trend, mainly in austral spring–summer (December–January–February), potentially explained by observed increments in nutrient flux towards surface waters and photosynthetically active radiation. Both parameters appear to respond to alongshore wind stress and cloud cover in the latitudinal range of 35°S to 42°S. In addition, net annual deepening of the mixed layer depth is estimated using density and temperature profiles. Changes in this depth are associated with increasing winds and may explain cooler, more saline, and more productive surface waters, with the latter potentially causing fluctuations in dissolved oxygen and other gases, such as nitrous oxide, sensitive to changes in oxygenation. We argue that these recent changes represent, at least in part, a regional manifestation of the Anthropocene along the Chilean coast.

The South Pacific Subtropical High (SPSH) is a predominant feature of the South American climate. The variability of this high-pressure center induces changes in the intensity of coastal alongshore winds and precipitation, among others, over southwestern South America. In recent decades, strengthening and expansion of the SPSH have been observed and attributed to the current global warming. These changes have led to an intensification of the southerly winds along the coast of northern to central Chile and a decrease in precipitation from central to southern Chile. Motivated by improving our understanding about the regional impacts of climate change in this part of the Southern Hemisphere, we analyzed SPSH changes during the two most extreme climate events of the last millennium, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP: 1970–2000), based on paleoclimate records and CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations. In order to assess the level of agreement of general circulation models, we also compare them with ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the 1979–2009 period as a complementary analysis. Finally, with the aim of evaluating future SPSH behavior, we include 21st century projections under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario in our analyses. Our results indicate that during the relative warm (cold) period, the SPSH expands (contracts). Together with this change, alongshore winds intensify (weaken) south (north) of ∼35 ^∘ S; also, southern westerly winds become stronger (weaker) and shift southward (northward). Model results generally underestimate reanalysis data. These changes are in good agreement with paleoclimate records, which suggest that these variations could be related to tropical climate dynamics but also to extratropical phenomena. However, although models adequately represent most of the South American climate changes, they fail to represent the Intertropical Convergence Zone–Hadley cell system dynamics, emphasizing the importance of improving tropical system dynamics in simulations for a better understanding of its effects on South America. Climate model projections indicate that changes recently observed will continue during the next decades, highlighting the need to establish effective mitigation and adaptation strategies against their environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

The ocean off south-central Chile is subject to seasonal upwelling whose intensity is mainly controlled by the latitudinal migration of the southeast Pacific subtropical anticyclone. During austral spring and summer, the mean flow is equatorward favoring coastal upwelling, but periods of strong southerly winds are intermixed with periods of relaxed southerlies or weak northerly winds (downwelling favorable). This sub-seasonal, high-frequency variability of the coastal winds results in pronounced changes in oceanographic conditions and air-sea heat and gas exchanges, whose quantitative description has been limited by the lack of in-situ monitoring. In this study, high frequency fluctuations of meteorological, oceanographic and biogeochemical near surface variables were analyzed during two consecutive upwelling seasons (2016–17 and 2017–18) using observations from a coastal buoy located in the continental shelf off south-central Chile (36.4°S, 73°W), ∼10 km off the coast. The radiative-driven diel cycle is noticeable in meteorological variables but less pronounced for oceanographic and biogeochemical variables [ocean temperature, nitrate (NO₃−), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO_2sea), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO)]. Fluorescence, as a proxy of chlorophyll-a, showed diel variations more controlled by biological processes. In the synoptic scale, 23 active upwelling events (strong southerlies, lasting between 2 and 15 days, 6 days in average) were identified, alternated with periods of relaxed southerlies of shorter duration (4.5 days in average). Upwelling events were related to the development of an atmospheric low-level coastal jet in response to an intense along-shore pressure gradient. Physical and biogeochemical surface seawater properties responded to upwelling favorable wind stress with approximately a 12-h lag. During upwelling events, SST, DO and pH decrease, while NO₃−, pCO_2sea, and air-sea fluxes increases. During the relaxed southerly wind periods, opposite tendencies were observed. The fluorescence response to wind variations is complex and diverse, but in many cases there was a reduction in the phytoplankton biomass during the upwelling events followed by higher values during wind relaxations. The sub-seasonal variability of the coastal ocean characterized here is important for biogeochemical and productivity studies.

In contrast to other coastal regions of the world, the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) ecosystem in southwestern Patagonia has been persistent in area and associated biodiversity in the last decades. In this ecoregion, sea surface temperature (SST) records have consistently remained below the upper thermal threshold for kelp survival, however, no studies have analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of SSTs and their anomalies across the geographical diversity of the southwestern Patagonian coastline. We explored the geographical distribution of extreme warm and cold events in this region from latitudes 47°–56°S in a range of ∼1,000 km, identifying the dates and spatial distribution of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and marine cold‐spells (MCSs) from 1982 to 2020. Results show that a peak in the number of MHWs occurred in the great El Niño year of 1998. Additionally, the 2014–2019 period has had more severe and extreme MCSs than the previous decades. We discuss the origin of these events with a focus on three main processes: (a) geographically constrained cold events caused by glacier melting, (b) regional cold events caused by extreme winds linked to the position of the polar front, and (c) extensive SST anomalies linked to planetary‐scale events such as El Niño and La Niña. Overall, those processes were conductive to counteract global warming trends locally/regionally, highlighting southwestern Patagonia as a possible climatic refugium for the giant kelp ecosystem. Despite this, the effects of freshwater inputs and storm turbulence on the exposed coasts facing the Southern Ocean may cause new kinds of stress on this ecosystem.

Surface winds along the subtropical west coast of South America are characterized by the quasi-weekly occurrences of low-level jet events. These short lived but intense wind events impact the coastal ocean environment. Hence, identifying long-term trends in the coastal low-level jet (CLLJ) is essential for understanding changes in marine ecosystems. Here we use ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2019) and an objective algorithm to track anticyclones to investigate recent changes in CLLJ events off central Chile (25–43 °S). Results present evidence that the number of days with intense wind (≥10 ms⁻¹), and the number and duration of CLLJ events have significantly changed off central Chile in recent decades. There is an increase in the number of CLLJ events in the whole study area during winter (June-July-August; JJA), while during summer (December–January–February; DJF) a decrease is observed at lower latitudes (29–34 °S), and an increase is found at the southern boundary of the Humboldt system. We suggest that changes in the central pressures and frequency of extratropical, migratory anticyclones that reach the coast of South America, which force CLLJs, have played an important role in the recent CLLJ changes observed in this region.