Vegetation composition shifts, and in particular, shrub expansion across the Arctic tundra are some of the most important and widely observed responses of high-latitude ecosystems to rapid climate warming. These changes in vegetation potentially alter ecosystem carbon balances by affecting a complex set of soil–plant–atmosphere interactions. In this review, we synthesize the literature on (a) observed shrub expansion, (b) key climatic and environmental controls and mechanisms that affect shrub expansion, (c) impacts of shrub expansion on ecosystem carbon balance, and (d) research gaps and future directions to improve process representations in land models. A broad range of evidence, includingin-situobservations, warming experiments, and remotely sensed vegetation indices have shown increases in growth and abundance of woody plants, particularly tall deciduous shrubs, and advancing shrublines across the circumpolar Arctic. This recent shrub expansion is affected by several interacting factors including climate warming, accelerated nutrient cycling, changing disturbance regimes, and local variation in topography and hydrology. Under warmer conditions, tall deciduous shrubs can be more competitive than other plant functional types in tundra ecosystems because of their taller maximum canopy heights and often dense canopy structure. Competitive abilities of tall deciduous shrubs vs herbaceous plants are also controlled by variation in traits that affect carbon and nutrient investments and retention strategies in leaves, stems, and roots. Overall, shrub expansion may affect tundra carbon balances by enhancing ecosystem carbon uptake and altering ecosystem respiration, and through complex feedback mechanisms that affect snowpack dynamics, permafrost degradation, surface energy balance, and litter inputs. Observed and projected tall deciduous shrub expansion and the subsequent effects on surface energy and carbon balances may alter feedbacks to the climate system. Land models, including those integrated in Earth System Models, need to account for differences in plant traits that control competitive interactions to accurately predict decadal- to centennial-scale tundra vegetation and carbon dynamics.

Thermokarst is the process of ground subsidence caused by either the thawing of ice-rich permafrost or the melting of massive ground ice. The consequences of permafrost degradation associated with thermokarst for surface ecology, landscape evolution, and hydrological processes have been of great scientific interest and social concern. Part of a tundra patch affected by wildfire in northern Alaska (27.5 km²) was investigated here, using remote sensing and in situ surveys to quantify and understand permafrost thaw dynamics after surface disturbances. A two-pass differential InSAR technique using L-band ALOS-PALSAR has been shown capable of capturing thermokarst subsidence triggered by a tundra fire at a spatial resolution of tens of meters, with supporting evidence from field data and optical satellite images. We have introduced a calibration procedure, comparing burned and unburned areas for InSAR subsidence signals, to remove the noise due to seasonal surface movement. In the first year after the fire, an average subsidence rate of 6.2 cm/year (vertical) was measured. Subsidence in the burned area continued over the following two years, with decreased rates. The mean rate of subsidence observed in our interferograms (from 24 July 2008 to 14 September 2010) was 3.3 cm/year, a value comparable to that estimated from field surveys at two plots on average (2.2 cm/year) for the six years after the fire. These results suggest that this InSAR-measured ground subsidence is caused by the development of thermokarst, a thawing process supported by surface change observations from high-resolution optical images and in situ ground level surveys.

The larch (Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. Its persistence is considered to depend on near‐surface permafrost, and thus, forecast warming over the 21st century and consequent degradation of near‐surface permafrost is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of these effects vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land – atmosphere interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo‐hydrology, although it does not consider many processes those are considered to affect productivity response to a changing climate (e.g., nitrogen limitation, waterlogged soil, heat stress, and change in species composition). The model showed that, under climatic conditions predicted under gradual and rapid warming, the annual net primary production of larch increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of the 21st century compared with that in the previous century. Soil water content during the larch‐growing season showed no obvious trend, even when surface permafrost was allowed to decay and result in subsurface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecast temperature and precipitation trends extended larch leafing days and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity. The integrated model also satisfactorily reconstructed latitudinal gradients in permafrost presence, soil moisture, tree leaf area index, and biomass over the entire larch‐dominated area in eastern Siberia. Projected changes to ecosystem hydrology and larch productivity at this geographical scale were consistent with those from site‐level simulation. This study reduces the uncertainty surrounding the impact of current climate trends on this globally important carbon reservoir, and it demonstrates the need to consider complex ecological processes to make accurate predictions.