Climate change plays a pivotal role in shaping the shifting patterns of plant distribution, and gaining insights into how medicinal plants in the plateau region adapt to climate change will be instrumental in safeguarding the rich biodiversity of the highlands. Gymnosia orchidis Lindl. (G. orchidis) is a valuable Tibetan medicinal resource with significant medicinal, ecological, and economic value. However, the growth of G. orchidis is severely constrained by stringent natural conditions, leading to a drastic decline in its resources. Therefore, it is crucial to study the suitable habitat areas of G. orchidis to facilitate future artificial cultivation and maintain ecological balance. In this study, we investigated the suitable zones of G. orchidis based on 79 occurrence points in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) and 23 major environmental variables, including climate, topography, and soil type. We employed the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate and predict the spatial distribution and configuration changes in G. orchidis during different time periods, including the last interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and future scenarios (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Our results indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12, 613–2466 mm) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11, −5.8–8.5 °C) were the primary factors influencing the suitable habitat of G. orchidis, with a cumulative contribution of 78.5%. The precipitation and temperature during the driest season had the most significant overall impact. Under current climate conditions, the suitable areas of G. orchidis covered approximately 63.72 × 10⁴/km², encompassing Yunnan, Gansu, Sichuan, and parts of Xizang provinces, with the highest suitability observed in the Hengduan, Yunlin, and Himalayan mountain regions. In the past, the suitable area of G. orchidis experienced significant changes during the Mid-Holocene, including variations in the total area and centroid migration direction. In future scenarios, the suitable habitat of G. orchidis is projected to expand significantly under SSP370 (30.33–46.19%), followed by SSP585 (1.41–22.3%), while contraction is expected under SSP126. Moreover, the centroids of suitable areas exhibited multidirectional movement, with the most extensive displacement observed under SSP585 (100.38 km²). This study provides a theoretical foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and endangered medicinal plants in the QTP.

Human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP) is an important indicator for assessing ecological sustainability. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of HANPP in the Qinghai grasslands remain unclear. In this study, we used the spatially explicit Biome-BGCMuSo model to quantify and map HANPP in the Qinghai grasslands from 1979 to 2018. Generally, the actual net primary productivity (NPP_act) was slightly lower than the potential net primary productivity (NPP_pot), and the difference between the NPP_pot and NPP_act increased slightly over time. From 1979 to 2001, the NPP_pot and NPP_act were relatively stable; however, from 2001 to 2018, both showed significant fluctuating upward trends. From 1979 to 2018, HANPP showed a fluctuating upward trend from 6.36 to 31.85 gC/m²/yr, with an average increase of 2.14 gC/m²/yr. The average HANPP was 16.90 gC/m²/yr, which represented 18.80% of the NPP_pot of Qinghai grasslands. High HANPP mainly occurred in eastern Qinghai, whereas it was low in central and western Qinghai. Conversely, from 1979 to 2018, the HANPP efficiency decreased in a fluctuating way from 98.28% to 72.05%, with an average annual decrease of 0.66%. The interannual variations in the HANPP efficiency and harvest were negatively correlated, with a correlation coefficient of −0.46 (p < 0.01). The average HANPP efficiency was 85.33%, and the values in most grids were between 80% and 100%, being relatively low in southern and eastern Qinghai. In rare cases, the HANPP efficiency was greater than 1. This study clarifies the details of spatiotemporal dynamics of HANPP in the Qinghai grasslands and indicates the need to optimize local management of grassland resources to ensure future ecological sustainability.

Alpine wetlands sequester large amounts of soil carbon, so it is vital to gain a full understanding of their land-atmospheric CO₂ exchanges and how they contribute to regional carbon neutrality; such an understanding is currently lacking for the Qinghai—Tibet Plateau (QTP), which is undergoing unprecedented climate warming. We analyzed two-year (2018–2019) continuous CO₂ flux data, measured by eddy covariance techniques, to quantify the carbon budgets of two alpine wetlands (Luanhaizi peatland (LHZ) and Xiaobohu swamp (XBH)) on the northeastern QTP. At an 8-day scale, boosted regression tree model-based analysis showed that variations in growing season CO₂ fluxes were predominantly determined by atmospheric water vapor, having a relative contribution of more than 65%. Variations in nongrowing season CO₂ fluxes were mainly controlled by site (categorical variable) and topsoil temperature (T_s), with cumulative relative contributions of 81.8%. At a monthly scale, structural equation models revealed that net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) at both sites was regulated more by gross primary productivity (GPP), than by ecosystem respiration (RES), which were both in turn directly controlled by atmospheric water vapor. The general linear model showed that variations in nongrowing season CO₂ fluxes were significantly (p < 0.001) driven by the main effect of site and T_s. Annually, LHZ acted as a net carbon source, and NEE, GPP, and RES were 41.5 ± 17.8, 631.5 ± 19.4, and 673.0 ± 37.2 g C/(m² year), respectively. XBH behaved as a net carbon sink, and NEE, GPP, and RES were –40.9 ± 7.5, 595.1 ± 15.4, and 554.2 ± 7.9 g C/(m² year), respectively. These distinctly different carbon budgets were primarily caused by the nongrowing season RES being approximately twice as large at LHZ (p < 0.001), rather than by other equivalent growing season CO₂ fluxes (p > 0.10). Overall, variations in growing season CO₂ fluxes were mainly controlled by atmospheric water vapor, while those of the nongrowing season were jointly determined by site attributes and soil temperatures. Our results highlight the different carbon functions of alpine peatland and alpine swampland, and show that nongrowing season CO₂ emissions should be taken into full consideration when upscaling regional carbon budgets. Current and predicted marked winter warming will directly stimulate increased CO₂ emissions from alpine wetlands, which will positively feedback to climate change.