Patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) experience 50% recurrence despite pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), and no consensus is established for secondary treatments. The aim of our i-STRATIFICATION study is to provide evidence for stratifying patients with AF recurrence after PVI to optimal pharmacological and ablation therapies, through in silico trials. A cohort of 800 virtual patients, with variability in atrial anatomy, electrophysiology, and tissue structure (low-voltage areas, LVAs), was developed and validated against clinical data from ionic currents to electrocardiogram. Virtual patients presenting AF post-PVI underwent 12 secondary treatments. Sustained AF developed in 522 virtual patients after PVI. Second ablation procedures involving left atrial ablation alone showed 55% efficacy, only succeeding in the small right atria (<60 mL). When additional cavo-tricuspid isthmus ablation was considered, Marshall-PLAN sufficed (66% efficacy) for the small left atria (<90 mL). For the bigger left atria, a more aggressive ablation approach was required, such as anterior mitral line (75% efficacy) or posterior wall isolation plus mitral isthmus ablation (77% efficacy). Virtual patients with LVAs greatly benefited from LVA ablation in the left and right atria (100% efficacy). Conversely, in the absence of LVAs, synergistic ablation and pharmacotherapy could terminate AF. In the absence of ablation, the patient’s ionic current substrate modulated the response to antiarrhythmic drugs, being the inward currents critical for optimal stratification to amiodarone or vernakalant. In silico trials identify optimal strategies for AF treatment based on virtual patient characteristics, evidencing the power of human modelling and simulation as a clinical assisting tool.

Electro-anatomical voltage, conduction velocity (CV) mapping, and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have been correlated with atrial cardiomyopathy (ACM). However, the comparability between these modalities remains unclear. This study aims to (i) compare pathological substrate extent and location between current modalities, (ii) establish spatial histograms in a cohort, (iii) develop a new estimated optimized image intensity threshold (EOIIT) for LGE-MRI identifying patients with ACM, (iv) predict rhythm outcome after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). Thirty-six ablation-naive persistent AF patients underwent LGE-MRI and high-definition electro-anatomical mapping in sinus rhythm. Late gadolinium enhancement areas were classified using the UTAH, image intensity ratio (IIR >1.20), and new EOIIT method for comparison to low-voltage substrate (LVS) and slow conduction areas <0.2 m/s. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to determine LGE thresholds optimally matching LVS. Atrial cardiomyopathy was defined as LVS extent ≥5% of the left atrium (LA) surface at <0.5 mV. The degree and distribution of detected pathological substrate (percentage of individual LA surface are) varied significantly (P < 0.001) across the mapping modalities: 10% (interquartile range 0–14%) of the LA displayed LVS <0.5 mV vs. 7% (0–12%) slow conduction areas 1.20, with most discrepancies on the posterior LA. Optimized image intensity thresholds and each patient’s mean blood pool intensity correlated linearly (R² = 0.89, P < 0.001). Concordance between LGE-MRI-based and LVS-based ACM diagnosis improved with the novel EOIIT applied at the anterior LA [83% sensitivity, 79% specificity, area under the curve (AUC): 0.89] in comparison to the UTAH method (67% sensitivity, 75% specificity, AUC: 0.81) and IIR >1.20 (75% sensitivity, 62% specificity, AUC: 0.67). Discordances in detected pathological substrate exist between LVS, CV, and LGE-MRI in the LA, irrespective of the LGE detection method. The new EOIIT method improves concordance of LGE-MRI-based ACM diagnosis with LVS in ablation-naive AF patients but discrepancy remains particularly on the posterior wall. All methods may enable the prediction of rhythm outcomes after PVI in patients with persistent AF.

The arrhythmogenesis of atrial fibrillation is associated with the presence of fibrotic atrial tissue. Not only fibrosis but also physiological anatomical variability of the atria and the thorax reflect in altered morphology of the P wave in the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). Distinguishing between the effects on the P wave induced by local atrial substrate changes and those caused by healthy anatomical variations is important to gauge the potential of the 12-lead ECG as a non-invasive and cost-effective tool for the early detection of fibrotic atrial cardiomyopathy to stratify atrial fibrillation propensity. In this work, we realized 54,000 combinations of different atria and thorax geometries from statistical shape models capturing anatomical variability in the general population. For each atrial model, 10 different volume fractions (0–45%) were defined as fibrotic. Electrophysiological simulations in sinus rhythm were conducted for each model combination and the respective 12-lead ECGs were computed. P wave features (duration, amplitude, dispersion, terminal force in V1) were extracted and compared between the healthy and the diseased model cohorts. All investigated feature values systematically in- or decreased with the left atrial volume fraction covered by fibrotic tissue, however value ranges overlapped between the healthy and the diseased cohort. Using all extracted P wave features as input values, the amount of the fibrotic left atrial volume fraction was estimated by a neural network with an absolute root mean square error of 8.78%. Our simulation results suggest that although all investigated P wave features highly vary for different anatomical properties, the combination of these features can contribute to non-invasively estimate the volume fraction of atrial fibrosis using ECG-based machine learning approaches.

Computer modeling of the electrophysiology of the heart has undergone significant progress. A healthy heart can be modeled starting from the ion channels via the spread of a depolarization wave on a realistic geometry of the human heart up to the potentials on the body surface and the ECG. Research is advancing regarding modeling diseases of the heart. This article reviews progress in calculating and analyzing the corresponding electrocardiogram (ECG) from simulated depolarization and repolarization waves. First, we describe modeling of the P-wave, the QRS complex and the T-wave of a healthy heart. Then, both the modeling and the corresponding ECGs of several important diseases and arrhythmias are delineated: ischemia and infarction, ectopic beats and extrasystoles, ventricular tachycardia, bundle branch blocks, atrial tachycardia, flutter and fibrillation, genetic diseases and channelopathies, imbalance of electrolytes and drug-induced changes. Finally, we outline the potential impact of computer modeling on ECG interpretation. Computer modeling can contribute to a better comprehension of the relation between features in the ECG and the underlying cardiac condition and disease. It can pave the way for a quantitative analysis of the ECG and can support the cardiologist in identifying events or non-invasively localizing diseased areas. Finally, it can deliver very large databases of reliably labeled ECGs as training data for machine learning.