Chile is a country that depends on the extraction and export of its natural resources. This phenomenon has exacerbated different processes of transformation and disturbance of natural and human ecosystems. Land use change has become a key factor for the transformation of ecosystems, causing consequences for biodiversity conservation. In this study, current and future (2030, 2050 and 2080) land use categories were evaluated. Land use projections were analysed together with models of ecosystem distribution in Chile under different climate scenarios, to finally analyse different dynamics of land use change within the protected areas system. In all the scenarios evaluated, land use projections showed an increase in the areas of industrial forest plantations and urban areas and a decrease in natural and agricultural areas could be expected. In relation to ecosystem modeling, vegetational formations located in the center and south of the country could be expected to decrease, while vegetational formations in the north and center of the country could extend their surface area. Inside Chile’s protected area network, anthropic disturbances are currently undergoing expansion, which could have consequences for ecosystems and protected areas located in the central and central–south zones of Chile.

En este artículo se analizan los cambios productivos —particularmente en uso de suelo por provincia y región de Chile— y en la comercialización internacional de cultivos agrícolas. Mientras la superficie agrícola se ha mantenido relativamente estable en el país, entre 1955 y 2017 el área cultivada con cereales se contrajo casi a la mitad y la superficie de frutales creció casi cuatro veces. La principal categoría de productos agrícolas exportada por el país son las frutas y sus derivados. En las importaciones destacan los cereales, los productos de animales y las oleaginosas. Los principales destinos de las exportaciones son América del Norte, Europa y Asia Oriental, mientras América del Sur destaca como el principal origen de las importaciones. En la actualidad Chile importa casi un 50 % de los cereales y legumbres que se consumen en el país, lo cual constituye una eventual vulnerabilidad ante perturbaciones en los mercados internacionales de alimentos. La crisis del COVID-19 se perfila como un gran desafío económico y alimentario; si bien los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en Chile, al igual que en la mayor parte de Sudamérica, han progresado favorablemente en las últimas décadas al disminuir las tasas de hambre, las repercusiones sociales y económicas de la pandemia ponen en jaque estos avances.

Climate change is expected to change weather patterns in Chile significantly. Preserving the taxonomic and genetic diversity of crop wild relatives (CWR) is critical to ensure the availability of crops for future human food. However, many CWR are threatened in their natural habitats and underrepresented in gene banks. This research aimed to analyze the current and future climatic suitability under climate change of Chilean endemic CWR, the role of protected areas in their conservation, and possible conflicts of land use with agricultural production. The climatic suitability of 30 species was modeled with present and future bioclimatic variables using a species distribution modeling approach. The climatically suitable areas of all endemic CWR species analyzed are projected to change; 26 increased their suitable areas in the future and four decreased (Ribes integrifoliumPhil.,Dioscorea fastigiataGay,Solanum chilense(Dunal) Reiche,Lupinus oreophilusPhil.). Specific conflict with agricultural land use is projected to occur between Valparaiso and Biobio regions, where zones not in protected areas with more than 15 CWR species intersect with those that will be more suitable to produce food crops. Careful and informed planning is required to protect the future distribution of endemic CWR in Chile, especially for species whose climatically suitable area decreases. This effort should comprise a coordinated approach that includes both in situ and ex situ conservation strategies to preserve genetic diversity.

Non-Technical Summary.: Avocados are a widely consumed fruit and are part of many Latin American cuisines and plant-based diets globally. However, producing avocados is water-intensive, and plantations can cause soil erosion and water stress. In Chile, avocados are produced in semiarid zones and require irrigation. They are widely consumed locally but are increasingly exported to meet growing global demand. This causes significant local conflicts over water, especially because of the system of private water rights in Chile. There are many gaps in understanding the complex and interconnected system of avocado production and international markets, especially its impacts on local communities and biodiversity. Technical Summary.: The popularity of avocados has increased globally in alternative diets, alongside its integral role in Latin American cuisine. In Chile, avocados are grown extensively and intensively in orchards in the dry and Mediterranean climate of Central Chile. Avocado is a water-demanding crop and the severe water crisis in Chile has called attention to the conflicts caused by its water use. As most of the pressure to produce avocado comes from international demand but results in impacts on native ecosystems and local communities, avocado production in Chile is an example of a telecoupled system. Here, we characterize avocado production as a telecoupled social–ecological system in order to identify gaps in knowledge, based on a review of key studies. Research priorities include how to improve water-use efficiency, especially in the context of climate change; the impacts on biodiversity; and the socioeconomic dynamics between local communities, trade, and governance. The analysis is constrained by limited access to data and few interdisciplinary studies on the matter. To reduce the impacts of avocado production and increase its sustainability, there is an urgent need to amplify the interdisciplinary research that emphasizes the interconnections between the social and ecological components in avocado production in Chile. Social Media Summary.: Global avocado demand fuels local conflicts in Chile due to water stress and social–ecological pressures on communities.

Purpose: This study evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of electric vehicle adoption in Chile, examining how different policy scenarios could influence battery electric vehicle market penetration, energy demand, emissions and consumer costs through 2050. The research addresses the critical need to understand the viability of electromobility in an emerging market with unique characteristics, including abundant lithium resources and a renewable-dominated energy matrix. Design/methodology/approach: Three scenarios (sustainable, conservative and non-sustainable) for 2025–2050 were developed using machine learning models (Extreme Gradient Boosting regression and ExtraTrees) and international subsidy frameworks adapted to Chilean conditions, with Gross Domestic Product-adjusted factors. The methodology integrates vehicle demand projections, energy consumption calculations accounting for Chile's cold climate heating requirements, emissions analysis considering the national energy mix and lithium extraction impacts, and cost assessments for consumers. Findings: Aggressive policy intervention (25% purchase subsidies and expanded charging infrastructure) could achieve 100% battery electric vehicle sales by 2035, reducing transportation carbon dioxide emissions by 28%. Chile's renewable-dominated grid can support full electrification with only 4% of national generation capacity. Despite a 25% energy penalty from heating in cold climates, conventional vehicles produce 184% higher emissions than battery electric vehicles and annual costs are 18% lower under supportive policies. Originality/value: This represents the first systemic scenario-based electric vehicle adoption analysis specifically adapted to Chilean conditions, quantifying the impact of cold climate on electric vehicle efficiency and developing an integrated modelling approach for policy impact assessment in emerging markets with renewable energy advantages.