Aims : The potential difference in the impacts of lifestyle factors (LFs) on progression from healthy to first cardiometabolic disease (FCMD), subsequently to cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM), and further to death is unclear.Methods and results : We used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank of 461 047 adults aged 30–79 free of heart disease, stroke, and diabetes at baseline. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was defined as the coexistence of two or three CMDs, including ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We used multi-state model to analyse the impacts of high-risk LFs (current smoking or quitting because of illness, current excessive alcohol drinking or quitting, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy body shape) on the progression of CMD. During a median follow-up of 11.2 years, 87 687 participants developed at least one CMD, 14 164 developed CMM, and 17 541 died afterwards. Five high-risk LFs played crucial but different roles in all transitions from healthy to FCMD, to CMM, and then to death. The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) per one-factor increase were 1.20 (1.19, 1.21) and 1.14 (1.11, 1.16) for transitions from healthy to FCMD, and from FCMD to CMM, and 1.21 (1.19, 1.23), 1.12 (1.10, 1.15), and 1.10 (1.06, 1.15) for mortality risk from healthy, FCMD, and CMM, respectively. When we further divided FCMDs into IHD, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, and T2D, we found that LFs played different roles in disease-specific transitions even within the same transition stage.Conclusion : Assuming causality exists, our findings emphasize the significance of integrating comprehensive lifestyle interventions into both health management and CMD management.

The prevalence of diabetes is increasing rapidly in China. However, evidence is limited about its effects on chronic liver diseases and liver cancer. We examined the associations of diabetes with chronic liver diseases and liver cancer and of random plasma glucose (RPG) with these liver diseases among participants without diabetes in Chinese adults and the possible interaction by hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited 512,891 adults. During 10 years of follow‐up, 2,568 liver cancer, 2,082 cirrhosis, 1,298 hospitalized nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and 244 hospitalized alcoholic liver disease (ALD) cases were recorded among 503,993 participants without prior history of cancer or chronic liver diseases at baseline. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for each disease by diabetes status (previously diagnosed or screen‐detected) and, among those without previously diagnosed diabetes, by levels of RPG. Overall 5.8% of participants had diabetes at baseline. Compared to those without diabetes, individuals with diabetes had adjusted HRs of 1.49 (95% confidence interval 1.30‐1.70) for liver cancer, 1.81 (1.57‐2.09) for cirrhosis, 1.76 (1.47‐2.16) for NAFLD, and 2.24 (1.42‐3.54) for ALD. The excess risks decreased but remained elevated in those with longer duration. Among those without previously diagnosed diabetes, RPG was positively associated with liver diseases, with adjusted HRs per 1 mmol/L higher RPG of 1.04 (1.03‐1.06) for liver cancer, 1.07 (1.05‐1.09) for cirrhosis, 1.07 (1.05‐1.10) for NAFLD, and 1.10 (1.05‐1.15) for ALD. These associations did not differ by HBV infection. Conclusion: In Chinese adults, diabetes and higher blood glucose levels among those without known diabetes are associated with higher risks of liver cancer and major chronic liver diseases.

Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer (PC) in Western populations. Uncertainty remains, however, about the relevance of plasma glucose for PC among people without diabetes and about the associations of diabetes and high blood glucose with PC in China where the increase in diabetes prevalence has been very recent. The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study recruited 512,000 adults aged 30‐79 years from 10 diverse areas of China during 2004‐2008, recording 595 PC cases during 8 years of follow‐up. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for PC associated with diabetes (previously diagnosed or screen‐detected) and, among those without previously diagnosed diabetes, with levels of random plasma glucose (RPG). These were further meta‐analysed with 22 published prospective studies. Overall 5.8% of CKB participants had diabetes at baseline. Diabetes was associated with almost twofold increased risk of PC (adjusted HR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.48‐2.37), with excess risk higher in those with longer duration since diagnosis (p for trend = 0.01). Among those without previously diagnosed diabetes, each 1 mmol/L higher usual RPG was associated with a HR of 1.12 (1.04‐1.21). In meta‐analysis of CKB and 22 other studies, previously diagnosed diabetes was associated with a 52% excess risk (1.52, 1.43‐1.63). Among those without diabetes, each 1 mmol/L higher blood glucose was associated with a 15% (1.15, 1.09‐1.21) excess risk. In Chinese and non‐Chinese populations, diabetes and higher blood glucose levels among those without diabetes are associated with an increased risk of PC.

Evidence from epidemiological studies remains inconsistent or limited about the associations of tea consumption with incident diabetes and risk of diabetic complications and death among patients with diabetes. We aimed to investigate the associations of tea consumption with long-term risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) and risks of diabetic complications and death among patients with diabetes. This study included 482,425 diabetes-free participants and 30,300 patients with diabetes aged 30–79 y at study enrollment from the China Kadoorie Biobank. Tea consumption information was collected at baseline by interviewer-administered questionnaires. Incidences of diabetes, diabetic complications, and death were identified by linkages to the National Health Insurance system, disease registries, and death registries. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs. The mean ± SD age of participants free of diabetes was 51.2 ± 10.5 y and 41% were male. The mean ± SD age of patients with diabetes was 58.2 ± 9.6 y and 39% were male. Of all daily tea consumers, 85.8% preferred green tea. In the diabetes-free population, 17,434 participants developed incident T2D during 11.1 y of follow-up. Compared with participants who never consumed tea in the past year, the HR (95% CI) of T2D for daily consumers was 0.92 (0.88, 0.97). In patients with diabetes, we identified 6572 deaths, 12,677 diabetic macrovascular cases, and 2441 diabetic microvascular cases during follow-up. Compared with patients who never consumed tea in the past year, the HRs (95% CIs) of all-cause mortality and risk of microvascular complications for daily consumers were 0.90 (0.83, 0.97) and 0.88 (0.78, 1.00), respectively. Tea consumption was not associated with risk of macrovascular complications among patients with diabetes. With regard to tea consumed, the inverse associations between daily tea consumption and risks of T2D and all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes were only observed among daily green tea drinkers. In Chinese adults, daily green tea consumption was associated with a lower risk of incident T2D and a lower risk of all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes, but the associations for other types of tea were less clear. In addition, daily tea consumption was associated with a lower risk of diabetic microvascular complications, but not macrovascular complications.

Little prospective evidence exists about risk factors and prognosis of acute pancreatitis in China. We examined the associations of certain metabolic and lifestyle factors with risk of acute pancreatitis in Chinese adults. The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recruited 512,891 adults aged 30 to 79 years from 5 urban and 5 rural areas between 25 June 2004 and 15 July 2008. During 9.2 years of follow-up (to 1 January 2015), 1,079 cases of acute pancreatitis were recorded. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for acute pancreatitis associated with various metabolic and lifestyle factors among all or male (for smoking and alcohol drinking) participants. Overall, the mean waist circumference (WC) was 82.1 cm (SD 9.8) cm in men and 79.0 cm (SD 9.5) cm in women, 6% had diabetes, and 6% had gallbladder disease at baseline. WC was positively associated with risk of acute pancreatitis, with an adjusted HR of 1.35 (95% CI 1.27–1.43; p < 0.001) per 1-SD-higher WC. Individuals with diabetes or gallbladder disease had HRs of 1.34 (1.07–1.69; p = 0.01) and 2.42 (2.03–2.88; p < 0.001), respectively. Physical activity was inversely associated with risk of acute pancreatitis, with each 4 metabolic equivalent of task (MET) hours per day (MET-h/day) higher physical activity associated with an adjusted HR of 0.95 (0.91–0.99; p = 0.03). Compared with those without any metabolic risk factors (i.e., obesity, diabetes, gallbladder disease, and physical inactivity), the HRs of acute pancreatitis for those with 1, 2, or ≥3 risk factors were 1.61 (1.47–1.76), 2.36 (2.01–2.78), and 3.41 (2.46–4.72), respectively (p < 0.001). Among men, heavy alcohol drinkers (≥420 g/week) had an HR of 1.52 (1.11–2.09; p = 0.04, compared with abstainers), and current regular smokers had an HR of 1.45 (1.28–1.64; p = 0.02, compared with never smokers). Following a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis, there were higher risks of pancreatic cancer (HR = 8.26 [3.42–19.98]; p < 0.001; 13 pancreatic cancer cases) and death (1.53 [1.17–2.01]; p = 0.002; 89 deaths). Other diseases of the pancreas had similar risk factor profiles and prognosis to acute pancreatitis. The main study limitations are ascertainment of pancreatitis using hospital records and residual confounding. In this relatively lean Chinese population, several modifiable metabolic and lifestyle factors were associated with higher risks of acute pancreatitis, and individuals with acute pancreatitis had higher risks of pancreatic cancer and death.

Background: Adiposity and weight change among patients with breast cancer are associated with mortality, but there is limited evidence on the associations with distant recurrence or other causes of death or on central adiposity. Moreover, the relationship with breast cancer subtypes and by menopause status is unclear. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies of breast cancer patients investigating the associations of general and central adiposity (body mass index [BMI] and waist circumference [WC], respectively), before and after diagnosis, and weight change, with all-cause mortality, breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM), and recurrence. Results: 173 studies (519,544 patients, 60,249 deaths overall, and 25,751 breast cancer deaths) were included. For BMI < 1 year post diagnosis, compared with normal weight women, the summary relative risk (RR) for obese women was 1.21 (1.15–1.27) for all-cause mortality, 1.22 (1.13–1.32) for BCSM, 1.12 (1.06–1.18) for recurrence, and 1.19 (1.11–1.28) for distant recurrence. Obesity was associated with all-cause mortality and BCSM in patients with ER+ or HER2+ tumors, whereas no clear association was observed in patients with triple-negative tumors. Similar associations were observed by menopausal status. Stronger associations were observed in East Asians than Europeans. Central adiposity was associated with all-cause mortality, while large weight gain was associated with all-cause mortality, BCSM, and recurrence. Conclusion: Higher adiposity is associated with all-cause mortality, BCSM, recurrence, and distant recurrence in breast cancer patients, with similar associations by menopausal status and some evidence of heterogeneity by subtypes. Weight gain is also associated with recurrence and survival among breast cancer patients.