The process of allocating financial resources is extremely complex—both because the selection of investments depends on multiple, and interrelated, variables, and constraints that limit the eligibility domain of the solutions, and because the feasibility of projects is influenced by risk factors. In this sense, it is essential to develop economic evaluations on a probabilistic basis. Nevertheless, for the civil engineering sector, the literature emphasizes the centrality of risk management, in order to establish interventions for risk mitigation. On the other hand, few methodologies are available to systematically compare ante and post mitigation design risk, along with the verification of the economic convenience of these actions. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate how these limits can be at least partially overcome by integrating, in the traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis schemes, the As Low as Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) logic. According to it, the risk is tolerable only if it is impossible to reduce it further or if the costs to mitigate it are disproportionate to the benefits obtainable. The research outlines the phases of an innovative protocol for managing investment risks. On the basis of a case study dealing with a project for the recovery and transformation of an ancient medieval village into a widespread-hotel, the novelty of the model consists of the characterization of acceptability and tolerability thresholds of the investment risk, as well as its ability to guarantee the triangular balance between risks, costs and benefits deriving from mitigation options.

The impact of sectoral trade channels (agriculture, manufacturing, and services) on economic growth in four South Asian economies (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) over the period 1993‒2023 is examined in this study. Trade is disaggregated into sectoral components, unlike in conventional analyses where it is treated as a single aggregated measure, to capture heterogeneous effects on growth. Panel data estimation techniques, including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed Effects (FE), and Random Effects (RE), are employed, and potential endogeneity is addressed through two-stage least squares (2SLS). Key macroeconomic determinants, such as exchange rates, gross capital formation, and labor force participation, are also incorporated. It is found that agricultural and manufacturing trade exert positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth, whereas services trade is negatively associated with growth, a result attributed to structural inefficiencies, weak export orientation, and limited value addition in much of the services sector. Diverse growth drivers are revealed at the country level: manufacturing-led growth in Bangladesh and India, agriculture-driven growth in Sri Lanka, and capital formation-led growth in Pakistan. Economic expansion is consistently supported by exchange rate stability and gross capital formation, while labor force participation is shown to have mixed effects across countries. The results highlight the importance of country-specific, sector-focused trade and industrial policies through which high-performing sectors can be reinforced and lagging ones modernized, thereby promoting sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth. By disaggregating trade channels, addressing endogeneity, and integrating macroeconomic determinants, robust empirical evidence is provided for policymakers, development agencies, and trade strategists seeking to enhance sectoral productivity, competitiveness, and long-term economic development in South Asia.

This paper constructs and optimizes, for the first time, the decomposition framework of inter-city outflow and export from the urban scale and analyzes the basic characteristics of China’s urban manufacturing industry’s participation in the global value chain and national value chain from the perspective of temporal and spatial evolution. The results show that the participation index of the manufacturing industry in coastal cities is higher than that in inland cities, and inland cities are more inclined to rely on the domestic value chain to obtain superior resources for the development of the manufacturing industry. The indicators of the manufacturing industry in the cities of the province show excellent performance, while the indicators of the peripheral cities show poor characteristics. At the same time, the length index of the global value chain of the coastal city manufacturing industry is also consistent with the actual development of the urban manufacturing industry in China. The performances of China’s urban manufacturing industry in participating in the global value chain and the domestic value chain are different. Under the background of the new development pattern, the effective docking of the double chains should be realized to achieve high-quality development in the manufacturing industry.