Idiopathic REM sleep behaviour disorder (iRBD) is a powerful early sign of Parkinson’s disease, dementia with Lewy bodies, and multiple system atrophy. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to directly observe prodromal neurodegenerative states, and potentially intervene with neuroprotective therapy. For future neuroprotective trials, it is essential to accurately estimate phenoconversion rate and identify potential predictors of phenoconversion. This study assessed the neurodegenerative disease risk and predictors of neurodegeneration in a large multicentre cohort of iRBD. We combined prospective follow-up data from 24 centres of the International RBD Study Group. At baseline, patients with polysomnographically-confirmed iRBD without parkinsonism or dementia underwent sleep, motor, cognitive, autonomic and special sensory testing. Patients were then prospectively followed, during which risk of dementia and parkinsonsim were assessed. The risk of dementia and parkinsonism was estimated with Kaplan-Meier analysis. Predictors of phenoconversion were assessed with Cox proportional hazards analysis, adjusting for age, sex, and centre. Sample size estimates for disease-modifying trials were calculated using a time-to-event analysis. Overall, 1280 patients were recruited. The average age was 66.3 ± 8.4 and 82.5% were male. Average follow-up was 4.6 years (range = 1–19 years). The overall conversion rate from iRBD to an overt neurodegenerative syndrome was 6.3% per year, with 73.5% converting after 12-year follow-up. The rate of phenoconversion was significantly increased with abnormal quantitative motor testing [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.16], objective motor examination (HR = 3.03), olfactory deficit (HR = 2.62), mild cognitive impairment (HR = 1.91–2.37), erectile dysfunction (HR = 2.13), motor symptoms (HR = 2.11), an abnormal DAT scan (HR = 1.98), colour vision abnormalities (HR = 1.69), constipation (HR = 1.67), REM atonia loss (HR = 1.54), and age (HR = 1.54). There was no significant predictive value of sex, daytime somnolence, insomnia, restless legs syndrome, sleep apnoea, urinary dysfunction, orthostatic symptoms, depression, anxiety, or hyperechogenicity on substantia nigra ultrasound. Among predictive markers, only cognitive variables were different at baseline between those converting to primary dementia versus parkinsonism. Sample size estimates for definitive neuroprotective trials ranged from 142 to 366 patients per arm. This large multicentre study documents the high phenoconversion rate from iRBD to an overt neurodegenerative syndrome. Our findings provide estimates of the relative predictive value of prodromal markers, which can be used to stratify patients for neuroprotective trials.

The neurodegenerative synucleinopathies, including Parkinson’s disease and dementia with Lewy bodies, are characterized by a typically lengthy prodromal period of progressive subclinical motor and non-motor manifestations. Among these, idiopathic REM sleep behaviour disorder is a powerful early predictor of eventual phenoconversion, and therefore represents a critical opportunity to intervene with neuroprotective therapy. To inform the design of randomized trials, it is essential to study the natural progression of clinical markers during the prodromal stages of disease in order to establish optimal clinical end points. In this study, we combined prospective follow-up data from 28 centres of the International REM Sleep Behavior Disorder Study Group representing 12 countries. Polysomnogram-confirmed REM sleep behaviour disorder subjects were assessed for prodromal Parkinson’s disease using the Movement Disorder Society criteria and underwent periodic structured sleep, motor, cognitive, autonomic and olfactory testing. We used linear mixed-effect modelling to estimate annual rates of clinical marker progression stratified by disease subtype, including prodromal Parkinson’s disease and prodromal dementia with Lewy bodies. In addition, we calculated sample size requirements to demonstrate slowing of progression under different anticipated treatment effects. Overall, 1160 subjects were followed over an average of 3.3 ± 2.2 years. Among clinical variables assessed continuously, motor variables tended to progress faster and required the lowest sample sizes, ranging from 151 to 560 per group (at 50% drug efficacy and 2-year follow-up). By contrast, cognitive, olfactory and autonomic variables showed modest progression with higher variability, resulting in high sample sizes. The most efficient design was a time-to-event analysis using combined milestones of motor and cognitive decline, estimating 117 per group at 50% drug efficacy and 2-year trial duration. Finally, while phenoconverters showed overall greater progression than non-converters in motor, olfactory, cognitive and certain autonomic markers, the only robust difference in progression between Parkinson’s disease and dementia with Lewy bodies phenoconverters was in cognitive testing. This large multicentre study demonstrates the evolution of motor and non-motor manifestations in prodromal synucleinopathy. These findings provide optimized clinical end points and sample size estimates to inform future neuroprotective trials.

This is an international multicentre study aimed at evaluating the combined value of dopaminergic neuroimaging and clinical features in predicting future phenoconversion of idiopathic REM sleep behaviour (iRBD) subjects to overt synucleinopathy. Nine centres sent ¹²³I-FP-CIT-SPECT data of 344 iRBD patients and 256 controls for centralized analysis. ¹²³I-FP-CIT-SPECT images were semiquantified using DaTQUANT^TM, obtaining putamen and caudate specific to non-displaceable binding ratios (SBRs). The following clinical variables were also analysed: (i) Movement Disorder Society-sponsored revision of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale, motor section score; (ii) Mini-Mental State Examination score; (iii) constipation; and (iv) hyposmia. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to estimate conversion risk. Hazard ratios for each variable were calculated with Cox regression. A generalized logistic regression model was applied to identify the best combination of risk factors. Bayesian classifier was used to identify the baseline features predicting phenoconversion to parkinsonism or dementia. After quality check of the data, 263 iRBD patients (67.6 ± 7.3 years, 229 males) and 243 control subjects (67.2 ± 10.1 years, 110 males) were analysed. Fifty-two (20%) patients developed a synucleinopathy after average follow-up of 2 years. The best combination of risk factors was putamen dopaminergic dysfunction of the most affected hemisphere on imaging, defined as the lower value between either putamina (P < 0.000001), constipation, (P < 0.000001) and age over 70 years (P = 0.0002). Combined features obtained from the generalized logistic regression achieved a hazard ratio of 5.71 (95% confidence interval 2.85–11.43). Bayesian classifier suggested that patients with higher Mini-Mental State Examination score and lower caudate SBR asymmetry were more likely to develop parkinsonism, while patients with the opposite pattern were more likely to develop dementia. This study shows that iRBD patients older than 70 with constipation and reduced nigro-putaminal dopaminergic function are at high risk of short-term phenoconversion to an overt synucleinopathy, providing an effective stratification approach for future neuroprotective trials. Moreover, we provide cut-off values for the significant predictors of phenoconversion to be used in single subjects.

Rationale: Idiopathic REM sleep behavior disorder (iRBD) is considered a prodromal stage of Parkinson’s disease (PD) and other Lewy-body disorders. Spatial covariance analysis of [¹⁸F]-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography (¹⁸F-FDG-PET) data has disclosed a specific brain pattern of altered glucose metabolism in PD. In this study, we identify the metabolic pattern underlying iRBD and compare it to the known PD pattern. To understand the relevance of the iRBD pattern to disease progression, we study the expression of the iRBD pattern in de novo PD patients. Methods: The iRBD-related pattern was identified in ¹⁸F-FDG-PET scans of 21 patients with polysomnographically-confirmed iRBD and 19 controls using spatial covariance analysis. Expression of the iRBD-related pattern was subsequently computed in ¹⁸F-FDG-PET scans of 44 controls and 38 de novo, treatment-naïve PD patients. Of these 38 PD patients, 24 had probable RBD according to the Mayo Sleep Questionnaire. Neuropsychological evaluation showed mild cognitive impairment in 20 PD patients (PD-MCI), of whom sixteen also had concomitant RBD and roughly half (11/20) had bilateral motor symptoms. Results: The iRBD-related pattern was characterized by relative hypermetabolism in cerebellum, brainstem, thalamus, sensorimotor cortex, and hippocampus, and by relative hypometabolism in middle cingulate, temporal, occipital and parietal cortices. This topography partially overlapped with the PD-related pattern (PDRP). The iRBD-related pattern was significantly expressed in PD patients compared to controls (P<0.0001). iRBD-related pattern expression was not significantly different between PD patients with and without probable RBD, or between PD patients with unilateral or bilateral parkinsonism. iRBD-related pattern expression was higher in PD-MCI patients, compared to PD patients with preserved cognition (P = 0.001). Subject scores on the iRBD-related pattern were highly correlated to subject scores on the PDRP (r=0.94, P<0.0001). Conclusion: In conclusion, our results show that the iRBDRP is an early manifestation of the PDRP. Expression of both PDRP and iRBDRP was higher in patients with a more severe form of PD (PD-MCI), which indicates that expression of the two patterns increases with disease severity.