The quantitative assessment of uncertainty and sampling quality is essential in molecular simulation. Many systems of interest are highly complex, often at the edge of current computational capabilities. Modelers must therefore analyze and communicate statistical uncertainties so that "consumers'' of simulated data understand its significance and limitations. This article covers key analyses appropriate for trajectory data generated by conventional simulation methods such as molecular dynamics and (single Markov chain) Monte Carlo. It also provides guidance for analyzing some "enhanced" sampling approaches. We do not discuss systematic errors arising, e.g., from inaccuracy in the chosen model or force field.

Quantitative and robust serology assays are critical measurements underpinning global COVID-19 response to diagnostic, surveillance, and vaccine development. Here, we report a proof-of-concept approach for the development of quantitative, multiplexed flow cytometry-based serological and neutralization assays. The serology assays test the IgG and IgM against both the full-length spike antigens and the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike antigen. Benchmarking against an RBD-specific SARS-CoV IgG reference standard, the anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD antibody titer was quantified in the range of 37.6 µg/mL to 31.0 ng/mL. The quantitative assays are highly specific with no correlative cross-reactivity with the spike proteins of MERS, SARS1, OC43 and HKU1 viruses. We further demonstrated good correlation between anti-RBD antibody titers and neutralizing antibody titers. The suite of serology and neutralization assays help to improve measurement confidence and are complementary and foundational for clinical and epidemiologic studies.

Generating and calibrating forces that are transferable across a range of state-points remains a challenging task in coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics. In this work, we present a coarse-graining workflow, inspired by ideas from uncertainty quantification and numerical analysis, to address this problem. The key idea behind our approach is to introduce a Bayesian correction algorithm that uses functional derivatives of CG simulations to rapidly and inexpensively recalibrate initial estimates f₀ of forces anchored by standard methods such as force-matching. Taking density-temperature relationships as a running example, we demonstrate that this algorithm, in concert with various interpolation schemes, can be used to efficiently compute physically reasonable force curves on a fine grid of state-points. Importantly, we show that our workflow is robust to several choices available to the modeler, including the interpolation schemes and tools used to construct f₀. In a related vein, we also demonstrate that our approach can speed up coarse-graining by reducing the number of atomistic simulations needed as inputs to standard methods for generating CG forces.

Structural DNA nanotechnology, as exemplified by DNA origami, has enabled the design and construction of molecularly-precise objects for a myriad of applications. However, limitations in imaging, and other characterization approaches, make a quantitative understanding of the folding process challenging. Such an understanding is necessary to determine the origins of structural defects, which constrain the practical use of these nanostructures. Here, we combine careful fluorescent reporter design with a novel affine transformation technique that, together, permit the rigorous measurement of folding thermodynamics. This method removes sources of systematic uncertainty and resolves problems with typical background-correction schemes. This in turn allows us to examine entropic corrections associated with folding and potential secondary and tertiary structure of the scaffold. Our approach also highlights the importance of heat-capacity changes during DNA melting. In addition to yielding insight into DNA origami folding, it is well-suited to probing fundamental processes in related self-assembling systems.

Despite more than 40 years of research in condensed-matter physics, state-of-the-art approaches for simulating the radial distribution function (RDF) g(r) still rely on binning pair-separations into a histogram. Such methods suffer from undesirable properties, including subjectivity, high uncertainty, and slow rates of convergence. Moreover, such problems go undetected by the metrics often used to assess RDFs. To address these issues, we propose (I) a spectral Monte Carlo (SMC) quadrature method that yields g(r) as an analytical series expansion and (II) a Sobolev norm that assesses the quality of RDFs by quantifying their fluctuations. Using the latter, we show that, relative to histogram-based approaches, SMC reduces by orders of magnitude both the noise in g(r) and the number of pair separations needed for acceptable convergence. Moreover, SMC reduces subjectivity and yields simple, differentiable formulas for the RDF, which are useful for tasks such as coarse-grained force-field calibration via iterative Boltzmann inversion.

In diagnostic testing, establishing an indeterminate class is an effective way to identify samples that cannot be accurately classified. However, such approaches also make testing less efficient and must be balanced against overall assay performance. We address this problem by reformulating data classification in terms of a constrained optimization problem that (i) minimizes the probability of labeling samples as indeterminate while (ii) ensuring that the remaining ones are classified with an average target accuracy X. We show that the solution to this problem is expressed in terms of a bathtub-type principle that holds out those samples with the lowest local accuracy up to an X-dependent threshold. To illustrate the usefulness of this analysis, we apply it to a multiplex, saliva-based SARS-CoV-2 antibody assay and demonstrate up to a 30 % reduction in the number of indeterminate samples relative to more traditional approaches.