Dactylorhiza hatagirea is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71–81% reduction the number of suitable locations for D. hatagirea by 2050 and 95–98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65–85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future.

Harvesting of orchids for medicine and salep production is a traditional practice, and increasing market demand is spurring illegal harvest. Ethno‐ecological studies in combination with the effect of anthropogenic disturbance are lacking for orchids. We compared population density and structure, and tuber biomass of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soó for three years in two sites: Manang, where harvesting of medicinal plants was locally regulated (protected), and Darchula, where harvesting was locally unregulated (unprotected). Six populations were studied along an elevation gradient by establishing 144 temporary plots (3 × 3 m²) from 3,400 to 4,600 m elevations. Mean density of D. hatagirea was significantly higher in the locally protected (1.31 ± 0.17 plants/m²) than in the unprotected (0.72 ± 0.06 plants/m²) site. The protected site showed stable population density with high reproductive fitness and tuber biomass over the three‐year period. A significant negative effect (p < .1) of relative radiation index (RRI) on the density of the adult vegetative stage and a positive effect of herb cover on juvenile and adult vegetative stages were found using mixed zero‐inflated Poisson (mixed ZIP) models. The densities of different life stages were highly sensitive to harvesting and livestock grazing. Significant interactions between site and harvesting and grazing indicated particularly strong negative effects of these disturbances on densities of juvenile and adult reproductive stages in the unprotected site. Semi‐structured interviews were conducted with informants (n = 186) in the villages and at the ecological survey sites. Our interview results showed that at the protected site people are aware of the conservation status and maintain sustainable populations, whereas the opposite was the case at the unprotected site where the populations are threatened. Sustainability of D. hatagirea populations, therefore, largely depends on controlling illegal and premature harvesting and unregulated livestock grazing, thus indicating the need for permanent monitoring of the species.

Increasing cross-border trade of medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) has put heavy pressure on a considerable number of species in the Himalayas. One of the threatened species in Nepal is Aconitum spicatum. Unfortunately for this species and for many others, our knowledge on population ecology and performance across the distribution range is insufficient, hindering the formulation of species-specific management plans. We therefore studied density and population structure of A. spicatum and assessed variation in its life history traits among three populations (subalpine, lower alpine and alpine) along an elevation gradient (3,000–4,200 m a.s.l.) in Annapurna Conservation Area, north-central Nepal. The results show that human disturbances and topographic factors contributed to the variation in density and life history traits. The overall density ranged between 0.56 ± 0.09 (Mean ± SE) and 2.48 ± 0.24 plants/m² with highest mean density in the lower alpine and lowest in the subalpine population. The subalpine population was also characterized by lower investment in reproductive structures with lowest seed mass and low seed viability and fecundity. Among the environmental variables tested, harvesting, animal droppings and fire appeared to be the most important factors affecting density of different life stages of A. spicatum. The prevailing harvesting pattern is destructive as it involves uprooting of the whole plant and this appears to be a main reason for low recruitment and reduced density of the subalpine population. The level of disturbance decreased with increasing elevation. In terms of reproductive effort, the alpine population performed best. Our results indicate that the viability of A. spicatum populations depends on controlling over-harvesting and pre-mature harvesting of tubers and protecting younger life stages from grazing, trampling and fire. We therefore recommend that when formulating management guidelines, measures aiming to mitigate such anthropogenic disturbances should be considered.