The changes of both climate and land use/cover have some impacts on water resources. In the Taoer River basin, these changes have directly influenced the land use pattern adjustment, wetland protection, connections between rivers and reservoirs, local social and economic development, and so forth. Therefore, studying the impacts of climate and land use/cover changes is of great practical significance. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is employed in this study. With historical measured runoff data and remote sensing maps of annual land use classifications, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the runoff of the Taoer River. Based on the land use/cover classifications of 1990, 2000, and 2010, we analyzed the land use/cover change over the last 30 years and the contribution coefficient of farmland, woodland, grassland, and other major land use types to the runoff. This study can provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and the adjustment of land use structure for decision makers.

Reservoirs play an important role in the urban water supply, yet reservoirs receive an influx of large amounts of pollutants from the upper watershed during flood seasons, causing a decline in water quality and threatening the water supply. Identifying major pollution sources and assessing water quality risks are important for the environmental protection of reservoirs. In this paper, the principal component/factor analysis-multiple linear regression (PCA/FA-MLR) model and Bayesian networks (BNs) are integrated to identify water pollution sources and assess the water quality risk in different precipitation conditions, which provides an effective framework for water quality management during flood seasons. The deterioration of the water quality of rivers in the flood season is found to be the main reason for the deterioration in the reservoir water quality. The nonpoint source pollution is the major pollution source of the reservoir, which contributes 53.20%, 48.41%, 72.69%, and 68.06% of the total nitrogen (TN), phosphorus (TP), fecal coliforms (F.coli), and turbidity (TUB), respectively. The risk of the water quality parameters exceeding the surface water standard under different hydrological conditions is assessed. The results show that the probability of the exceedance rate of TN, TP, and F.coli increases from 91.13%, 3.40%, and 3.34%, to 95.75%, 25.77%, and 12.76% as the monthly rainfall increases from ≤68.25 mm to >190.18 mm. The risk to the water quality of the Biliuhe River reservoir is found to increase with the rising rainfall intensity, the water quality risk at the inlet during the flood season is found to be much greater than that at the dam site, and the increasing trend of TP and turbidity is greater than that of TN and F.coli. The risk of five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅) does not increase with increasing precipitation, indicating that it is less affected by nonpoint source pollution. The results of this study can provide a research basis for water environment management during flood seasons.

Pollution from nonpoint-source (NPS) nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the main causes of eutrophication in lotic, lentic and coastal systems. The climate of cold regions might play an important role in disturbing environmental behavior of NPS N and P, influencing simulation of watershed scale hydrologic and nonpoint-source pollution models. The losses of NPS N and P increase in regions of cold climate. In cold seasons, accumulations of N and P are accelerated in soil with increasing fine root and aboveground biomass mortality, decreasing plant nutrient uptake, as well as freezing soil. N and P transformation is disturbed by soil frost and snow. Moreover, factors such as physical disruption of soil aggregates, pollutant accumulation in snowpack, and snow melting can all increase the NPS N and P losses to the waterbody. Therefore, NPS N and P in first flush are more serious in cold climate. All these effects, especially frozen soil and snowpack, make great challenges to watershed scale hydrologic and nonpoint-source pollution models simulation in cold climate. Model improvements of snowmelt runoff, nutrient losses in frozen soil, as well as N and P behavior have been initiated and will be continued to evaluate in terms of their performances and suitability with different scale, hydrologic and geologic conditions in the future.