The characterization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral kinetics in hospitalized patients and its association with mortality is unknown. We analyzed death and nasopharyngeal viral kinetics in 655 hospitalized patients from the prospective French COVID cohort. The model predicted a median peak viral load that coincided with symptom onset. Patients with age ≥65 y had a smaller loss rate of infected cells, leading to a delayed median time to viral clearance occurring 16 d after symptom onset as compared to 13 d in younger patients (P < 10⁻⁴). In multivariate analysis, the risk factors associated with mortality were age ≥65 y, male gender, and presence of chronic pulmonary disease (hazard ratio [HR] > 2.0). Using a joint model, viral dynamics after hospital admission was an independent predictor of mortality (HR = 1.31, P < 10⁻³). Finally, we used our model to simulate the effects of effective pharmacological interventions on time to viral clearance and mortality. A treatment able to reduce viral production by 90% upon hospital admission would shorten the time to viral clearance by 2.0 and 2.9 d in patients of age <65 y and ≥65 y, respectively. Assuming that the association between viral dynamics and mortality would remain similar to that observed in our population, this could translate into a reduction of mortality from 19 to 14% in patients of age ≥65 y with risk factors. Our results show that viral dynamics is associated with mortality in hospitalized patients. Strategies aiming to reduce viral load could have an effect on mortality rate in this population. Significance A detailed characterization of viral load kinetics and its association with disease evolution is key to understand the virus pathogenesis, identify high-risk patients, and design better treatment strategies. We here analyze the mortality and the virological information collected in 655 hospitalized patients, including 284 with longitudinal measurements, and we build a mathematical model of virus dynamics and survival. We predict that peak viral load occurs 1 d before symptom onset, on average, and that dynamics of decline after peak is slower in older patients. Viral load dynamics after hospital admission is an independent predictor of the risk of death, suggesting that prolonged viral shedding of high quantities of virus is associated with poor outcome in this population.

The antiviral efficacy of remdesivir in COVID-19 hospitalized patients remains controversial. To estimate the effect of remdesivir in blocking viral replication. We analysed nasopharyngeal normalized viral loads from 665 hospitalized patients included in the DisCoVeRy trial (NCT 04315948; EudraCT 2020-000936-23), randomized to either standard of care (SoC) or SoC + remdesivir. We used a mathematical model to reconstruct viral kinetic profiles and estimate the antiviral efficacy of remdesivir in blocking viral replication. Additional analyses were conducted stratified on time of treatment initiation (≤7 or >7 days since symptom onset) or viral load at randomization (< or ≥3.5 log₁₀ copies/10⁴ cells). In our model, remdesivir reduced viral production by infected cells by 2-fold on average (95% CI: 1.5–3.2-fold). Model-based simulations predict that remdesivir reduced time to viral clearance by 0.7 days compared with SoC, with large inter-individual variabilities (IQR: 0.0–1.3 days). Remdesivir had a larger impact in patients with high viral load at randomization, reducing viral production by 5-fold on average (95% CI: 2.8–25-fold) and the median time to viral clearance by 2.4 days (IQR: 0.9–4.5 days). Remdesivir halved viral production, leading to a median reduction of 0.7 days in the time to viral clearance compared with SoC. The efficacy was larger in patients with high viral load at randomization.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exemplified that rigorous evaluation in large animal models is key for translation from promising in vitro results to successful clinical implementation. Among the drugs that have been largely tested in clinical trials but failed so far to bring clear evidence of clinical efficacy is favipiravir, a nucleoside analogue with large spectrum activity against several RNA viruses in vitro and in small animal models. Here, we evaluate the antiviral activity of favipiravir against Zika or SARS-CoV-2 virus in cynomolgus macaques. In both models, high doses of favipiravir are initiated before infection and viral kinetics are evaluated during 7 to 15 days after infection. Favipiravir leads to a statistically significant reduction in plasma Zika viral load compared to untreated animals. However, favipiravir has no effects on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics, and 4 treated animals have to be euthanized due to rapid clinical deterioration, suggesting a potential role of favipiravir in disease worsening in SARS-CoV-2 infected animals. To summarize, favipiravir has an antiviral activity against Zika virus but not against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the cynomolgus macaque model. Our results support the clinical evaluation of favipiravir against Zika virus but they advocate against its use against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Lassa fever is an haemorrhagic fever caused by Lassa virus (LASV). There is no vaccine approved against LASV and the only recommended antiviral treatment relies on ribavirin, despite limited evidence of efficacy. Recently, the nucleotide analogue favipiravir showed a high antiviral efficacy, with 100% survival obtained in an otherwise fully lethal non-human primate (NHP) model of Lassa fever. However the mechanism of action of the drug is not known and the absence of pharmacokinetic data limits the translation of these results to the human setting. Here we aimed to better understand the antiviral effect of favipiravir by developping the first mathematical model recapitulating Lassa viral dynamics and treatment. We analyzed the viral dynamics in 24 NHPs left untreated or treated with ribavirin or favipiravir, and we put the results in perspective with those obtained with the same drugs in the context of Ebola infection. Our model estimates favipiravir EC₅₀ in vivo to 2.89 μg.mL^-1, which is much lower than what was found against Ebola virus. The main mechanism of action of favipiravir was to decrease virus infectivity, with an efficacy of 91% at the highest dose. Based on our knowledge acquired on the drug pharmacokinetics in humans, our model predicts that favipiravir doses larger than 1200 mg twice a day should have the capability to strongly reduce the production infectious virus and provide a milestone towards a future use in humans.

Although anti‐severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 antibody kinetics have been described in large populations of vaccinated individuals, we still poorly understand how they evolve during a natural infection and how this impacts viral clearance. For that purpose, we analyzed the kinetics of both viral load and neutralizing antibody levels in a prospective cohort of individuals during acute infection with alpha variant. Using a mathematical model, we show that the progressive increase in neutralizing antibodies leads to a shortening of the half‐life of both infected cells and infectious viral particles. We estimated that the neutralizing activity reached 90% of its maximal level within 11 days after symptom onset and could reduce the half‐life of both infected cells and circulating virus by a 6‐fold factor, thus playing a key role to achieve rapid viral clearance. Using this model, we conducted a simulation study to predict in a more general context the protection conferred by pre‐existing neutralization titers, due to either vaccination or prior infection. We predicted that a neutralizing activity, as measured by 50% effective dose > 10³, could reduce by 46% the risk of having viral load detectable by standard polymerase chain reaction assays and by 98% the risk of having viral load above the threshold of infectiousness. Our model shows that neutralizing activity could be used to define correlates of protection against infection and transmission.

To better understand plausible SARS-CoV-2 transmission through fomites, a physiological model was designed to analyze the decay rate of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. We focused on non-porous materials present in high-touch surfaces or used as containment barrier surfaces, namely glass, acrylic glass, photo-activated coated glass, stainless steel and aluminium. SARS-CoV-2 survival depended on the material considered, with half-lives on glass, photo-activated coated glass, stainless steel and aluminium equal to 6.9, 4.1, 3.5 and 2.3 h, respectively. This study highlights the potential utility of coatings in the fight against the current threat. In addition, it spotlights the need for standardizing assays to assess indirect transmission of COVID-19.