Artificial intelligence and machine learning are poised to influence nearly every aspect of the human condition, and cardiology is not an exception to this trend. This paper provides a guide for clinicians on relevant aspects of artificial intelligence and machine learning, reviews selected applications of these methods in cardiology to date, and identifies how cardiovascular medicine could incorporate artificial intelligence in the future. In particular, the paper first reviews predictive modeling concepts relevant to cardiology such as feature selection and frequent pitfalls such as improper dichotomization. Second, it discusses common algorithms used in supervised learning and reviews selected applications in cardiology and related disciplines. Third, it describes the advent of deep learning and related methods collectively called unsupervised learning, provides contextual examples both in general medicine and in cardiovascular medicine, and then explains how these methods could be applied to enable precision cardiology and improve patient outcomes.

Artificial intelligence (AI) broadly refers to analytical algorithms that iteratively learn from data, allowing computers to find hidden insights without being explicitly programmed where to look. These include a family of operations encompassing several terms like machine learning, cognitive learning, deep learning and reinforcement learning-based methods that can be used to integrate and interpret complex biomedical and healthcare data in scenarios where traditional statistical methods may not be able to perform. In this review article, we discuss the basics of machine learning algorithms and what potential data sources exist; evaluate the need for machine learning; and examine the potential limitations and challenges of implementing machine in the context of cardiovascular medicine. The most promising avenues for AI in medicine are the development of automated risk prediction algorithms which can be used to guide clinical care; use of unsupervised learning techniques to more precisely phenotype complex disease; and the implementation of reinforcement learning algorithms to intelligently augment healthcare providers. The utility of a machine learning-based predictive model will depend on factors including data heterogeneity, data depth, data breadth, nature of modelling task, choice of machine learning and feature selection algorithms, and orthogonal evidence. A critical understanding of the strength and limitations of various methods and tasks amenable to machine learning is vital. By leveraging the growing corpus of big data in medicine, we detail pathways by which machine learning may facilitate optimal development of patient-specific models for improving diagnoses, intervention and outcome in cardiovascular medicine.

Deep learning (DL) is a branch of machine learning (ML) showing increasing promise in medicine, to assist in data classification, novel disease phenotyping and complex decision making. Deep learning is a form of ML typically implemented via multi-layered neural networks. Deep learning has accelerated by recent advances in computer hardware and algorithms and is increasingly applied in e-commerce, finance, and voice and image recognition to learn and classify complex datasets. The current medical literature shows both strengths and limitations of DL. Strengths of DL include its ability to automate medical image interpretation, enhance clinical decision-making, identify novel phenotypes, and select better treatment pathways in complex diseases. Deep learning may be well-suited to cardiovascular medicine in which haemodynamic and electrophysiological indices are increasingly captured on a continuous basis by wearable devices as well as image segmentation in cardiac imaging. However, DL also has significant weaknesses including difficulties in interpreting its models (the ‘black-box’ criticism), its need for extensive adjudicated (‘labelled’) data in training, lack of standardization in design, lack of data-efficiency in training, limited applicability to clinical trials, and other factors. Thus, the optimal clinical application of DL requires careful formulation of solvable problems, selection of most appropriate DL algorithms and data, and balanced interpretation of results. This review synthesizes the current state of DL for cardiovascular clinicians and investigators, and provides technical context to appreciate the promise, pitfalls, near-term challenges, and opportunities for this exciting new area.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with substantial morbidity, especially when it goes undetected. If new-onset AF could be predicted, targeted screening could be used to find it early. We hypothesized that a deep neural network could predict new-onset AF from the resting 12-lead ECG and that this prediction may help identify those at risk of AF-related stroke. Methods: We used 1.6 M resting 12-lead digital ECG traces from 430 000 patients collected from 1984 to 2019. Deep neural networks were trained to predict new-onset AF (within 1 year) in patients without a history of AF. Performance was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and precision-recall curve. We performed an incidence-free survival analysis for a period of 30 years following the ECG stratified by model predictions. To simulate real-world deployment, we trained a separate model using all ECGs before 2010 and evaluated model performance on a test set of ECGs from 2010 through 2014 that were linked to our stroke registry. We identified the patients at risk for AF-related stroke among those predicted to be high risk for AF by the model at different prediction thresholds. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the precision-recall curve were 0.85 and 0.22, respectively, for predicting new-onset AF within 1 year of an ECG. The hazard ratio for the predicted high- versus low-risk groups over a 30-year span was 7.2 (95% CI, 6.9–7.6). In a simulated deployment scenario, the model predicted new-onset AF at 1 year with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 81%. The number needed to screen to find 1 new case of AF was 9. This model predicted patients at high risk for new-onset AF in 62% of all patients who experienced an AF-related stroke within 3 years of the index ECG. Conclusions: Deep learning can predict new-onset AF from the 12-lead ECG in patients with no previous history of AF. This prediction may help identify patients at risk for AF-related strokes.

Ambulatory monitoring is increasingly important for cardiovascular care but is often limited by the unpredictability of cardiovascular events, the intermittent nature of ambulatory monitors and the variable clinical significance of recorded data in patients. Technological advances in computing have led to the introduction of novel physiological biosignals that can increase the frequency at which abnormalities in cardiovascular parameters can be detected, making expert-level, automated diagnosis a reality. However, use of these biosignals for diagnosis also raises numerous concerns related to accuracy and actionability within clinical guidelines, in addition to medico-legal and ethical issues. Analytical methods such as machine learning can potentially increase the accuracy and improve the actionability of device-based diagnoses. Coupled with interoperability of data to widen access to all stakeholders, seamless connectivity (an internet of things) and maintenance of anonymity, this approach could ultimately facilitate near-real-time diagnosis and therapy. These tools are increasingly recognized by regulatory agencies and professional medical societies, but several technical and ethical issues remain. In this Review, we describe the current state of cardiovascular monitoring along the continuum from biosignal acquisition to the identification of novel biosensors and the development of analytical techniques and ultimately to regulatory and ethical issues. Furthermore, we outline new paradigms for cardiovascular monitoring.