• Here, palaeobotanical and genetic data for common beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Europe are used to evaluate the genetic consequences of long-term survival in refuge areas and postglacial spread. • Four large datasets are presented, including over 400 fossil-pollen sites, 80 plant-macrofossil sites, and 450 and 600 modern beech populations for chloroplast and nuclear markers, respectively. • The largely complementary palaeobotanical and genetic data indicate that: (i) beech survived the last glacial period in multiple refuge areas; (ii) the central European refugia were separated from the Mediterranean refugia; (iii) the Mediterranean refuges did not contribute to the colonization of central and northern Europe; (iv) some populations expanded considerably during the postglacial period, while others experienced only a limited expansion; (v) the mountain chains were not geographical barriers for beech but rather facilitated its diffusion; and (vi) the modern genetic diversity was shaped over multiple glacial–interglacial cycles. • This scenario differs from many recent treatments of tree phylogeography in Europe that largely focus on the last ice age and the postglacial period to interpret genetic structure and argue that the southern peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) were the main source areas for trees in central and northern Europe.

Summary: Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas‐fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine‐scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate. Contents Summary 38 I. Climate refugia: biogeographical and conservation significance 38 II. Approaches for reconstructing refugia: strengths, limitations and recent advances 39 III. Climate refugia of the past: three case studies 46 IV. New integrative approaches to reconstructing refugia 47 V. How can historical refugia inform us about future refugia? 48 VI. Concluding thoughts 49 Acknowledgements 49 References 49

Aim  Establishing possible relationships between the magnitudes of the glacial distribution of the European beech, Fagus sylvatica L., and its post‐glacial spread.Location  Europe.Methods  A database of over 400 pollen records has been used to locate Fagus populations at the end of the last glacial and during the post‐glacial in Europe and to assess the areal extent of their past distribution.Results  The rate of late‐glacial and post‐glacial increase in the number of pollen sites where Fagus was locally present conforms well to a logistic model of population growth. This suggests that the area occupied by beech populations expanded exponentially from the glacial refugia for a duration of over 10,000 years, until about 3500 yr bp. In the past three millennia beech populations increased at a slower rate, tending towards an equilibrium value.Main conclusions  The conformity of the increase in beech distribution to the classical logistic model of population growth indicates that: (1) a multiplicative biological process was the main factor shaping the pattern of the post‐glacial expansion of F. sylvatica in Europe, (2) climate conditions, human activity and competition may have influenced its rate of spread, and (3) beech populations did not expand with a moving closed front, but with a diffuse spread from scattered nuclei. The distribution of Fagus in Europe at the end of the last glacial appears to have been of two orders of magnitude less extensive than at present. Pleistocene refugia were likely to have been a mosaic of sparse stands of small populations scattered in multiple regions. Fagus populations appear to have increased very slowly and to a moderate extent in southern Europe, where they are now declining slightly. The central European populations increased quickly and extensively, reaching northern Europe, and are now approaching their carrying capacity.

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo‐ fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote‐sensing observations of month‐by‐month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.