China’s energy consumption experienced rapid growth over the past three decades, raising great concerns for the future adjustment of China’s energy consumption structure. This paper first presents the historical evidence on China’s energy consumption by the fuel types and sectors. Then, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework and using long-range energy alternatives planning energy modeling tool, the future of China’s energy consumption structure under three scenarios is forecast. According to the estimates, China’s total energy consumption will increase from 3014 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015 to 4470 Mtoe in 2040 under the current policies scenario, 4040 Mtoe in 2040 under the moderate policies scenario and 3320 Mtoe in 2040 under the strong policies scenario, respectively, lower than those of the IEA’s estimations. In addition, the clean fuels (gas, nuclear and renewables) could be an effective alternative to the conventional fossil fuels (coal and oil) and offer much more potential. Furthermore, the industry sector has much strong reduction potentials than the other sectors. Finally, this paper suggests that the Chinese government should incorporate consideration of adjustment of the energy consumption structure into existing energy policies and measures in the future.

Following the “going out” strategy, Chinese oil and gas companies have been widely involved in investing and operating business abroad to mitigate the increasing energy imbalance between supply and demand. Overseas oil investment, characterized by high risks and high returns, plays a significant role in ensuring energy security and strengthening global competitiveness in China. However, compared with overseas upstream projects, the downstream oil refining investment is still in the preliminary development stage, with limited experience for references, which further increases the risk surrounding such multibillion-dollar ventures. Hence, it is significant to assess the investment risks so as to help investors be fully aware of them and then make optimal investment decisions. To this end, this paper successfully identifies the main risk factors, including the local investment environment risk, technical risk, organization management risk, health, safety and environment (HSE) and social responsibility risk, and economic risk. Then, a qualitative-quantitative comprehensive risk evaluation method, combining the fuzzy mathematics and the grey system theory, is proposed and applied to analyze the investment risks of one Chinese overseas oil refining project as a case study. The assessment results are basically in accordance with the practical conditions, which validate the reliability and reasonability of the proposed risk assessment model in regard to the overseas oil refining project. The findings of this research provide the theoretical foundation and practical methodology of the risk analysis for future investment in oil refining areas.

As a cleaner, high-efficiency, and low-carbon fuel, natural gas has been an important fuel resource for China. To achieve a substantial increase in natural gas demand, China has sought to reform its natural gas pricing mechanism. Employing a set of unbalanced panel data for China’s 30 provinces covering 1999–2015, this study aims to estimate the evolving price and income elasticities of natural gas demand and explore the effect of natural gas price reform in China. For this purpose, a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity is utilized. The results suggest that although natural gas demand in China still lacks negative price elasticity, the phenomenon is improving. Moreover, the estimates suggest that natural gas demand in China is indeed becoming increasingly sensitive to income changes. Our estimates also provide strong evidence in favor of the effect of natural gas price reform on the change in price elasticity as the price elasticity decreases in five of the seven regions. In addition, the results indicate large variations in the change in price and income elasticities of natural gas demand across China’s regions. Natural gas demand is becoming more price inelastic in Southwest China and Northwest China, while such demand in North China and East China responds less sensitively to income changes. These findings offer several policy suggestions for the reform of China’s natural gas market at the national and regional levels.

An important decision for policy makers is selecting strategic petroleum reserve sites. However, policy makers may not choose the most suitable and efficient locations for strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) due to the complexity in the choice of sites. This paper proposes a multi-objective programming model to determine the optimal locations for China’s SPR storage sites. This model considers not only the minimum response time but also the minimum transportation cost based on a series of reasonable assumptions and constraint conditions. The factors influencing SPR sites are identified to determine potential demand points and candidate storage sites. Estimation and suggestions are made for the selection of China’s future SPR storage sites based on the results of this model. When the number of petroleum storage sites is less than or equals 25 and the maximum capacity of storage sites is restricted to 10 million tonnes, the model’s result best fit for the current layout scheme selected thirteen storage sites in four scenarios. Considering the current status of SPR in China, Tianjin, Qingdao, Dalian, Daqing and Zhanjiang, Chengdu, Xi’an, and Yueyang are suggested to be the candidate locations for the third phase of the construction plan. The locations of petroleum storage sites suggested in this work could be used as a reference for decision makers.