We analyzed the peak spring tidal current speeds, annual mean tidal power densities ( $TPD$ ) and annual energy production ( $AEP$ ) obtained from experiment 06.1, referred as the “HYCOM model” throughout, of the three dimensional (3D), global model HYCOM in an area covering the Baja California Pacific and the Gulf of California. The HYCOM model is forced with astronomical tides and surface winds alone, and therefore is particularly suitable to assess the tidal current and wind-driven current contribution to in-stream energy resources. We find two areas within the Gulf of California, one in the Great Island Region and one in the Upper Gulf of California, where peak spring tidal flows reach speeds of 1.1 m per second. Second to fifth-generation tidal stream devices would be suitable for deployment in these two areas, which are very similar in terms of tidal in-stream energy resources. However, they are also very different in terms of sediment type and range in water depth, posing different challenges for in-stream technologies. The highest mean $TPD$ value when excluding TPDs equal or less than 50 W m⁻² (corresponding to the minimum velocity threshold for energy production) is of 172.8 W m⁻², and is found near the town of San Felipe, at (lat lon) = (31.006–114.64); here energy would be produced during 39.00% of the time. Finally, wind-driven currents contribute very little to the mean $TPD$ and the total $AEP$ . Therefore, the device, the grid, and any energy storage plans need to take into account the periodic tidal current fluctuations, for optimal exploitation of the resources.

Because of the need to diversify the renewable energy matrix and because hydrokinetic tidal energy technologies are mature, many in-stream tidal energy resource studies are available globally. Still, there are many questions regarding the effect of seabed changes on tidal energy resources. For coastal regions in particular, where the seabed is generally more mobile than in deep waters, bathymetric evolution could significantly affect tidal energy production. Here, two models are used to analyse the potential effect of natural morphodynamic change on tidal energy resources at two macro-tidal sandy bays, Adaír Bay and San Jorge Bay, in the Upper Gulf of California, Mexico. One of the models is (purely) hydrodynamic, and the other is a morphodynamic model (with hydrodynamic–morphodynamic coupling). The models are validated against tidal current observations obtained with acoustic Doppler current profilers in the region of interest, using three different error statistics, which showed good agreement between models and observations. The results also showed that the most significant bed changes and the largest renewable energy resources are located near the shore. Moreover, there was a good correlation between (a) regions with the most significant depth changes and (b) the areas where the difference in annual energy production with and without depth change was largest. Finally, a two-year simulation with the morphodynamic model permitted to analyse the seabed evolution of a zonal profile off Punta Choya, the headland between the two bays. This profile evolved towards a featureless equilibrium, as expected from the morphological classification for macro-tidal sandy environments under a dominant tidal forcing. However, most importantly, this natural evolution would not be detrimental to tidal energy exploitation at the site.

Hydrokinetic tidal energy is one of the few marine renewable energy resources with sufficiently mature technology for commercial exploitation. However, several parameters affect its exploitability, such as the minimum speed threshold, ambient turbulence levels, or tidal asymmetry, to name but a few. These parameters are particularly important in regions with lower mean speeds than those in first-generation sites, such as the North Sea. The Gulf of California is one of those regions. In this paper, a Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite (Delft3D FM) model in barotropic configuration is set up over the Gulf of California using a flexible mesh with resolution varying from O (500 m) in the deep regions to O (10 m) in the coastal regions. A simulation is run over the year of 2020, with a tidal forcing of 75 components. The model is validated at four tidal gauge locations and four Acoustic Doppler Current profiler (ADCP) locations. The speed, U, and tidal power density ($TPD$) indicators used for the validation were the annual means, the annual means for speeds above the 0.5 m s⁻¹ threshold, the annual means of the spring tide maxima, and the annual maxima. The contour maps of the annual means, that is, the annual means for speeds above the $0.5$ m s⁻¹ threshold, allow us to identify tidal energy hot spots throughout the Gulf of California, particularly in the Great Island region (GIR). In this region, these hot spots have higher U and $TPD$ values, in agreement with previous studies. The patterns of circulation around Tiburón Island and San Esteban Island on the East, and Ángel de la Guarda Island and San Lorenzo Island on the West, the four islands in the region with the highest tidal energy potential, are also discussed while recognizing that Tiburón Channel, between Tiburón Island and San Esteban Island, has proved to be the best siting location, based on the technical results obtained so far. The hot spots sites are further characterized by computing the tidal asymmetry in these small regions, showing the locations of the sites with smallest asymmetry, which would be the best for tidal energy exploitation. The hot spots around San Esteban Island are particularly important because they have the largest $TPD$ in the GIR, with the model predicting a $TPD$ on the order of 500–1000 W m⁻². Here, complementary field measurements obtained with two ADCPs, close to San Esteban Island, one at 15 m depth, SEs (shallow region), and the other at 60 m depth, SEd (deep region), produced $TPD$s of 1200 W m⁻² and 400 W m⁻², respectively. The analysis of the vertical profiles and the tidal asymmetry over the vertical shows the importance of developing 3D models in future investigations.

While many in-steam tidal energy resource studies have been carried out globally, very few studies have assessed the effect of seabed changes on tidal energy resources. For coastal regions in particular, where the seabed is generally more mobile than in deep waters, bathymetric evolution could have a significant effect on tidal energy production. Here two high-resolution models, one purely hydrodynamic and one morphodynamic, are used to analyse the potential effect of natural morphodynamic evolution on tidal energy resources at two macro-tidal sandy bays, Adaír Bay and San Jorge Bay, in the Upper Gulf of California, Mexico. The high-resolution models are validated using a low-resolution model and ADCP observations to assess the agreement between model predictions and observations of tides at three ADCP moorings within the domain of interest. The models’ skill is evaluated using several error statistics such as the mean relative error, the root mean square error (RMSE), and the correlation coefficient. It was found that the regions with the largest bed changes, and also the largest renewable energy resources, were near the shore. Moreover, the results indicated a good correlation between a) regions with the most significant depth changes, and b) the regions where the difference in annual energy production with and without depth change was largest. Finally, the morphodynamic model was run for two years, and the evolution of a zonal profile (in the west-east direction) off the coast at the southeastern corner of Adaír Bay was inspected. This profile evolved towards a featureless equilibrium profile, in good agreement with the morphological classification for macro-tidal sandy environments and with the model assumptions. But most importantly, this natural evolution would not be detrimental to tidal energy exploitation at the site.