Genomic selection incorporates all the available marker information into a model to predict genetic values of breeding progenies for selection. The objective of this study was to estimate genetic gains in grain yield from genomic selection (GS) in eight bi‐parental maize populations under managed drought stress environments. In each population, 148 to 300 F_2:3 (C₀) progenies were derived and crossed to a single‐cross tester from a complementary heterotic group. The resulting testcrosses of each population were evaluated under two to four managed drought stress and three to four well‐watered conditions in different locations and genotyped with 191 to 286 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The top 10% families were selected from C₀ using a phenotypic selection index and were intermated to form C₁. Selections both at C₁ and C₂ were based on genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs). The best lines from C₀ were also advanced using a pedigree selection scheme. For genetic gain studies, a total of 55 entries representing the eight populations were crossed to a single‐cross tester, and evaluated in four managed drought stress environments. Each population was represented by bulk seed containing equal amounts of seed of C₀, C₁, C₂, C₃, parents, F₁s, and lines developed via pedigree selection. Five commercial checks were included for comparison. The average gain from genomic selection per cycle across eight populations was 0.086 Mg ha^–1. The average grain yield of C₃–derived hybrids was significantly higher than that of hybrids derived from C₀. Hybrids derived from C₃ produced 7.3% (0.176 Mg ha^–1) higher grain yield than those developed through the conventional pedigree breeding method. The study demonstrated that genomic selection is more effective than pedigree‐based conventional phenotypic selection for increasing genetic gains in grain yield under drought stress in tropical maize.

Genomic prediction is expected to considerably increase genetic gains by increasing selection intensity and accelerating the breeding cycle. In this study, marker effects estimated in 255 diverse maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids were used to predict grain yield, anthesis date, and anthesis-silking interval within the diversity panel and testcross progenies of 30 F2-derived lines from each of five populations. Although up to 25% of the genetic variance could be explained by cross validation within the diversity panel, the prediction of testcross performance of F2-derived lines using marker effects estimated in the diversity panel was on average zero. Hybrids in the diversity panel could be grouped into eight breeding populations differing in mean performance. When performance was predicted separately for each breeding population on the basis of marker effects estimated in the other populations, predictive ability was low (i.e., 0.12 for grain yield). These results suggest that prediction resulted mostly from differences in mean performance of the breeding populations and less from the relationship between the training and validation sets or linkage disequilibrium with causal variants underlying the predicted traits. Potential uses for genomic prediction in maize hybrid breeding are discussed emphasizing the need of (1) a clear definition of the breeding scenario in which genomic prediction should be applied (i.e., prediction among or within populations), (2) a detailed analysis of the population structure before performing cross validation, and (3) larger training sets with strong genetic relationship to the validation set.

Genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) technologies have proven capacity for delivering large numbers of marker genotypes with potentially less ascertainment bias than standard single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Therefore, GBS has become an attractive alternative technology for genomic selection. However, the use of GBS data poses important challenges, and the accuracy of genomic prediction using GBS is currently undergoing investigation in several crops, including maize, wheat, and cassava. The main objective of this study was to evaluate various methods for incorporating GBS information and compare them with pedigree models for predicting genetic values of lines from two maize populations evaluated for different traits measured in different environments (experiments 1 and 2). Given that GBS data come with a large percentage of uncalled genotypes, we evaluated methods using nonimputed, imputed, and GBS-inferred haplotypes of different lengths (short or long). GBS and pedigree data were incorporated into statistical models using either the genomic best linear unbiased predictors (GBLUP) or the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) regressions, and prediction accuracy was quantified using cross-validation methods. The following results were found: relative to pedigree or marker-only models, there were consistent gains in prediction accuracy by combining pedigree and GBS data; there was increased predictive ability when using imputed or nonimputed GBS data over inferred haplotype in experiment 1, or nonimputed GBS and information-based imputed short and long haplotypes, as compared to the other methods in experiment 2; the level of prediction accuracy achieved using GBS data in experiment 2 is comparable to those reported by previous authors who analyzed this data set using SNP arrays; and GBLUP and RKHS models with pedigree with nonimputed and imputed GBS data provided the best prediction correlations for the three traits in experiment 1, whereas for experiment 2 RKHS provided slightly better prediction than GBLUP for drought-stressed environments, and both models provided similar predictions in well-watered environments.

In addition to single-nucleotide polymorphisms, structural variation is abundant in many plant genomes. The structural variation across a species can be represented by a ‘pan-genome’, which is essential to fully understand the genetic control of phenotypes. However, the pan-genome’s complexity hinders its accurate assembly via sequence alignment. Here we demonstrate an approach to facilitate pan-genome construction in maize. By performing 18 trillion association tests we map 26 million tags generated by reduced representation sequencing of 14,129 maize inbred lines. Using machine-learning models we select 4.4 million accurately mapped tags as sequence anchors, 1.1 million of which are presence/absence variations. Structural variations exhibit enriched association with phenotypic traits, indicating that it is a significant source of adaptive variation in maize. The ability to efficiently map ultrahigh-density pan-genome sequence anchors enables fine characterization of structural variation and will advance both genetic research and breeding in many crops.

One of the most important applications of genomic selection in maize breeding is to predict and identify the best untested lines from biparental populations, when the training and validation sets are derived from the same cross. Nineteen tropical maize biparental populations evaluated in multienvironment trials were used in this study to assess prediction accuracy of different quantitative traits using low-density (~200 markers) and genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), respectively. An extension of the Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor that incorporates genotype × environment (GE) interaction was used to predict genotypic values; cross-validation methods were applied to quantify prediction accuracy. Our results showed that: (1) low-density SNPs (~200 markers) were largely sufficient to get good prediction in biparental maize populations for simple traits with moderate-to-high heritability, but GBS outperformed low-density SNPs for complex traits and simple traits evaluated under stress conditions with low-to-moderate heritability; (2) heritability and genetic architecture of target traits affected prediction performance, prediction accuracy of complex traits (grain yield) were consistently lower than those of simple traits (anthesis date and plant height) and prediction accuracy under stress conditions was consistently lower and more variable than under well-watered conditions for all the target traits because of their poor heritability under stress conditions; and (3) the prediction accuracy of GE models was found to be superior to that of non-GE models for complex traits and marginal for simple traits.