The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) provides data, which is widely used to assess global and regional climate change. In this study, we evaluated the ability of 37 global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP5 to simulate historical precipitation in Central Asia (CA). The relative root mean square error (RRMSE), spatial correlation coefficient, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were used as criteria for evaluation. The precipitation simulation results of GCMs were compared with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) precipitation in 1986–2005. Most models show a variety of precipitation simulation capabilities both spatially and temporally, whereas the top six models were identified as having good performance in CA, including HadCM3, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-P, CMCC-CM, and CMCC-CMS. As the GCMs have large uncertainties in the prediction of future precipitation, it is difficult to find the best model to predict future precipitation in CA. Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) results can give a good simulation of precipitation, and are superior to individual models.

As global climate change intensifies and human activity increases, the frequency and severity of droughts worldwide are escalating. In response, the Chinese government has implemented extensive afforestation efforts to combat ecological degradation, but their effectiveness in arid areas needs further evaluation. This study employed the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and correlation analysis to investigate the temporal and spatial dynamics of vegetation changes, as well as their association with climate factors, in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2020. The analysis was based on the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and high-resolution meteorological data. Additionally, we assessed the potential effects of human activities on NDVI dynamics through residual analysis. The results indicate significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity in NDVI change in Xinjiang, with varying growth rates across different seasons and regions. While some regions showed a downward trend, a significant overall increase in NDVI was observed. High NDVI values were primarily found in mountainous regions, whereas low values were more common in plains. Temperature was the main climate factor influencing interannual, spring, and autumn NDVI changes, while precipitation was primarily associated with vegetation growth during summer and winter. Residual analysis revealed that human activities had contributed to vegetation degradation in certain regions, primarily in northern Xinjiang. However, overall vegetation change showed a positive trend, with human activities accounting for over 60% to NDVI changes across different periods and regions. These findings highlight the importance of considering the impact of human activities when developing vegetation restoration and conservation strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability of ecosystems.

Water scarcity is an important factor limiting agricultural development in arid areas. Clarifying and evaluating the current situation of water resources in arid regions is helpful for decision-makers in the rational use of water resources. This study takes a typical arid region located at the edge of Taklamakan Desert-Hotan region as the study area. The water footprint (WF) of the Hotan region was calculated based on 20 years of data information from 2000–2019. An evaluation system was established using four aspects of the WF: structural indicators, efficiency indicators, ecological safety indicators, and sustainability indicators. The results show that the WF of the study area is mainly dominated by blue water consumption, with a proportion of 65.74%. The WF of crop production is larger than that of livestock production. The produced WF of grain crops is the highest of all products with a share of 44.21%. The increase in the local agricultural WF reached 53.18% from 2000 to 2019, but it was still lower than the amount of water available for agriculture. The evaluation results indicated that the region’s WF import dependency is lower than the global level, with an annual average self-sufficiency rate of 91.13% and an increase of 878.95% in the WF economic efficiency index. The agricultural WF produced in Hotan is exported in the form of trade, but the quantitative contribution is small and does little to relieve water stress in other regions. The agricultural water consumption was still within the range of local water resources that could be carried but only 6 years of sustainable water use, and the future development was not optimistic. With the ratio of produced WF to available water resources maintained at about 58%, the local available water resources should be above 43.21 × 10⁸ m³ to initially ensure the sustainable use of water resources. There were 12 drought years in the study period, which are prone to droughts and high disaster levels. The drought-water scarcity systems behaved in three phases: 2000–2011 (uncoordinated level), 2012–2015 (transitional phase), and 2016–2019 (coordinated level). Water scarcity threatened by drought reduced. The occurrence of meteorological droughts was more related to natural factors while the changes in WF were mainly driven by socio-economic elements such as human activities.

The eco-environment provides various spaces, conditions, and resources for human development, and their quality is a significant factor affecting sustainable development in a region. Most drylands face environmental fragility due to problems such as infertile land, scarce suitable living space, and a lack of resources. Therefore, investigating the temporal and spatial changes in the eco-environment of drylands is vital to developing them sustainably. This paper takes Hetian, which is located in the Tarim Basin of Western China and has typical features of an arid (or a hyper-arid) region, as the research area. The ecological index (EI) was used to construct a comprehensive ecological evaluation system, and five sub-indices (the biological richness index, vegetation coverage index, water network denseness index, land stress index, and pollution load index) were calculated to identify the quality and changes in the eco-environment of Hetian in 1995, 2009, and 2018. The results show that, from 1995 to 2018, the EI in Hetian showed a continuous downward trend (from 24.76 to 16.32), representing a change (ΔEI) of −8.44; this indicates significant deterioration in the quality of the local eco-environment. Large fluctuations in the EI also suggests that the environment in Hetian is very sensitive. In addition, the results revealed a degradation of Hetian, which includes a hyper-arid region.