The use of immune checkpoint inhibitors to treat urothelial cancer (UC) is increasing rapidly without clear guidance for validated risk stratification. This multicenter retrospective study collected clinicopathological information on 463 patients, and 11 predefined variables were analyzed to develop a multivariate model predicting overall survival (OS). The model was validated using an independent dataset of 292 patients. Patient characteristics and outcomes were well balanced between the discovery and validation cohorts, which had median OS times of 10.2 and 12.5 months, respectively. The final validated multivariate model was defined by risk scores based on the hazard ratios (HRs) of independent prognostic factors including performance status, site of metastasis, hemoglobin levels, and the neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio. The median OS times (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for the low‐, intermediate‐, and high‐risk groups (discovery cohort) were not yet reached (NYR) (NYR–19.1), 6.8 months (5.8–8.9), and 2.3 months (1.2–2.6), respectively. The HRs (95% CI) for OS in the low‐ and intermediate‐risk groups versus the high‐risk group were 0.07 (0.04–0.11) and 0.23 (0.15–0.37), respectively. The objective response rates for in the low‐, intermediate‐, and high‐risk groups were 48.3%, 28.8%, and 10.5%, respectively. These differential outcomes were well reproduced in the validation cohort and in patients who received pembrolizumab after perioperative or first‐line chemotherapy (N = 584). In conclusion, the present study developed and validated a simple prognostic model predicting the oncological outcomes of pembrolizumab‐treated patients with chemoresistant UC. The model provides useful information for external validation, patient counseling, and clinical trial design.

Objectives: Immune checkpoint inhibitors and enfortumab vedotin have opened new avenues for sequential treatment strategies for locally advanced/metastatic urothelial carcinoma (la/mUC). In the pre‐enfortumab vedotin era, many patients could not receive third‐line treatment owing to rapid disease progression and poor general status. This study aimed to analyze real‐world sequential treatment practices for la/mUC in Japan, with a focus on patients who do not receive third‐line treatment.Methods: We analyzed data for 1023 la/mUC patients diagnosed between January 2020 and December 2021 at 54 institutions from a Japanese nationwide cohort.Results: At the median follow‐up of 28.5 months, the median overall survival from first‐line initiation for 905 patients who received systemic anticancer treatment was 19.1 months. Among them, 81% and 32% received second‐ and third‐line treatment. Notably, 52% had their treatment terminated before the opportunity for third‐line treatment. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that low performance status (≥1), elevated neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (≥3), and low body mass index (<21 kg/m²) at the start of first‐line treatment were independent risk factors for not proceeding to third‐line treatment (p = 0.0024, 0.0069, and 0.0058, respectively). In this cohort, 33% had one of these factors, 36% had two, and 15% had all three.Conclusions: This study highlights the high frequency of factors associated with poor tolerance to anticancer treatment in la/mUC patients. The findings suggest the need to establish optimal sequential treatment strategies, maximizing efficacy within time and tolerance constraints, while concurrently providing strong supportive care, considering immunological and nutritional aspects.

Background: The benefits of pembrolizumab in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma (UC) and impaired performance status (PS) remain unknown. This study assessed the safety and efficacy of pembrolizumab in patients with platinum‐refractory UC and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group PS ≥2 to identify which subgroups may benefit from this drug.Methods: This retrospective nationwide cohort study collected clinicopathological information for 755 patients from 59 institutions. The overall response rate (ORR) and overall survival (OS) were compared among the patients with PS 0–1, 2, and 3–4. Multivariate analysis was conducted to identify factors predicting OS in patients with PS ≥2.Results: The numbers of patients with PS 0–1, 2, and 3–4 were 602, 98, and 55, respectively; the ORRs in these groups were 29.5, 15.3, and 9.1%, respectively, and the median OS times were 14.3, 3.1, and 2.4 months, respectively. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, a neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥3.5 (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.897) and liver metastasis (HR = 2.072) were associated with OS in the PS ≥2 subgroup. The median OS of patients with PS ≥2 without either risk factor was 6.8 months, compared with 3.1 months for patients with one risk factor and 2.3 months for patients with both risk factors.Conclusions: PS ≥2 portended worse ORR and OS than PS ≤1 despite a comparable safety profile. Among the patients with impaired PS, patients with NLR <3.5 and no liver metastasis may most greatly benefit from pembrolizumab therapy.

To investigate the association between the onset, severity, and type of immune‐related adverse events (irAEs) and the efficacy of pembrolizumab in patients with platinum‐pretreated advanced urothelial carcinoma (UC), we retrospectively collected clinical datasets of 755 patients and conducted landmark analysis. Patients who survived for fewer than 3 months were excluded from the evaluation to reduce the immortal time bias. In total, 620 patients were evaluated, of whom 220 patients (35.5%) experienced grade ≥2 irAEs, including 134 patients with grade 2 irAEs and 86 with grade ≥3 irAEs. Propensity score matching extracted 198 patients with and without grade ≥2 irAEs. The onset of grade ≥2 irAEs was associated with longer median progression‐free survival (PFS) (8.3 months vs. 4.5 months, p = 0.003) and overall survival (OS) (20.4 months vs. 14.3 months, p = 0.031) and a higher objective response rate (ORR) (44.8% vs. 30.2%, p = 0.004). Patients with grade 2 irAEs had significantly better oncological outcomes (PFS, OS, and ORR) than grade ≤1 and ≥3 irAEs. Patients with grade ≥3 irAEs had worse outcomes than grade 2 irAEs. Endocrine and skin irAEs were related with better survival outcomes, and the rate of severities was lower in these categories. In conclusion, the occurrence of irAEs, particularly low‐grade irAEs, was predictive of pembrolizumab efficacy in patients with platinum‐pretreated advanced UC.