The Mediterranean offers a unique opportunity to study the driving forces of tectonic deformation within a complex mobile belt. Lithospheric dynamics are affected by slab rollback and collision of two large, slowly moving plates, forcing fragments of continental and oceanic lithosphere to interact. This paper reviews the rich and growing set of constraints from geological reconstructions, geodetic data, and crustal and upper mantle heterogeneity imaged by structural seismology. We proceed to discuss a conceptual and quantitative framework for the causes of surface deformation. Exploring existing and newly developed tectonic and numerical geodynamic models, we illustrate the role of mantle convection on surface geology. A coherent picture emerges which can be outlined by two, almost symmetric, upper mantle convection cells. The downwellings are found in the center of the Mediterranean and are associated with the descent of the Tyrrhenian and the Hellenic slabs. During plate convergence, these slabs migrated backward with respect to the Eurasian upper plate, inducing a return flow of the asthenosphere from the back‐arc regions toward the subduction zones. This flow can be found at large distance from the subduction zones and is at present expressed in two upwellings beneath Anatolia and eastern Iberia. This convection system provides an explanation for the general pattern of seismic anisotropy in the Mediterranean, first‐order Anatolia, and Adria microplate kinematics and may contribute to the high elevation of scarcely deformed areas such as Anatolia and eastern Iberia. More generally, the Mediterranean is an illustration of how upper mantle, small‐scale convection leads to intraplate deformation and complex plate boundary reconfiguration at the westernmost terminus of the Tethyan collision.

Summary. The Western Mediterranean displays a complex pattern of crustal deformation distributed along tectonically active belts developed in the framework of

We use 2.5 to 14 years long position time series from >800 continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) stations to study vertical deformation rates in the Euro‐Mediterranean region. We estimate and remove common mode errors in position time series using a principal component analysis, obtaining a significant gain in the signal‐to‐noise ratio of the displacements data. Following the results of a maximum likelihood estimation analysis, which gives a mean spectral index ~ −0.7, we adopt a power law + white noise stochastic model in estimating the final vertical rates and find 95% of the velocities within ±2 mm/yr, with uncertainties from filtered time series ~40% smaller than from the unfiltered ones. We highlight the presence of statistically significant velocity gradients where the stations density is higher. We find undulations of the vertical velocity field at different spatial scales both in tectonically active regions, like eastern Alps, Apennines, and eastern Mediterranean, and in regions characterized by a low or negligible tectonic activity, like central Iberia and western Alps. A correlation between smooth vertical velocities and topographic features is apparent in many sectors of the study area. Glacial isostatic adjustment and weathering processes do not completely explain the measured rates, and a combination of active tectonics and deep‐seated geodynamic processes must be invoked. Excluding areas where localized processes are likely, or where subduction processes may be active, mantle dynamics is the most likely process, but regional mantle modeling is required for a better understanding.

We depict the relative sea-level rise scenarios for the year 2100 from four areas of the Italian peninsula. Our estimates are based on the Rahmstorf (2007) and IPCC-AR5 reports 2013 for the RCP-8.5 scenarios (www.ipcc.ch) of climate change, adjusted for the rates of vertical land movements (isostasy and tectonics). These latter are inferred from the elevation of MIS 5.5 deposits and from late Holocene sea-level indicators, matched against sea-level predictions for the same periods using the glacio-hydro-isostatic model of Lambeck et al. (2011). We focus on a variety of tectonic settings: the subsiding North Adriatic coast (including the Venice lagoon), two tectonically stable Sardinia coastal plains (Oristano and Cagliari), and the slightly uplifting Taranto coastal plain, in Apulia. Maps of flooding scenarios are shown on high-resolution Digital Terrain Models mostly based on Lidar data. The expected relative sea-level rise by 2100 will change dramatically the present-day morphology, potentially flooding up to about 5500 km2 of coastal plains at elevations close to present-day sea level. The subsequent loss of land will impact the environment and local infrastructures, suggesting land planners and decision makers to take into account these scenarios for a cognizant coastal management. Our method developed for the Italian coast can be applied worldwide in other coastal areas expected to be affected by marine ingression due to global climate change