Most research that has examined the international variation in homicide levels has focused on structural variables, with the suggestion that socio-economic development operates as a cure for violence. In Latin America, development has occurred, but high homicide levels remain, suggesting the involvement of other influencing factors. We posit that government effectiveness and corruption control may contribute to explaining the variation in homicide levels, and in particular in the Latin America region. Our results show that social and economic structural variables are useful but are not conclusive in explaining the variation in homicide levels and that the relationship between homicide, government effectiveness, and corruption control was significant and highly pronounced for countries in the Latin American region. The findings highlight the importance of supporting institutions in improving their effectiveness in Latin America so that reductions in homicide (and improvements in citizen security in general) can be achieved.

Policy formulation is a crucial stage of the policy cycle, where social problems and demands are addressed, and transformed into government policies. This stage is complex and is one of the least analytically developed stages of the policy making process. In this article, we propose an adaptation of the EMMIE framework (created to review and rate the quality of evidence on crime reduction initiatives) as a practical means of encouraging an evidence based, systematic way of formulating policies. We argue that the five components of EMMIE (i.e. Effect, Mechanisms, Moderators, Implementation and Economics) provide useful dimensions that policy makers can apply to understand, plan and formulate successful policies. We suggest the application of the adapted EMMIE framework can improve policy formulation and in turn increase the likelihood of effective policy implementation and evaluation.

While organised crime has long been entrenched in Latin America, the spatial configuration of violence associated with it has undergone significant transformations in recent years. Homicide rates have escalated beyond traditional epicentres, spreading to countries once perceived as relatively safe. In Ecuador, the homicide rate rose by 429% between 2019 and 2024, largely driven by drug-related violence, while in Uruguay, 21% of homicides are connected to conflicts related to the illegal drug market. Beyond security concerns, organised crime undermines governance, erodes trust and constrains development. This article develops a mid-range analytical framework to explain these trends, linking criminal group fragmentation, institutional weakness and illegal market dynamics through the concepts of criminal governance and thick crime habitats. Using comparative case studies of Montevideo, Rosario, Guayaquil and Limón, it shows how organised crime adapts to varying contexts of institutional fragility and illegal market dynamics. The findings contribute to the refinement of existing theories of state–crime relations and highlight the emergence of new forms of criminal governance in urban and lower-violence contexts.

The adapted EMMIE framework is based on the realist evaluation approach that seeks to understand what, how, for whom, and under what circumstances policies work. Realist evaluators aim to identify the underlying mechanisms that explain the functioning of policies. The framework refers to the (E) effect, (M) mechanism, (M) moderator/context, (I) implementation, and (E) economic costs of a policy. This research uses the adapted EMMIE framework to evaluate and assess the characteristics of 89 homicide reduction programmes. Results show that the EMMIE components for mechanisms and implementation were included to some extent by policymakers, but the remaining three components (i.e., moderators/context, effect size, and economic costs) registered low scores. It is concluded that the ineffectiveness of homicide reduction programmes may be due to deficiencies in programme evaluation and cost planning, but it may also be related to a lack of understanding of the contexts in which these programmes are supposed to work.

Existing research on the causes of homicide often yields contradictory results, with limited studies focusing on regional contexts. While many analyses are cross-national at the global level, regional studies remain scarce despite critiques highlighting their significance. This study aims to address these gaps by analyzing factors influencing homicide rates globally and regionally, with a focus on the Americas, Africa, Asia, and Europe. We utilize panel regression analysis on a dataset spanning from 2012 to 2021, including variables such as inequality, unemployment, educational attainment, poverty, urbanization, government effectiveness, and corruption. The findings reveal that educational attainment and government effectiveness are significant determinants of homicide rates, particularly in the Americas, while corruption, poverty, and unemployment exert minimal influence. These results underscore the critical role of institutional effectiveness and education in mitigating violence and highlight the need for region-specific policy interventions. Word count: 8,299