The sustainable exploitation of small pelagic fish populations, characterized by short life span and early age at first reproduction, is typically more influenced by the success of annual recruitment rather than by fishing mortality. Recruitment strength, in turn, is related to the high environmental variability characterizing the pelagic fish habitats, able to strongly affect the survival of early stages, from hatching to recruitment. Here, we consider the case study of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) stock in the Strait of Sicily (Central Mediterranean). The interannual fluctuations exhibited over an 18-year long period by this fish population was found to be mainly linked to surface circulation patterns, as far as they are able to control retention/dispersal processes of larval stages. We firstly used Lagrangian simulations to reproduce the fate of anchovy early stages during their planktonic phase. Larval retention indices constructed from the output of the simulations were able alone to explain a large proportion of variance (up to 70%) in yearly biomass of the anchovy population, outclassing the other environmental factors considered in this study. Such results are relevant for fisheries management, for all fish stocks characterized by potentially high vulnerability of early life stages.

The hydrological and biogeochemical time series from 2010 to 2020 have highlighted specific relationships and trends in oceanographic processes and nutrient patterns in the Sicily Channel. Specifically, temperature and salinity time series in the intermediate waters showed a sharp annual increase of about 0.06°C and 0.09 within the period 2010-2020, at rates that are about 50% higher than what observed within the previous decade. Similar trends were also present in deep waters, although with lower variations of both temperature and salinity. The time series in the intermediate water, also highlighted the presence of quasi cyclic fluctuations that can be associated with the alternation of the circulation modes (cyclonic and anticyclonic) of the Northern Ionian Gyre. Moreover, an opposite trend emerged by comparing the nutrients and salinity time series in intermediate waters, while similar patterns has been evidenced between nutrients and chlorophyll-a concentration. This latter finding is not consistently present in the Mediterranean area, suggesting the need of further studies on a wider scale.

Ecological connectivity is one of the most important processes that shape marine populations and ecosystems, determining their distribution, persistence, and productivity. Here we use the synergy of Lagrangian back-trajectories, otolith-derived ages of larvae, and satellite-based chlorophyll-a to identify spawning areas of European anchovy from ichthyoplanktonic data, collected in the Strait of Sicily (Central Mediterranean Sea), i.e., the crucial channel in between the European and African continents. We obtain new evidence of ecosystem connectivity between North Africa and recruitment regions off the southern European coasts. We assess this result by using bio-energetic modeling, which predicts species-specific responses to environmental changes by producing quantitative information on functional traits. Our work gives support to a collaborative and harmonized use of Geographical Sub-Areas, currently identified by the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean. It also confirms the need to incorporate climate and environmental variability effects into future marine resources management plans, strategies, and directives.