Although machine learning (ML) has shown promise across disciplines, out-of-sample generalizability is concerning. This is currently addressed by sharing multi-site data, but such centralization is challenging/infeasible to scale due to various limitations. Federated ML (FL) provides an alternative paradigm for accurate and generalizable ML, by only sharing numerical model updates. Here we present the largest FL study to-date, involving data from 71 sites across 6 continents, to generate an automatic tumor boundary detector for the rare disease of glioblastoma, reporting the largest such dataset in the literature (n = 6, 314). We demonstrate a 33% delineation improvement for the surgically targetable tumor, and 23% for the complete tumor extent, over a publicly trained model. We anticipate our study to: 1) enable more healthcare studies informed by large diverse data, ensuring meaningful results for rare diseases and underrepresented populations, 2) facilitate further analyses for glioblastoma by releasing our consensus model, and 3) demonstrate the FL effectiveness at such scale and task-complexity as a paradigm shift for multi-site collaborations, alleviating the need for data-sharing.

Load forecasting is critical for effective scheduling and operation of power systems, which are becoming increasingly complex and uncertain, especially with the penetration of distributed power. This paper proposes a data-driven deep learning framework to forecast the short-term power load. First, the load data is processed by Box-Cox transformation. The tail-dependence of the power load on electricity price and temperature is then investigated by fitting the parametric Copula models and computing the threshold of peak load. Next, a deep belief network is built to forecast the hourly load of the power system. One-year grid load data collected from urban areas in both Texas and Arkansas, in the United States, is utilized in the case studies on short-term load forecasting (day-ahead and week-ahead) is conducted for four seasons independently. The proposed framework is compared with classical neural networks, support vector regression machine, extreme learning machine, and classical deep belief networks. The load forecasting performance is evaluated using mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, and hit rate. The proposed framework outperforms the tested state-of-the-art algorithms, with respect to the accuracies of both day-ahead and week-ahead forecasting. Overall, the computational results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven deep learning framework.

The sensitivity of heterogeneous energetic (HE) materials (propellants, explosives, and pyrotechnics) is critically dependent on their microstructure. Initiation of chemical reactions occurs at hot spots due to energy localization at sites of porosities and other defects. Emerging multi-scale predictive models of HE response to loads account for the physics at the meso-scale, i.e. at the scale of statistically representative clusters of particles and other features in the microstructure. Meso-scale physics is infused in machine-learned closure models informed by resolved meso-scale simulations. Since microstructures are stochastic, ensembles of meso-scale simulations are required to quantify hot spot ignition and growth and to develop models for microstructure-dependent energy deposition rates. We propose utilizing generative adversarial networks (GAN) to spawn ensembles of synthetic heterogeneous energetic material microstructures. The method generates qualitatively and quantitatively realistic microstructures by learning from images of HE microstructures. We show that the proposed GAN method also permits the generation of new morphologies, where the porosity distribution can be controlled and spatially manipulated. Such control paves the way for the design of novel microstructures to engineer HE materials for targeted performance in a materials-by-design framework.

Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) represents approximately 80–85% of lung cancer diagnoses and is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Recent studies indicate that image-based radiomics features from positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) images have predictive power for NSCLC outcomes. To this end, easily calculated functional features such as the maximum and the mean of standard uptake value (SUV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) are most commonly used for NSCLC prognostication, but their prognostic value remains controversial. Meanwhile, convolutional neural networks (CNN) are rapidly emerging as a new method for cancer image analysis, with significantly enhanced predictive power compared to hand-crafted radiomics features. Here we show that CNNs trained to perform the tumor segmentation task, with no other information than physician contours, identify a rich set of survival-related image features with remarkable prognostic value. In a retrospective study on pre-treatment PET-CT images of 96 NSCLC patients before stereotactic-body radiotherapy (SBRT), we found that the CNN segmentation algorithm (U-Net) trained for tumor segmentation in PET and CT images, contained features having strong correlation with 2- and 5-year overall and disease-specific survivals. The U-Net algorithm has not seen any other clinical information (e.g. survival, age, smoking history, etc.) than the images and the corresponding tumor contours provided by physicians. In addition, we observed the same trend by validating the U-Net features against an extramural data set provided by Stanford Cancer Institute. Furthermore, through visualization of the U-Net, we also found convincing evidence that the regions of metastasis and recurrence appear to match with the regions where the U-Net features identified patterns that predicted higher likelihoods of death. We anticipate our findings will be a starting point for more sophisticated non-intrusive patient specific cancer prognosis determination. For example, the deep learned PET/CT features can not only predict survival but also visualize high-risk regions within or adjacent to the primary tumor and hence potentially impact therapeutic outcomes by optimal selection of therapeutic strategy or first-line therapy adjustment.

For material modeling and discovery, synthetic microstructures play a critical role as digital twins. They provide stochastic samples upon which direct numerical simulations can be conducted to populate material databases. A large ensemble of simulation data on synthetic microstructures may provide supplemental data to inform and refine macroscopic material models, which might not be feasible from physical experiments alone. However, synthesizing realistic microstructures with realistic microstructural attributes is highly challenging. Thus, it is often oversimplified via rough approximations that may yield an inaccurate representation of the physical world. Here, we propose a novel deep learning method that can synthesize realistic three-dimensional microstructures with controlled structural properties using the combination of generative adversarial networks (GAN) and actor-critic (AC) reinforcement learning. The GAN-AC combination enables the generation of microstructures that not only resemble the appearances of real specimens but also yield user-defined physical quantities of interest (QoI). Our validation experiments confirm that the properties of synthetic microstructures generated by the GAN-AC framework are within a 5% error margin with respect to the target values. The scientific contribution of this paper resides in the novel design of the GAN-AC microstructure generator and the mathematical and algorithmic foundations therein. The proposed method will have a broad and substantive impact on the materials community by providing lenses for analyzing structure-property-performance linkages and for implementing the notion of ‘materials-by-design’.