Land use and land cover change (LUCC) significantly influences the dynamics of carbon storage in thin terrestrial ecosystems. Investigating the interplay between land use alterations and carbon sequestration is crucial for refining regional land use configurations, sustaining the regional carbon balance, and augmenting regional carbon storage. Using land use data from the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration (PRDUA) from 2010 to 2020, this study employed PLUS-InVEST models to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and carbon storage. Projections for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 were performed under three distinct developmental scenarios, namely, natural development (ND), city priority development (CPD), and ecological protection development (EPD), to forecast changes in land use and carbon storage. The geographic detector model was leveraged to dissect the determinants of the spatial and temporal variability of carbon storage, offering pertinent recommendations. The results showed that (1) during 2010–2020, the carbon storage in the PRDUA showed a decreasing trend, with a total decrease of 9.52 × 10⁶ Mg, and the spatial distribution of carbon density in the urban agglomeration was imbalanced and showed an overall trend in increasing from the center to the periphery. (2) Clear differences in carbon storage were observed among the three development scenarios of the PRDUA between 2030 and 2050. Only the EPD scenario achieved an increase in carbon storage of 1.10 × 10⁶ Mg, and it was the scenario with the greatest potential for carbon sequestration. (3) Among the drivers of the evolution of spatial land use patterns, population, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and distance to the railway had the greatest influence on LUCC. (4) The annual average temperature, annual average rainfall, and GDP exerted a significant influence on the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage in the PRDUA, and the interactions between the 15 drivers and changes in carbon storage predominantly manifested as nonlinear and double-factor enhancements. The results provide a theoretical basis for future spatial planning and achieving carbon neutrality in the PRDUA.

To achieve the sustainable development goals established by the United Nations in 2015, China has adopted a series of measures to promote the modernization of water conservancy. However, its construction in China is imbalanced across regions as the endowment of water resources and economic development are distinct. Consequently, it is important to assess the progress of and analyze the spatial heterogeneity of water conservancy modernization construction in China from the perspective of sustainable development goals (SDGs). In this study, 31 regions in China were selected, and data on water conservancy construction in these sampled regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) were collected in 2018. The results show that there exists an imbalanced development in terms of the overall level and the index level. About 60% of the regions scored below the overall average score for China’s current modernization of water conservancy. The eastern areas presented a high level of modernization, while the central, northeast, and western areas showed comparable modernization of water conservancy, all of which lag behind eastern areas of China. Furthermore, China’s water conservancy modernization also presented a strong spatial autocorrelation, and there was at least one deficiency in 55% of the regions, with the rate of deficiencies emerging in the West being much higher than in other regions. In a nutshell, this study provides a novel framework that can be extended to evaluate the SDGs and the effectiveness of water governance in other countries.