Rationale: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) have worse clinical outcomes compared with patients without metabolic dysregulation. GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide 1) receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) reduce asthma exacerbation risk and improve FVC in patients with COPD. Objectives: To determine whether GLP-1RA use is associated with reduced COPD exacerbation rates, and severe and moderate exacerbation risk, compared with other T2D therapies. Methods: A retrospective, observational, electronic health records–based study was conducted using an active comparator, new-user design of 1,642 patients with COPD in a U.S. health system from 2012 to 2022. The COPD cohort was identified using a previously validated machine learning algorithm that includes a natural language processing tool. Exposures were defined as prescriptions for GLP-1RAs (reference group), DPP-4 (dipeptidyl peptidase 4) inhibitors (DPP-4is), SGLT2 (sodium-glucose cotransporter 2) inhibitors, or sulfonylureas. Measurements and Main Results: Unadjusted COPD exacerbation counts were lower in GLP-1RA users. Adjusted exacerbation rates were significantly higher in DPP-4i (incidence rate ratio, 1.48 [95% confidence interval, 1.08–2.04]; P = 0.02) and sulfonylurea (incidence rate ratio, 2.09 [95% confidence interval, 1.62–2.69]; P < 0.0001) users compared with GLP-1RA users. GLP-1RA use was also associated with significantly reduced risk of severe exacerbations compared with DPP-4i and sulfonylurea use, and of moderate exacerbations compared with sulfonylurea use. After adjustment for clinical covariates, moderate exacerbation risk was also lower in GLP-1RA users compared with DPP-4i users. No statistically significant difference in exacerbation outcomes was seen between GLP-1RA and SGLT2 inhibitor users. Conclusions: Prospective studies of COPD exacerbations in patients with comorbid T2D are warranted. Additional research may elucidate the mechanisms underlying these observed associations with T2D medications.

The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of SARS-CoV-2 has been reported as more transmissible, but less severe, than previous variants in a variety of locations including South Africa, Scotland, England, and Canada.^1-4 Subsequently, other Omicron subvariants have become dominant in the population.⁵ Quantifying the intrinsic severity of these new subvariants remains challenging.⁶ Some cohort studies have attempted to quantify the severity of the Omicron BA.2 lineages but have shown different outcomes.^7,8 This retrospective cohort study is the largest published that we know of to examine the severity of the BA.2 lineage and accounts for a variety of likely confounding factors.

Background: Admissions are generally classified as COVID-19 hospitalizations if the patient has a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. However, because 35% of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic, patients admitted for unrelated indications with an incidentally positive test could be misclassified as a COVID-19 hospitalization. Electronic health record (EHR)–based studies have been unable to distinguish between a hospitalization specifically for COVID-19 versus an incidental SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization. Although the need to improve classification of COVID-19 versus incidental SARS-CoV-2 is well understood, the magnitude of the problems has only been characterized in small, single-center studies. Furthermore, there have been no peer-reviewed studies evaluating methods for improving classification. Objective: The aims of this study are to, first, quantify the frequency of incidental hospitalizations over the first 15 months of the pandemic in multiple hospital systems in the United States and, second, to apply electronic phenotyping techniques to automatically improve COVID-19 hospitalization classification. Methods: From a retrospective EHR-based cohort in 4 US health care systems in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, a random sample of 1123 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive patients hospitalized from March 2020 to August 2021 was manually chart-reviewed and classified as “admitted with COVID-19” (incidental) versus specifically admitted for COVID-19 (“for COVID-19”). EHR-based phenotyping was used to find feature sets to filter out incidental admissions. Results: EHR-based phenotyped feature sets filtered out incidental admissions, which occurred in an average of 26% of hospitalizations (although this varied widely over time, from 0% to 75%). The top site-specific feature sets had 79%-99% specificity with 62%-75% sensitivity, while the best-performing across-site feature sets had 71%-94% specificity with 69%-81% sensitivity. Conclusions: A large proportion of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive admissions were incidental. Straightforward EHR-based phenotypes differentiated admissions, which is important to assure accurate public health reporting and research.

The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the world with health and economic wreckage. Precise estimates of adverse outcomes from COVID-19 could have led to better allocation of healthcare resources and more efficient targeted preventive measures, including insight into prioritizing how to best distribute a vaccination. We developed MLHO (pronounced as melo), an end-to-end Machine Learning framework that leverages iterative feature and algorithm selection to predict Health Outcomes. MLHO implements iterative sequential representation mining, and feature and model selection, for predicting patient-level risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, need for mechanical ventilation, and death. It bases this prediction on data from patients’ past medical records (before their COVID-19 infection). MLHO’s architecture enables a parallel and outcome-oriented model calibration, in which different statistical learning algorithms and vectors of features are simultaneously tested to improve prediction of health outcomes. Using clinical and demographic data from a large cohort of over 13,000 COVID-19-positive patients, we modeled the four adverse outcomes utilizing about 600 features representing patients’ pre-COVID health records and demographics. The mean AUC ROC for mortality prediction was 0.91, while the prediction performance ranged between 0.80 and 0.81 for the ICU, hospitalization, and ventilation. We broadly describe the clusters of features that were utilized in modeling and their relative influence for predicting each outcome. Our results demonstrated that while demographic variables (namely age) are important predictors of adverse outcomes after a COVID-19 infection, the incorporation of the past clinical records are vital for a reliable prediction model. As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds around the world, adaptable and interpretable machine learning frameworks (like MLHO) are crucial to improve our readiness for confronting the potential future waves of COVID-19, as well as other novel infectious diseases that may emerge.

Objective: The increasing translation of artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) models into clinical practice brings an increased risk of direct harm from modeling bias; however, bias remains incompletely measured in many medical AI applications. This article aims to provide a framework for objective evaluation of medical AI from multiple aspects, focusing on binary classification models. Materials and Methods: Using data from over 56 000 Mass General Brigham (MGB) patients with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we evaluate unrecognized bias in 4 AI models developed during the early months of the pandemic in Boston, Massachusetts that predict risks of hospital admission, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and death after a SARS-CoV-2 infection purely based on their pre-infection longitudinal medical records. Models were evaluated both retrospectively and prospectively using model-level metrics of discrimination, accuracy, and reliability, and a novel individual-level metric for error. Results: We found inconsistent instances of model-level bias in the prediction models. From an individual-level aspect, however, we found most all models performing with slightly higher error rates for older patients. Discussion: While a model can be biased against certain protected groups (ie, perform worse) in certain tasks, it can be at the same time biased towards another protected group (ie, perform better). As such, current bias evaluation studies may lack a full depiction of the variable effects of a model on its subpopulations. Conclusion: Only a holistic evaluation, a diligent search for unrecognized bias, can provide enough information for an unbiased judgment of AI bias that can invigorate follow-up investigations on identifying the underlying roots of bias and ultimately make a change.

Objective: High-throughput electronic phenotyping algorithms can accelerate translational research using data from electronic health record (EHR) systems. The temporal information buried in EHRs is often underutilized in developing computational phenotypic definitions. This study aims to develop a high-throughput phenotyping method, leveraging temporal sequential patterns from EHRs. Materials and Methods: We develop a representation mining algorithm to extract 5 classes of representations from EHR diagnosis and medication records: the aggregated vector of the records (aggregated vector representation), the standard sequential patterns (sequential pattern mining), the transitive sequential patterns (transitive sequential pattern mining), and 2 hybrid classes. Using EHR data on 10 phenotypes from the Mass General Brigham Biobank, we train and validate phenotyping algorithms. Results: Phenotyping with temporal sequences resulted in a superior classification performance across all 10 phenotypes compared with the standard representations in electronic phenotyping. The high-throughput algorithm’s classification performance was superior or similar to the performance of previously published electronic phenotyping algorithms. We characterize and evaluate the top transitive sequences of diagnosis records paired with the records of risk factors, symptoms, complications, medications, or vaccinations. Discussion: The proposed high-throughput phenotyping approach enables seamless discovery of sequential record combinations that may be difficult to assume from raw EHR data. Transitive sequences offer more accurate characterization of the phenotype, compared with its individual components, and reflect the actual lived experiences of the patients with that particular disease. Conclusion: Sequential data representations provide a precise mechanism for incorporating raw EHR records into downstream machine learning. Our approach starts with user interpretability and works backward to the technology.