Studies of labor market outcomes like sickness absence are usually restricted to a single outcome. This paper investigates the use of multi-state models for studying multiple transitions between sick-listing, work, unemployment, and disability pension by analyzing longitudinal register data. Every person sick-listed in Denmark during 2004 was followed until the spring of 2008. A multi-state model was used to analyze transitions between four states: work, sickness absence, unemployment, and disability pension. The first three are possible recurrent states. The predictor variables include age group, gender, geographical region, chronic disease, temporary disease, self-employment sickness absence insurance, and pregnancy. The relative effects of previous transitions were also studied. Risk of transition from sickness absence to disability pension differs with age and geographical region. Those aged 20-29 years have an increased risk of transitioning from work to sickness absence and from sickness absence to unemployment. The self-employed have increased risk of transitioning from work to sickness absence. Those with chronic disease have increased risk of sickness absence, but also a greater probability of returning to work. Previous sickness absence increases the risk of transitioning from work to sickness absence, from sickness absence to unemployment, from work to unemployment, and from work to disability pension. The multi-state model is an effective way of analyzing register data and the transitions between sickness absence, work, unemployment, and disability pension. These methods can be used to develop better predictive models of sickness absence, return to work, unemployment, and disability.

Objective In most European countries, political reforms gradually increase the statutory retirement age to counter the economic costs of a growing elderly population. However, working to a high age may be difficult for people with hard physical labour. We aim to study the impact of high physical work demands on working life expectancy (WLE). Methods We combined physical work demands assessed by job exposure matrix (JEM) and longitudinal high-quality national registers (outcome) in 1.6 million Danish workers to estimate WLE and years of sickness absence, unemployment and disability pension. The JEM value for physical work demand is a summarised score of eight ergonomic exposures for 317 occupations groups, sex and age. The WLE was estimated using a multistate proportional hazards model in a 4-year follow-up period. Results Individuals with high physical work demands had a significantly lower WLE, than those with low physical work demands, with largest differences seen among women. At age 30 years, women with high physical work demands can expect 3.1 years less working, 11 months more of sickness absence and 16 months more of unemployment than low-exposed women. For 30-year-old men, the corresponding results were 2.0 years, 12 months and 8 months, respectively. Conclusion Our findings show that high physical work demands are a marked risk factor for a shortened working life and increased years of sickness absence and unemployment. The results are important when selecting high-risk occupations, and expand the knowledge base for informed political decision making concerning statutory retirement age.

Objective This study investigates the role of age for the prospective association between physical work demands and long-term sickness absence (LTSA). Methods We followed 69 117 employees of the general working population (Work Environment and Health in Denmark study 2012–2018), without LTSA during the past 52 weeks preceding initial interview, for up to 2 years in the Danish Register for Evaluation of Marginalisation. Self-reported physical work demands were based on a combined ergonomic index including seven different types of exposure during the working day. Using weighted Cox regression analyses controlling for years of age, gender, survey year, education, lifestyle, depressive symptoms and psychosocial work factors, we determined the interaction of age with physical work demands for the risk of LTSA. Results During follow-up, 8.4% of the participants developed LTSA. Age and physical work demands interacted (p<0.01). In the fully adjusted model, very high physical work demands were associated with LTSA with HRs of 1.18 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.50), 1.57 (95% CI 1.41 to 1.75) and 2.09 (95% CI 1.81 to 2.41) for 20, 40 and 60 years old (point estimates), respectively. Results remained robust in subgroup analyses including only skilled and unskilled workers and stratified for gender. Conclusion The health consequences of high physical work demands increase with age. Workplaces should consider adapting physical work demands to the capacity of workers in different age groups.

The aim of this study was to investigate the association of alcohol consumption and problem drinking on transitions between work, unemployment, sickness absence and social benefits. Participants were 86,417 men and women aged 18–60 years who participated in the Danish National Health Survey in 2010. Information on alcohol consumption (units per week) and problem drinking (CAGE-C score of 4–6) was obtained by questionnaire. The primary outcome was labour market attachment. Information on labour market attachment was obtained from the national administrative registers during a 5-year follow-up period. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we estimated hazard ratios (HR) for transitions between work, unemployment, sickness absence and social benefits. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders associated with demography, health, and socio-economy. High alcohol consumption and problem drinking was associated with higher probability of unemployment, sickness absence and social benefits among participants employed at baseline compared with participants who consumed 1–6 drinks/week. High alcohol consumption and problem drinking was associated with lower probability of returning to work among participants receiving sickness absence at baseline compared with participants who consumed 1–6 drinks/week and with non-problem drinkers: HRs were 0.75 (0.58–0.98) for 35+ drinks per week and 0.81 (0.65–1.00) for problem drinking (CAGE-C score of 4–6). Similar trends for weekly alcohol consumption and problem drinking were observed among participants who were unemployed at baseline. In summary, problem drinking has adverse consequences for labour market participation and is associated with higher probability of losing a job and a lower chance of becoming employed again.

Objective Depressive symptoms are associated with sickness absence, work disability and unemployment, but little is known about worklife expectancy (WLE). This study investigates the impact of depressive symptoms on the WLE of a large sample of Danish employees. Methods We used occupational health survey data of 11 967 Danish employees from 2010 and linked them with register data on salary and transfer payments from 2010 to 2015. Depressive symptoms were self-reported using the Major Depression Inventory. We used multistate data and a life table approach with Cox proportional hazard modelling to estimate the WLE of employees, expressed by time in work, unemployment and sickness absence. Separate analyses were conducted for sex and employees with a voluntary early retirement pension scheme. Using age as time axis, we used inverse probability weights to account for differences in educational level, sector, body mass index, smoking habits and loss of employment during sickness absence. Results The WLE of employees reporting depressive symptoms was shorter compared with those not reporting depressive symptoms; that is, the expected time in unemployment and sickness absence was longer, while the expected time in work was shorter. The shorter WLE was most pronounced in women; for example, a 40-year-old woman with depressive symptoms can expect 3.3 years less in work, 0.8 years more in unemployment and 0.7 years more in sickness absence. Employees with a voluntary early retirement pension scheme showed an even lower WLE. Conclusions Our study showed a meaningful impact of depressive symptoms on the WLE of Danish employees using a multistate framework.

Objectives This study aimed to examine whether high emotional demands at work predict long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in the Danish workforce and whether associations differ by perceived and content-related emotional demands. Methods We included 26 410 individuals from the Work Environment and Health in Denmark Study, a nationwide sample of the Danish workforce. Emotional demands at work were measured with two items: one assessing perceived emotional demands (asking how often respondents were emotionally affected by work) and one assessing content-related emotional demands (frequency of contact with individuals in difficult situations). LTSA was register based and defined as spells of ≥6 weeks. Respondents with LTSA during 2 years before baseline were excluded. Follow-up was 52 weeks. Using Cox regression, we estimated risk of LTSA per one-unit increase in emotional demands rated on a five-point scale. Results During 22 466 person-years, we identified 1002 LTSA cases. Both perceived (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.28) and content-related emotional demands (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13) predicted risk of LTSA after adjustment for confounders. Further adjustment for baseline depressive symptoms substantially attenuated associations for perceived (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.16) but not content-related emotional demands (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.11). Individuals working in occupations with above-average values of both exposures had an increased risk of LTSA (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.52) compared with individuals in all other job groups. Conclusions Perceived and content-related emotional demands at work predicted LTSA, also after adjustment for baseline depressive symptoms, supporting the interpretation that high emotional demands may be hazardous to employee’s health.