Summary: Given that the rationale for empirical antifungal therapy in neutropenic children is limited and based on adult patient data, we performed a prospective, randomized, controlled trial that evaluated 110 neutropenic children with persistent fever. Those at high risk for invasive fungal infections (IFI) received caspofungin (Arm C) or liposomal amphotericinB (Arm B); those with a lower risk were randomized to receive Arm B, C, or no antifungal treatment (Arm A). Complete response to empirical antifungal therapy was achieved in 90/104 patients (86·5%): 48/56 at high risk (85·7%) [88·0% in Arm B; 83·9% in Arm C (P = 0·72)], and 42/48 at low risk (87·5%) [87·5% in control Arm A, 80·0% Arm B, 94·1% Arm C; (P = 0·41)]. None of the variables tested by multiple logistic regression analysis showed a significant effect on the probability to achieve complete response. IFI was diagnosed in nine patients (8·2%, 95% confidence interval, 3·8–15·0). This randomized controlled study showed that empirical antifungal therapy was of no advantage in terms of survival without fever and IFI in patients aged <18 years and defined with low risk of IFI. Higher risk patients, including those with relapsed cancer, appear to be the target for empirical antifungal therapy during protracted febrile neutropenia.

The paper proposes a spatio-temporal process that improves the assessment of events in space and time, considering a contagion model (branching process) within a regression-like framework to take covariates into account. The proposed approach develops the forward likelihood for prediction method for estimating the ETAS model, including covariates in the model specification of the epidemic component. A simulation study is carried out for analysing the misspecification model effect under several scenarios. Also an application to the Italian seismic catalogue is reported, together with the reference to the developed R package.