In rural parts of Africa, dogs live in close association with humans and livestock, roam freely, and usually do not receive prophylactic measures. Thus, they are a source of infectious disease for humans and for wildlife such as protected carnivores. In 2011, an epidemiological study was carried out around three conservation areas in Uganda to detect the presence and determine the prevalence of vector-borne pathogens in rural dogs and associated ticks to evaluate the risk that these pathogens pose to humans and wildlife. Serum samples (n = 105), blood smears (n = 43) and blood preserved on FTA cards (n = 38) and ticks (58 monospecific pools of Haemaphysalis leachi and Rhipicephalus praetextatus including 312 ticks from 52 dogs) were collected from dogs. Dog sera were tested by indirect immunofluorescence to detect the presence of antibodies against Rickettsia conorii and Ehrlichia canis. Antibodies against R. conorii were also examined by indirect enzyme immunoassay. Real time PCR for the detection of Rickettsia spp., Anaplasmataceae, Bartonella spp. and Babesia spp. was performed in DNA extracted from FTA cards and ticks. 99 % of the dogs were seropositive to Rickettsia spp. and 29.5 % to Ehrlichia spp. Molecular analyses revealed that 7.8 % of the blood samples were infected with Babesia rossi, and all were negative for Rickettsia spp. and Ehrlichia spp. Ticks were infected with Rickettsia sp. (18.9 %), including R. conorii and R. massiliae; Ehrlichia sp. (18.9 %), including E. chaffeensis and Anaplasma platys; and B. rossi (1.7 %). Bartonella spp. was not detected in any of the blood or tick samples. This study confirms the presence of previously undetected vector-borne pathogens of humans and animals in East Africa. We recommend that dog owners in rural Uganda be advised to protect their animals against ectoparasites to prevent the transmission of pathogens to humans and wildlife.

Tick paralysis resulting from bites from Ixodes holocyclus and I. cornuatus is one of the leading causes of emergency veterinary admissions for companion animals in Australia, often resulting in death if left untreated. Availability of timely information on periods of increased risk can help modulate behaviors that reduce exposures to ticks and improve awareness of owners for the need of lifesaving preventative ectoparasite treatment. Improved awareness of clinicians and pet owners about temporal changes in tick paralysis risk can be assisted by ecological forecasting frameworks that integrate environmental information into statistical time series models. Using an 11-year time series of tick paralysis cases from veterinary clinics in one of Australia’s hotspots for the paralysis tick Ixodes holocyclus, we asked whether an ensemble model could accurately forecast clinical caseloads over near-term horizons. We fit a series of statistical time series (ARIMA, GARCH) and generative models (Prophet, Generalised Additive Model) using environmental variables as predictors, and then combined forecasts into a weighted ensemble to minimise prediction interval error. Our results indicate that variables related to temperature anomalies, levels of vegetation moisture and the Southern Oscillation Index can be useful for predicting tick paralysis admissions. Our model forecasted tick paralysis cases with exceptional accuracy while preserving epidemiological interpretability, outperforming a field-leading benchmark Exponential Smoothing model by reducing both point and prediction interval errors. Using online particle filtering to assimilate new observations and adjust forecast distributions when new data became available, our model adapted to changing temporal conditions and provided further reduced forecast errors. We expect our model pipeline to act as a platform for developing early warning systems that can notify clinicians and pet owners about heightened risks of environmentally driven veterinary conditions.