Particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter below 10 μm (PM₁₀) forecasting is difficult because of the uncertainties in describing the emission and meteorological fields. This paper proposed a wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA model to forecast the short-term series of the PM₁₀ concentrations. It was evaluated by experiments using a 10-year data set of daily PM₁₀ concentrations from 4 stations located in Taiyuan, China. The results indicated the following: (1) PM₁₀ concentrations of Taiyuan had a decreasing trend during 2005 to 2012 but increased in 2013. PM₁₀ concentrations had an obvious seasonal fluctuation related to coal-fired heating in winter and early spring. (2) Spatial differences among the four stations showed that the PM₁₀ concentrations in industrial and heavily trafficked areas were higher than those in residential and suburb areas. (3) Wavelet analysis revealed that the trend variation and the changes of the PM₁₀ concentration of Taiyuan were complicated. (4) The proposed wavelet-ARIMA model could be efficiently and successfully applied to the PM₁₀ forecasting field. Compared with the traditional ARMA/ARIMA methods, this wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA method could effectively reduce the forecasting error, improve the prediction accuracy, and realize multiple-time-scale prediction. Implications: Wavelet analysis can filter noisy signals and identify the variation trend and the fluctuation of the PM₁₀ time-series data. Wavelet decomposition and reconstruction reduce the nonstationarity of the PM₁₀ time-series data, and thus improve the accuracy of the prediction. This paper proposed a wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA model to forecast the PM₁₀ time series. Compared with the traditional ARMA/ARIMA method, this wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA method could effectively reduce the forecasting error, improve the prediction accuracy, and realize multiple-time-scale prediction. The proposed model could be efficiently and successfully applied to the PM₁₀ forecasting field.

Arid and semi-arid areas in North China are facing the challenge of a rising aeolian desertification risk (ADR) due to the intertwined effects of complex natural processes and intensified anthropogenic activities. An accurate quantitative assessment of the relationship between ADR and its determinants is beneficial for understanding the driving mechanisms of aeolian desertification and for controlling future desertification. Previous studies have failed to quantify the relative role of determinants driving ADR and have been limited in assessing their interactive impacts. In this study, a spatial variance analysis-based geographical detector methodology is used to quantify the effects of geological, physical, and human factors on the occurrence of ADR in an area characterized by mountains and hills in northern China. It is found that soil type, precipitation, and wind velocity are the major determinants of ADR, which implies that geological and physical elements (e.g., soil attribute) and climatic factors (e.g., precipitation and wind velocity) rather than human activities have played a greater role in the incidence of ADR. Particularly, the results show that the interaction of various determinants causes significant non-linearly enhanced impacts on the ADR. The findings of our study will assist local inhabitants and policy makers in developing measures for wind prevention and sand control to mitigate the effects of desertification in the region.