Irregularities in electron density usually correlate with ionospheric plasma perturbations. These variations causing radio signal fluctuations, in response, generate ionospheric scintillations that frequently occur in low-latitude regions. In this research, the combination of an artificial neural network (ANN) with the genetic algorithm (GA) was implemented to predict ionospheric scintillations. The GA method was considered for obtaining the ANN model’s initial weights. This procedure was applied to GNSS observations at GUAM (13.58°E, 144.86°N, 201.922H) station for the daily prediction of ionospheric amplitude scintillations via predicting the signal-to-noise ratio (S4) or via prediction of the rate of TEC index (ROTI). Thirty-day modeling was carried out for three months in January, March, and July, representing different seasons of the winter solstice, equinox, and summer solstice during three different years, 2015, 2017, and 2020, with different solar activities. The models, along with ionospheric physical data, were used for the daily prediction of ionospheric scintillations for the consequent day after the modeling. The prediction results were evaluated using S4 derived from GNSS observations at GUAM station. The designed model has the ability to predict daily ionospheric scintillations with an accuracy of about 81% for the S4 and about 80% for the ROTI.

Geomagnetic storms are one of the leading causes of ionospheric irregularities, depending on their intensity. The 6–10 September 2017 geomagnetic storm, the most severe geomagnetic event of the year, resulted from an X9 solar flare and a subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME), with the first sudden storm commencements (SSC) occurring at 23:43 UT on day 06, coinciding with a Sym-H value of approximately 50 nT, triggered by a sudden increase in the solar wind. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and disturbance storm time (Dst) increased when the first SSC occurred at 23:43 UT on 6 September. The second SSC occurred with a more vigorous intensity at 23:00 UT on 7 September, with the Kp index reaching 8 and the auroral electrojet (AE) 2500 nT. In this study, we investigated this phenomenon using data from Swarm, FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC, and ground-based GNSS networks in East Africa to measure ionospheric irregularities near the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). In this procedure, the total electron content (TEC), amplitude scintillation (S4), and rate of TEC Index (ROTI) were implemented to recognize ionospheric irregularities appearing during the geomagnetic storm. In addition, the Langmuir plasma probes of the Swarm satellites were employed to identify the rate of electron density index (RODI). The results obtained from the different techniques indicate the effects of geomagnetic storms in terms of increased ionospheric irregularities indicated by geophysical ionospheric parameters. This study demonstrates the potential of using space-based measurements to detect the effects of a geomagnetic storm on ionospheric irregularities for regions where ground-based ionospheric observations are rarely available, such as above the oceans.

Sea surface currents are often modeled using numerical models without adequately addressing the issue of model calibration at the regional scale. The aim of this study is to calibrate the MIKE 21 numerical ocean model for the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea to improve the sea surface currents obtained from the model. The calibration was performed through data assimilation of the model with altimetry and hydrographic observations using variational data assimilation, where the weights of the objective functions were defined based on the type of observations and optimized using metaheuristic optimization methods. According to the results, the calibration of the model generally led the model results closer to the observations. This was reflected in an improvement of about 0.09 m/s in the obtained sea surface currents. It also allowed for more accurate evaluations of model parameters, such as Smagorinsky and Manning coefficients. Moreover, the root mean square error values between the satellite altimetry observations at control stations and the assimilated model varied between 0.058 and 0.085 m. We further showed that the kinetic energy produced by sea surface currents could be used for generating electricity in the Oman Sea and near Jask harbor.

This study investigates the relationship between geomagnetic activities and ionospheric scintillations, focusing on how solar and geomagnetic parameters influence ionospheric disturbances across varying time frames and latitudes. Utilizing indices such as Kp, Dst, sunspot numbers, and the F10.7 solar flux, we elucidate the dynamics influencing ionospheric conditions, which are vital for the reliability of satellite communications, particularly in low-latitude regions. Our analysis demonstrates a clear correlation between periods of high solar activity and increased geomagnetic disturbances, leading to heightened ionospheric scintillations, such as occurred during the solar maximum of 2015. In contrast, 2020—a solar minimum period—exhibited fewer disturbances, highlighting the impact of solar activity levels on ionospheric conditions. Innovatively employing ConvGRU networks, this research advances the modeling and prediction of ionospheric scintillations by integrating deep learning techniques suited to the spatiotemporal complexities of ionospheric data. The ConvGRU model effectively captures both temporal sequences and spatial distributions, offering enhanced accuracy in depicting ionospheric scintillation patterns crucial for satellite-based navigation and communication systems. Ground-based GNSS data from 121 stations across South America, collected during 2015 and 2020, provide a robust dataset for our analysis. The study highlights the influence of the solar cycle on ionospheric scintillations, with the years of maximum and minimum solar activity showing significant differences in scintillation intensity and frequency. Our evaluation of the ConvGRU models using statistical parameters demonstrated their potential for reliable ionospheric scintillation prediction. The research underscores the necessity of integrating adaptive mechanisms within models to effectively handle the dynamic nature of ionospheric disturbances influenced by external geomagnetic and solar factors. This study enhances the understanding of ionospheric scintillations and significantly advances predictive modeling capabilities using advanced machine learning techniques. The potential establishment of real-time alert systems for ionospheric disturbances could significantly benefit civilian applications, enhancing the operational efficiency of technologies reliant on accurate ionospheric information.