Local communities play a key role in ecosystem restoration due to their invaluable traditional ecological knowledge. While community-led mangrove restoration has been practiced in Madagascar for decades, the factors influencing the success of the restoration remains understudied. Despite the extensive local knowledge, the complexity of factors influencing restoration success requires outside technical expertise. This study aimed to investigate the drivers of mangrove restoration success in southwest Madagascar. The survival rate of mangroves planted from 2015 to 2022, including Rhizophora mucronata, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, and Ceriops tagal was assessed using the sampling methods for tree planting inventory with circular plots. R version 4.2.2 was used for descriptive statistics analysis. The correlation between the survival rate and plantation density, species composition, and number of participants was assessed using a Principal Component Analysis. As a result, the mean survival rate of the 440,990 planted mangroves, with a density of 4628 ± 317 trees/ha⁻¹ was 82.5 ± 1.8%. Our study showed that plantation density and species composition are not correlated with survival rate. However, the survival rate is inversely correlated with the number of participants. The findings of this paper showed that both traditional ecological knowledge and scientific observations are vital to informing mangrove reforestation.

Despite the popularity of Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes as a new paradigm to enhance conservation of natural resources, evidence of their benefits to people and nature is often illustrated from desk-based reviews, but rarely investigated from the local sites where they have been implemented. We investigated local perceptions of a PES scheme implemented in the Baie des Assassin’s mangroves of southwest Madagascar with particular focus on its perceived future effects. To meet our goal, we first collated socioeconomic and mangrove ecological information through extensive literature research, and key informant interviews with 35 peoples within the 10 villages surrounding the bay to be used as reference conditions. Following this, a workshop with 32 participants from local communities was conducted, using participatory scenario planning to predict the effects of the PES project, and to identify concerns surrounding its implementation. Local communities perceived the PES scheme as a potentially valuable approach for the sustainable management of their mangroves, and perceived that it would address major socioeconomic issues and mangrove management problems in the bay as a result of the carbon offsetting from their mangroves. We conclude that to achieve acceptance and good governance of a PES project by local communities, needs and concerns surrounding the implementation of the PES project need be addressed.