Islands harbour a spectacular diversity and unique species composition. This uniqueness is mainly a result of endemic species that have evolved in situ in the absence of mammal herbivores. However, island endemism is under severe threat by introduced herbivores. We test the assumption that endemic species are particularly vulnerable to generalist introduced herbivores (European rabbit) using an unprecedented dataset covering an entire island with enormous topographic, climatic and biological diversity (Tenerife, Canary Islands). With increasing endemism, plant species are more heavily browsed by rabbits than non-endemic species with up to 67% of endemics being negatively impacted by browsing, indicating a dramatic lack of adaptation to mammal herbivory in endemics. Ecosystems with high per cent endemism are most heavily browsed, suggesting ecosystem-specific vulnerability to introduced herbivores, even within islands. Protection of global biodiversity caused by disproportionally high endemism on oceanic islands via ecosystem-specific herbivore control and eradication measures is of utmost importance.

The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is a pest and a conservation problem on many islands, where its heavy grazing pressure threatens many endemic plants with extinction. Previous studies in its native and introduced range have highlighted the high spatial variability of rabbit abundance at local and landscape scales, depending on many factors such as the existence of different habitats. Modeling of the species can be useful to better understand spatial patterns and to prioritize actions, especially in those regions in which rabbits have become invasive. Here, we investigate the distribution of the European rabbit in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), where the species was introduced during the 15th century and has subsequently changed vegetation composition. Added to the direct effects of rabbits on vegetation, climate change could also have implications for rabbit populations, especially in the alpine ecosystem. To evaluate that, we estimated rabbit abundance in 216 plots randomly distributed on Tenerife island (61 in the alpine ecosystem), modeled the potential current spatial abundance of the species and considered how it might vary under different climate change scenarios. We associated rabbit abundance to a wide selection of abiotic, biotic, and human variables expected to influence rabbit abundance on the island. We found a positive correlation between rabbit abundance and temperature and a negative correlation in the case of precipitation. Hence, according to the models' projections, climate change is expected to enhance rabbit populations in the future. Current higher densities were related to land disturbance and open areas, and a remarkable increase is expected to occur in the alpine ecosystem. Overall, we consider that this study provides valuable information for land managers in the Canary archipelago as it reveals how global warming could indirectly exacerbate the conservation problems of the endemic flora in oceanic islands.

Climate change is causing major changes in terrestrial ecosystems and biomes around the world. This is particularly concerning in oceanic islands, considered reservoirs of biodiversity, even more in those with a significant altitudinal gradient and high complexity in the vegetation they potentially harbour. Here, in Tenerife (Canary Islands), we have evaluated the changes in potential vegetation belts during the last 20 years by comparing them with a previous study. Considering the intimate linkage between vegetation and climate, we used a methodology based on phytosociological knowledge, ordination techniques and geostatistics, using multivariate spatial interpolations of bioclimatic data. This has allowed us to spatially detect the variations experienced by eight vegetation units during the last 20 years and incorporating a set of vulnerability metrics. New bioclimatic and vegetation cartography are provided according to the current scenario studied (1990–2019). Our results indicate that summit vegetation, humid laurel forest and thermo-sclerophyllous woodland are the habitats that have experienced a very high area loss and mismatch index, strong changes, if we consider that we are only comparing a period of 20 years. Simultaneously, the more xeric vegetation belts, the dry laurel forest and the pine forest would have benefited from this new warmer and drier climate, by gaining area and experiencing strong upward movements. These changes have not been spatially uniform, indicating that the elevational gradient studied not explain completely our results, showing the influence of the complex island topography. Effective landscape management should consider current remnants, transition capacity and movement limitations to better understand current and future vegetation responses in a global change context.

Climate change may shift species outside of their current climatic tolerances, which can be problematic for oceanic islands with limited options for species migration. Their alpine habitats, which represent islands within islands, are a special concern due to high endemism rates. The Canary Islands have two examples for such fragile ecosystems above 2000 m, on La Palma and Tenerife. This study contributes an assessment of the Canary Islands’ climatic habitat for 47 alpine plant species under observed climate change (1959–1989 versus 1990–2019 periods) as well as for future projections (2041–2060 and 2061–2080 periods). We analyzed the contraction of climatic habitats and migration requirements (biotic velocity) for each species to compensate for observed and predicted climate change. Our results suggest that temporary climate refugia exist on Tenerife but are insufficient on La Palma, where habitat loss due to historical climate change has already created an area of significant concern: the Cumbre Vieja Natural Park. On Tenerife, current alpine species can find suitable climate habitats in the caldera area and on the Teide-Pico Viejo volcano. That said, migration paths toward these refugia are long and complex, and human-assisted migration may be required. Species-specific statistics to support such management interventions are provided in this study.