Soil organic carbon (SOC) changes under future climate warming are difficult to quantify in situ. Here we apply an innovative approach combining space-for-time substitution with meta-analysis to SOC measurements in 113,013 soil profiles across the globe to estimate the effect of future climate warming on steady-state SOC stocks. We find that SOC stock will reduce by 6.0 ± 1.6% (mean±95% confidence interval), 4.8 ± 2.3% and 1.3 ± 4.0% at 0–0.3, 0.3–1 and 1–2 m soil depths, respectively, under 1 °C air warming, with additional 4.2%, 2.2% and 1.4% losses per every additional 1 °C warming, respectively. The largest proportional SOC losses occur in boreal forests. Existing SOC level is the predominant determinant of the spatial variability of SOC changes with higher percentage losses in SOC-rich soils. Our work demonstrates that warming induces more proportional SOC losses in topsoil than in subsoil, particularly from high-latitudinal SOC-rich systems.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) persistence is predominantly governed by mineral protection, consequently, soil mineral-associated (MAOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) turnovers have different impacts on the vulnerability of SOC to climate change. Here, we generate the global MAOC and POC maps using 8341 observations and then infer the turnover times of MAOC and POC by a data-model integration approach. Global MAOC and POC storages are $${975}_{964}^{987}$$975 964 987 Pg C (mean with 5% and 95% quantiles) and $${330}_{323}^{337}$$330 323 337 Pg C, while global mean MAOC and POC turnover times are $${129}_{45}^{383}$$129 45 383 yr and $${23}_{5}^{82}$$23 5 82 yr in the top meter, respectively. Climate warming-induced acceleration of MAOC and POC decomposition is greater in subsoil than that in topsoil. Overall, the global atlas of MAOC and POC turnover, together with the global distributions of MAOC and POC stocks, provide a benchmark for Earth system models to diagnose SOC-climate change feedback.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) in the subsoil below 0.3 m accounts for the majority of total SOC and may be as sensitive to climate change as topsoil SOC. Here we map global SOC turnover times (τ) in the subsoil layer at 1 km resolution using observational databases. Global mean τ is estimated to be $$1015_{729}^{1414}$$101 5 729 1414 yr (mean with 95% confidence interval), and deserts and tundra show the shortest ( $$146_{114}^{188}$$14 6 114 188 yr) and longest ( $$3854_{2651}^{5622}$$385 4 2651 5622 yr) τ respectively. Across the globe, mean τ ranges from 9 (the 5% quantile) to 6332 years (the 95% quantile). Temperature is the most important factor negatively affecting τ, but the overall effect of climate (including temperature and precipitation) is secondary compared with the overall effect of assessed soil properties (e.g., soil texture and pH). The high-resolution mapping of τ and the quantification of its controls provide a benchmark for diagnosing subsoil SOC dynamics under climate change.