Several studies have shown that smallholder farmers produce most of the food in low-income and developing countries and form the backbone of the country’s food supply. This study examines the extent these smallholder farmers in Nigeria can put the country on the path to self-sufficiency and ensure satiety for household food consumption through their local production. The study also examines food production and their resulting yield based on crop production and harvested area, as well as the percentage of crops produced for food or other purposes. The results show that production of rice, sorghum, soybean, cassava, and yam is low; and their corresponding yields are declining, with the exception of maize, although the harvested area increased from 2015 to 2018. As it is, the findings are a clear indication of inadequate per capita food supply due to low food production, especially for cereals. The study suggests closing the yield gap specifically for cereals, limiting post-harvest losses, and finding a sustainable balance between the uses of major food crops for animal feed to reduce pressure on land resource use. The different states production performance requires special attention to harness the agricultural potential of each geopolitical zone. Lastly, dry-season cultivation should be encouraged through irrigation to enable harvesting two-times in a year. The study offers useful approaches to assess the contribution of local farmers to the food supply of a growing population and provides suggestions for the government, stakeholders, and the international community willing to collaborate and invest in the agricultural sector.

Water is the key limiting factor in socioeconomic and ecological development, but it is adversely affected by climate change. The novel virtual water (VW) concept and water, energy, food, biodiversity, and human health (WEFBH) nexus approach are powerful tools to assess the sustainability of a region through the lens of climate change. Climate change-related challenges and water are complex and intertwined. This paper analyzed the significant WEFBH sectors using the multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. The AHP model demonstrated quantitative relationships among WEFBH nexus sustainability indicators in the Greater Horn of Africa countries. Besides, the net VW imports and water footprints of major staple crops were assessed. The composite WEFBH nexus indices varied from 0.10 to 0.14. The water footprint of crops is increasing period by period. The results also revealed that most countries in the study area are facing WEFBH domains unsustainability due to weak planning or improper management strategies. The strong policy constancy among the WEFBH sector is vital for dissociating the high-water consumption from crop production, energy, environmental, and human health system. Thus, this study enhances insights into the interdependencies, interconnectedness, and interactions of sectors thereby strengthening the coordination, complementarities, and synergies among them. To attain sustainable development, we urgently call all public and private entities to value the amount of VW used in their daily activities and design better policies on the complex WEFBH nexus and future climate change.